Honestly, if you thought the 2022 matchup between Karen Bass and Rick Caruso was a wild ride, the current Los Angeles mayor race is shaping up to be a whole different kind of fever dream. We’re looking at a city still reeling from a literal trial by fire.
Just a year ago, the Pacific Palisades and surrounding areas were devastated by the January 2025 wildfires. That disaster didn't just burn homes; it scorched the political landscape, leaving Mayor Karen Bass in a much tighter spot than anyone predicted back when she was sworn in. Now, the 2026 campaign is basically a referendum on how the city handles a crisis when the hydrants run dry.
The Incumbent’s Uphill Battle
Karen Bass officially kicked off her re-election bid on December 13, 2025, with a rally at L.A. Trade-Technical College. She’s leaning hard into her record: a drop in crime and "unprecedented" strides in moving people indoors. But the numbers tell a more complicated story.
According to recent polling, Bass is sitting in what political consultants call the "danger zone." Her approval rating has hovered in the low 40s, while her unfavorable rating climbed to 49% in some surveys early last year. That’s a massive swing from her first year in office when her unfavorable rating was a measly 23%.
Why the saltiness from voters? It’s mostly the fires.
People are still furious that she was on an international trip when the blazes first ignited in January 2025. Then there’s the report from the L.A. Fire Department that was reportedly "softened" to protect leadership. That kind of stuff doesn't sit well with folks who lost everything. Even though she’s got the backing of the heavy hitters—the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor and the SEIU Local 721—the grassroots energy feels... different this time.
The Reality TV Wildcard
And then there’s Spencer Pratt. Yeah, that Spencer Pratt.
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He officially jumped into the Los Angeles mayor race on January 7, 2026, which was the one-year anniversary of the Palisades fire. He’s not just some celebrity looking for a hobby, though. Pratt’s home and his parents’ home were both torched in those fires. He’s running on a platform of "exposing the system," and he’s been incredibly vocal about the city’s failures.
Pratt’s a registered Republican, but he’s smart enough to know that won’t fly in L.A. He’s running as a nonpartisan candidate, telling anyone who will listen that "business as usual is a death sentence." He’s got some surprising endorsements too, like political commentator Steve Hilton and, naturally, his wife Heidi Montag. While some might laugh him off, he’s got a massive social media megaphone and a very real, very angry base of fire survivors behind him.
The Professional Challenger
If Pratt is the wildcard, Austin Beutner is the "serious" alternative. The former LAUSD Superintendent and investment banker has been positioning himself as the adult in the room. He’s been hammering Bass on the $1-billion budget gap and the slow pace of rebuilding.
Beutner’s argument is simple: L.A. is "adrift."
He’s trying to bridge the gap between progressive housing advocates and more conservative-leaning voters who are worried about public safety. It’s a tough needle to thread. If billionaire Rick Caruso decides to jump in for a rematch—and he’s been "seriously looking" at it—the "wealthy businessman" lane is going to get very crowded.
What Actually Matters to Voters
Forget the celebrity drama for a second. The issues driving the Los Angeles mayor race are heavy:
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- Fire Recovery & Prevention: Only a few hundred rebuilding projects are actually underway out of the 6,000+ structures destroyed.
- The Budget Crisis: The city is staring down a nearly $1-billion deficit, which means Bass has to talk about cuts while candidates like Rae Huang are calling for "fast and free metro" and "housing for all."
- The Trump Factor: Whether we like it or not, the national vibe matters. Bass has been positioning herself as a "bulwark" against the Trump administration’s ICE raids, which plays well in a city where 74% of voters recently backed measures specifically designed to thwart federal interference.
The Road to June
The primary is set for June 2, 2026. Here's how the math works: if someone gets more than 50% of the vote, they win outright. If not, the top two advance to a November runoff.
Historically, open races always go to a runoff, but Bass is an incumbent. She’s got the "machine" behind her. But if the disapproval ratings stay underwater, we could be looking at a November showdown that looks nothing like the one four years ago.
Actionable Next Steps for Angelenos
If you want to actually have a say in where this city goes, you can't just scroll through Spencer Pratt's TikTok. You've got to move.
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- Check Your Status: The deadline to register for a Vote-By-Mail ballot for the primary is coming up fast in May. Go to the L.A. County Registrar-Recorder website and make sure your address is current.
- Watch the Filing Deadline: February 7, 2026, is the last day for candidates to file their Declaration of Intention. That’s when we’ll know for sure if Rick Caruso is in or out.
- Read the Reports: Don't just take a candidate's word for it. Look up the LAFD's assessment of the 2025 fires and the City Controller's reports on the budget deficit.
- Attend a Listening Session: Firms like AECOM are currently holding sessions for the Palisades rebuild. Even if you didn't lose a home, these meetings show how the city plans to handle the next big one.
The 2026 Los Angeles mayor race isn't just about who sits in the big office at City Hall. It's about whether the city can actually function when the next crisis hits.