Walking down Broadway in 1990 was a different universe. Back then, New York City was logging over 2,200 murders a year. It was a city on the edge, defined by the "crack era" and a sense that things were spiraling out of control. Fast forward to 2026, and the conversation around homicides in New York City has shifted into something much more complex. We aren't in the 90s anymore, but if you look at local news or social media, you’d think we were.
The reality? The numbers are actually plummeting.
By the end of 2025, the NYPD reported a massive 20% drop in homicides compared to the previous year. We went from 381 murders in 2024 down to 303 in 2025. That’s a huge win for public safety. In fact, for the first half of 2025, the city saw the lowest number of shootings and murders in recorded history for that specific period.
But here’s the thing. Even with homicides at near-historic lows, there's this lingering "vibe" that the city is dangerous. It’s a weird paradox. You’ve got the data saying one thing and the "feeling" on the street saying another.
The Numbers vs. The Vibe: Understanding the Disconnect
Why does everyone feel so jumpy if the murder rate is lower than it was in the "safe" years of the 2010s? It's mostly because of what's happening below the level of homicide.
While homicides in New York City are down, other violent crimes haven't followed the same script. Felony assaults, for example, have been stubborn. They’ve risen about 42% since 2019. This means people are still getting hurt, even if they aren't being killed. When you see a video of a random assault on the subway, it sticks with you. It doesn't matter that the statistical probability of being murdered is at a 10-year low; that visual of a "slash and run" creates a lasting sense of disorder.
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The Pandemic Spike and the "Great Receding"
To understand where we are now, you have to look back at 2020. Everything broke. The pandemic didn't just close businesses; it shredded the social fabric. We saw a 40% jump in murders in a single year.
A lot of experts, like those at the Brennan Center for Justice, pointed to a few specific "why" factors:
- The total loss of government services and youth programs.
- An erosion of public trust in police following the 2020 protests.
- A massive spike in gun sales and "time to crime" (how fast a new gun is used in a shooting).
Since that 2021 peak, we’ve seen what I call the "Great Receding." The chaos of the pandemic era is draining away. The murder count has fallen by more than 34% since 2021. That’s not just a fluke; it’s a trend.
What’s Actually Driving the Decline?
Honestly, it’s not just one thing. It's a mix of "precision policing" and community-level work that usually doesn't get the headlines.
Precision Policing and Summer Zones
The NYPD has been leaning hard into what they call "precision policing." Basically, instead of casting a wide net that annoys everyone in a neighborhood, they use data to target the literal handful of people—often just a few dozen individuals in a precinct—who are responsible for the majority of the violence.
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In 2025, they launched "Summer Zones." These were specific blocks where they flooded the area with officers during the hottest months when violence usually spikes. The results were kinda wild. In those zones, shootings dropped by 65%.
The "Violence Interrupters"
There’s also a lot of credit due to programs like SNUG (that's "guns" spelled backward). These aren't cops. They’re "credible messengers"—people who often have a past themselves and now work to mediate beefs before someone pulls a trigger.
Research from John Jay College has shown a direct correlation between these programs and reduced shootings. When a high-risk individual has someone to talk them down at 2:00 AM after a social media insult, the homicide rate drops. It's social work as a form of high-stakes defense.
Homicides in New York City: A Borough Breakdown
Not all neighborhoods are feeling the "historic low" equally. The Bronx and parts of Brooklyn still carry a heavier burden.
Historically, violence in NYC is hyper-concentrated. A few precincts in the South Bronx and East New York account for a disproportionate number of the city's killings. While the citywide rate might be 4.3 per 100,000 people—which is incredibly low compared to cities like St. Louis (over 50) or Chicago—the experience of a resident in Brownsville is vastly different from someone on the Upper West Side.
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The Role of the Subway
We can't talk about homicides in New York City without mentioning the transit system. It's the city's circulatory system. When a murder happens on a train, the entire city feels it.
In 2024 and 2025, there was a massive push to put more officers on platforms. While transit crime actually accounts for a tiny fraction of overall city crime, the perception of safety there is everything. In the first half of 2025, transit crime dropped by about 5.6%. You’re statistically safer on a subway car than you are walking on a sidewalk in most other major American cities, but try telling that to someone who just watched a heated argument in a cramped 4-train.
Misconceptions Most People Get Wrong
People love to blame bail reform for everything. It's a favorite talking point on cable news. However, when you dig into the data, the link between bail reform and the homicide rate is tenuous at best. Most people arrested for violent crimes aren't out on "no bail" and then immediately committing murders. In fact, homicides were declining for years after the initial reforms were passed, and the 2020 spike happened everywhere—including in "tough on crime" cities that never touched their bail laws.
Another misconception? That the city is "returning to the 70s."
Not even close.
In the 70s and 80s, the murder rate was six times higher than it is today. We are living in one of the safest eras of New York's history, even if the "vibe" feels off.
Actionable Insights for New Yorkers
If you're living in the city or planning to visit, it helps to move past the headlines and look at the ground reality.
- Check the Stats, Not the Feed: If you're worried about a specific neighborhood, look at the NYPD CompStat 2.0 portal. It’s updated weekly. You can see exactly what’s happening in your precinct. Knowledge usually kills anxiety.
- Support Local "Interrupters": Programs like SNUG and Man Up! Inc. are often looking for community volunteers or donations. These groups are the ones doing the unglamorous work of preventing the next headline.
- Report the "Small" Stuff: Since felony assaults are the actual problem right now, reporting harassment or "minor" violence helps the NYPD allocate those "precision" resources where they are actually needed.
- Context Matters: Remember that NYC remains one of the safest big cities in the world. Its homicide rate is lower than the national average.
The story of homicides in New York City isn't just about the people who died; it's about the 8.5 million people trying to live together in a very small space. We’ve made incredible progress in the last two years. The goal now is making sure the feeling of safety finally catches up to the reality of the numbers.
To stay informed on local safety, you should regularly review your specific Precinct's community council meetings. These are open to the public and provide a direct line to the commanders who oversee your streets. It's the best way to hear what’s actually happening—and to make sure your voice is heard regarding the issues that stats often miss.