If you walk into a coffee shop in rural Iowa right now, the mood isn't exactly electric. Farmers are staring at commodity prices that look like a basement floor, and that sentiment has trickled directly into john deere stock today.
The green and yellow giant is in a weird spot.
On one hand, you’ve got a stock price that closed around $514.40 recently, showing some weirdly resilient momentum despite the gloom. On the other, the company itself is bracing for a "bottoming" year.
It’s a classic Wall Street tug-of-war.
The $1.2 Billion Elephant in the Room
Let's talk about the math that's keeping analysts up at night. Deere recently flagged a massive $1.2 billion pre-tax tariff hit for the 2026 fiscal year. That’s not pocket change. It’s a direct blow to the gut of their margins, especially in the Production & Precision Ag segment.
CEO John May hasn't been sugarcoating it. He basically told investors that 2026 is going to be the "trough" of the large agricultural cycle.
When a CEO uses the word "trough," they're trying to say, "It’s going to get worse before it gets better, so please don't sell everything yet."
Honestly, the numbers back up his caution. Net income is projected to land between $4 billion and $4.75 billion this year. Compare that to the $5 billion-plus they were pulling in previously, and you see why some folks are nervous. North American large ag demand is expected to be down as much as 15% to 20%.
That’s a lot of unsold combines.
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Why the Stock Isn't Crashing
You’d think with all this talk of "bottoming" and "declines," the stock would be in a freefall. It’s not. In fact, john deere stock today is up over 10% year-to-date as of mid-January 2026.
Why? Because the market is a forward-looking beast.
Smart money isn't looking at the 2026 corn harvest; they’re looking at 2027 and 2028. Analysts like Steven Fisher at UBS are already pointing toward a 30% earnings growth spurt in 2027.
Investors are betting that the "bad news" is already baked into the price.
The Tech Play: More Than Just Steel
Deere isn't just a tractor company anymore. They're essentially a software company that sells very heavy, very expensive hardware.
They are pushing hard on "attach rates"—basically making sure every piece of equipment they sell comes with a high-margin subscription to their tech stack. We're talking about things like See & Spray Ultimate, which uses AI and computer vision to identify weeds and blast them with herbicide in real-time.
It’s kind of wild to think about.
A machine can now distinguish between a soybean plant and a weed at 12 miles per hour. That saves farmers up to 90% on chemical costs. In a year where every penny counts, that kind of ROI is the only reason a farmer might actually pull the trigger on a new purchase.
- Construction & Forestry: This is the quiet hero right now. While Ag is struggling, this segment is actually projected to see net sales up about 10%.
- Small Ag & Turf: Also looking at a 10% gain. It turns out people are still buying mowers and small tractors, even if they aren't buying the million-dollar harvesters.
- Dividends: Deere recently announced its quarterly dividend again, proving they still have the cash flow to keep shareholders happy while they wait for the cycle to turn.
The Analyst Split: Buy, Hold, or Run?
If you ask ten different analysts about john deere stock today, you’ll get twelve different answers.
The consensus is a "Moderate Buy," but the range is massive. You've got bulls like DA Davidson setting price targets up at $580, citing the massive share repurchase program. Then you've got bears who think the "trough" is deeper than Deere is admitting.
BMO Capital, for instance, has been a bit more cautious with a target closer to $460.
The reality likely lives somewhere in the middle. Most of the 24 analysts covering the stock are split almost evenly between "Strong Buy" and "Hold." Nobody is really screaming "Sell," which tells you that the floor for this stock is likely solid.
What You Should Actually Do
Investing in Deere right now requires a stomach for cyclicality. If you’re looking for a quick flip, this probably isn't it. The first quarter of 2026 is expected to show an EPS of around $1.90, which is a steep drop from the $3.19 they reported a year ago.
That earnings report (expected around February 12, 2026) could be rocky.
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However, if you're a long-term player, the "Smart Industrial" strategy is hard to bet against. They are miles ahead of competitors like CNH Industrial and AGCO when it comes to autonomous tech.
Actionable Insights for Investors:
- Watch the Q1 Earnings: Don't just look at the beat or miss; look at the "price realization" numbers. If Deere can keep raising prices by 3% to 4% even in a down market, they’ll survive the trough just fine.
- Monitor the "Attach Rate": The real value of john deere stock today is in its software. If farmers stop paying for the tech subscriptions to save money, that’s a major red flag.
- The 2027 Inflection: Keep an eye on the 2027 EPS forecasts. As long as those stay in the $22.00+ range, the current $514 price point looks like a reasonable entry for a multi-year hold.
The agricultural world is messy, but Deere has spent 180 years figuring out how to navigate the mud. They’re doing it again. It’s just going to be a slow ride until the sun comes back out.