Let’s be real for a second. If you look at a map, Israel shouldn't be playing football against nations like France, Italy, or Belgium. Geographically, it’s a Middle Eastern country. Yet, for decades, Israel World Cup qualifying has been one of the weirdest, most politically charged, and frankly, heartbreaking journeys in international sports. They aren't in the Asian Football Confederation (AFC). They aren't in Oceania anymore. Since the early 90s, they’ve been stuck in UEFA. That’s the "Group of Death" every single time you wake up.
Imagine trying to make the biggest tournament on earth when your "local" rivals are suddenly England and Germany instead of Jordan or Thailand. It’s tough.
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People always ask why they don't just play in Asia. Politics. In the 1970s, many AFC members refused to play them. It got so awkward that Israel basically became a "footballing nomad," wandering through different qualifying zones like the OFC (Oceania) before finally landing a permanent home in Europe in 1994. While this was great for the development of the sport in the country, it made the path to the World Cup nearly impossible.
The 1970 Ghost: Why the Drought Lasts So Long
The only time Israel actually made it to the big dance was 1970. Mexico. Mordechai Spiegler scored the only goal in their history against Sweden. It’s been over 50 years. Half a century of "almosts" and "what-ifs."
You have to understand the heartbreak of the 2006 cycle. Under coach Avram Grant, Israel went undefeated. Think about that. They played ten matches against teams like France, Switzerland, and Ireland and didn't lose a single game. And they still didn't qualify. They finished third in the group on goal difference. It’s the kind of thing that makes fans want to throw their TV out the window. They were tied with Switzerland on points, but the Swiss went to the playoffs and eventually the World Cup. Israel went home.
That cycle defined the national team's psyche for a generation. It created this feeling that even when things go perfectly, they still won't be enough. It’s a shadow that hangs over every new campaign.
The Nations League Lifeline and the New Format
Things are changing now because of how FIFA and UEFA have restructured everything. The 2026 World Cup is expanding to 48 teams. This is huge. For a mid-tier team, this is the best chance they’ve had since the 70s.
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Europe gets 16 slots now. The qualifying format for the 2026 cycle is a bit of a maze, honestly. You've got twelve groups of four or five teams. The group winners go straight through. But the 12 runners-up, plus the four best-ranked Nations League group winners who didn't finish in the top two of their qualifying group, head into a playoff.
Why the Nations League Matters So Much
Israel actually did something incredible recently—they won their group in Nations League B. That promoted them to League A, where they’ve been playing heavyweights like Italy and France. While they get beaten up a bit in League A, that previous success gives them a massive "safety net." Even if they struggle in their traditional qualifying group, they are almost guaranteed a spot in the playoffs because of their Nations League ranking.
Basically, they are two or three good games away from a World Cup at any given time.
The Talent Gap: Is the Current Squad Better?
For years, Israel relied on one or two "stars." Think Eli Ohana, Ronny Rosenthal, or the legendary Yossi Benayoun. If those guys had a bad day, the team was cooked.
Today is different. You’ve got Manor Solomon, who has shown he can hang in the Premier League when he’s healthy. Then there’s Oscar Gloukh. If you haven't watched Gloukh at Red Bull Salzburg, you're missing out. He’s the kind of creative spark they’ve lacked for twenty years. He’s 21, fearless, and plays with a level of technical arrogance that Israel needs.
But football isn't just about flashy number 10s. The problem has always been the defense. Historically, the "Blue and Whites" have a tendency to concede "silly" goals in the 80th minute. It’s a lack of concentration. You can dominate a game against a team like Iceland or Scotland, but one lapse in a set piece ruins a two-year project.
The Psychological Barrier
There’s a term in Hebrew, "Frayer." It basically means a sucker. There is a deep-seated fear in Israeli sports culture of being the "Frayer"—the team that plays well but loses in the end.
You saw it in the Euro 2024 playoffs. They had a massive opportunity against Iceland. They were winning. Then, a red card, a collapse, and suddenly they’re out 4-1. It wasn't that Iceland was four times better; it was that once the momentum shifted, the Israeli team looked like they expected the worst to happen.
To succeed in Israel World Cup qualifying, the coaching staff—currently led by Ran Ben Shimon—has to fix the head as much as the feet. They have to move past the "undefeated but failed" mentality of the 2000s.
The Security and Neutral Ground Factor
We can't talk about this without mentioning the "home game" problem. Because of the ongoing security situation, UEFA has frequently ruled that Israel cannot host matches in Tel Aviv or Haifa.
Playing "home" games in Hungary or Cyprus is a massive disadvantage. You lose the "Yellow Wall" of fans at the Sammy Ofer Stadium. You lose the humidity and the intimidating atmosphere that usually makes Israel a nightmare for visiting European giants. Having to play every single match on the road is a grind that wears down even the best squads. It turns every qualifying cycle into an uphill battle before the whistle even blows.
What Needs to Happen for 2026
If you’re tracking their progress, keep an eye on these specific factors.
First, the draw is everything. If Israel ends up in a five-team group with two giants like Spain and Croatia, the path to the top spot is blocked. They have to aim for that second-place finish to trigger the playoffs.
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Second, the health of the "European" core. Israel’s domestic league is decent, but the national team only succeeds when guys like Daniel Peretz (Bayern Munich), Liel Abada, and Manor Solomon are fit and playing regularly in top-tier environments.
Third, finding a consistent striker. Eran Zahavi is the greatest goalscorer in their history, but he’s in the twilight of his career. Someone needs to step up and provide that "clinical" edge. You can’t qualify for a World Cup by playing beautiful possession football and never putting the ball in the net.
Realities of the Path Ahead
It’s easy to be cynical. Most fans in Jerusalem or Tel Aviv are. They’ve seen this movie before. But the 48-team expansion is a genuine game-changer.
- The Playoff Route: Even if they finish 3rd in a tough group, the Nations League "Wildcard" is their best friend.
- Youth Movement: The U-20 and U-21 teams recently had massive success on the world stage (finishing 3rd in the U-20 World Cup). Those kids are now entering the senior team. They don't have the "trauma" of previous failures.
- Tactical Flexibility: Ben Shimon is known for being more pragmatic than previous coaches. He’s less interested in "playing pretty" and more interested in grinding out 1-0 wins.
The journey of Israel World Cup qualifying is never just about sports. It’s about identity, geography, and a relentless desire to return to a stage they haven't stepped on since 1970. Whether the talent of Gloukh and Solomon can overcome the logistical nightmares and historical baggage remains the biggest question in Middle Eastern football.
Next Steps for Following the Campaign:
To stay ahead of the curve on Israel’s qualifying chances, you should monitor the UEFA Nations League coefficients closely. Specifically, look at the "Path A" and "Path B" playoff brackets. Israel’s ranking there acts as their insurance policy. Also, track the minutes played by Israeli exports in the Bundesliga and Eredivisie; the national team's performance almost perfectly correlates with how many of their players are starting in Europe's "Big Five" leagues. If the core stays healthy and the "home" games eventually return to Israel, the 56-year wait might actually end in 2026.