So you're heading to Budapest, or maybe you're just watching the charts and wondering why the Hungarian forint feels like a rollercoaster. I get it. The math isn't always pretty. If you look at the hungarian currency to dollar rate today, you'll see it hovering around 332 HUF for 1 USD.
But that number doesn't tell the whole story. Honestly, the forint has been on a wild ride. Just a year ago, back in early 2025, you were looking at over 400 forint to the dollar. Now? It’s significantly stronger. If you’re a traveler, your dollar buys less than it used to. If you’re an investor, you’re likely trying to figure out if this "strength" is a bubble or a trend.
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Why the Forint is Pulling a U-Turn
For a long time, the forint was the "sick man" of Central European currencies. Inflation in Hungary hit a staggering 25% in 2023—the highest in the EU. People were dumping forints like they were made of lead.
Everything changed when the Hungarian National Bank (MNB) dug its heels in. They’ve kept interest rates at 6.5%, which is tied with Romania for the highest in the European Union. Basically, they made it very attractive for investors to hold forints. This "carry trade" has sucked in foreign capital, propping up the currency.
But there’s a tug-of-war happening. While the central bank governor, Mihály Varga, wants a stable, strong forint to crush inflation, the government—specifically Economy Minister Márton Nagy—has been vocal about wanting rate cuts. They want to jumpstart the economy. Every time a government official hints at lower rates, the forint wobbles. You've probably seen those 1% or 2% dips in a single day; that's usually the result of political jawboning.
Real Numbers: What Your Dollar Actually Gets You
Forget those "perfect" conversion tables you see on travel blogs. They’re usually mid-market rates you can’t actually get at a kiosk.
- Mid-Market Rate: ~332 HUF per $1.
- Airport Exchange: You’ll be lucky to get 280 HUF. Don't do it.
- City Center Change (Budapest): Usually around 325-328 HUF with a small commission.
- Card Payments: If your bank has no foreign transaction fees, you’re getting that sweet 332-ish rate.
Inflation has slowed down to about 3.3% as of late 2025, which sounds great. But don't let that fool you. Prices for services and food in Budapest have "baked in" the old high inflation. A coffee that cost 600 HUF a few years ago is now 1,200 HUF. Even with a "stronger" forint, your hungarian currency to dollar conversion won't make Hungary feel as cheap as it did in 2022.
The Election Factor and 2026 Projections
Here is where it gets spicy. Hungary has a general election coming up in April 2026.
Historically, the government likes to open the spending taps before an election. We’re already seeing "price shield" measures on food and fuel. These keep the "official" inflation numbers low, but they also create a deficit. Experts at Erste Group and ING have pointed out that once these price caps are removed—likely after the election—inflation could spike again.
If you’re planning a big transaction or a long-term stay, keep an eye on February 2026. That’s when several price control measures are set to expire. If the forint starts to slide because of fiscal expansion, we could see the hungarian currency to dollar rate head back toward the 350 or 360 mark.
The "Tourist Trap" Exchange Mistakes
I see people making the same mistakes every time I'm at Deák Ferenc Square. They see a sign that says "0% Commission" and they walk right in.
Look, nobody works for free. If there's no commission, the "spread" (the difference between the buy and sell price) is usually massive. You might see a "Buy" price of 310 and a "Sell" price of 350. They're pocketing 40 forints on every dollar.
Your best bet? Use an ATM from a reputable bank like OTP, Erste, or K&H. When the ATM asks if you want to be "charged in your home currency" (Dynamic Currency Conversion), always say NO. Let your own bank do the conversion. You’ll save 5-10% just by clicking that one button.
What to Watch Next
The MNB is meeting again soon. Governor Varga has signaled that they might finally cut rates in early 2026 if inflation stays near the 3% target.
If they cut rates, expect the forint to weaken. If they hold steady despite government pressure, the forint will likely stay in this 330 range. It’s a game of chicken between the bankers and the politicians.
Actionable Steps for Your Money:
- Check the Varga vs. Nagy news: If the Central Bank (Varga) stays hawkish, the forint stays strong.
- Use a digital bank: Revolut or Wise will give you much better rates on hungarian currency to dollar than any physical booth in Budapest.
- Watch the 10-year bond yields: If they start dropping, it's a signal the market expects rate cuts soon, which usually means a weaker forint is coming.
- Avoid holding large amounts of HUF: Given the 2026 election uncertainty, it’s a volatile "hot" currency right now.
The days of 400 forint to the dollar are gone for now, but in this economy, "for now" usually lasts until the next press conference.