If you’ve spent any time on social media during an election year, you’ve seen the posts. Someone is always arguing that the "two-party system is broken" and that we need a fresh face from outside the Republican or Democratic machines. It feels like a modern problem, right? But the question of whether has an independent ever won the presidency is actually one of the oldest debates in American politics.
The short answer is: sort of. But also, basically no.
Let’s get the big one out of the way. George Washington is the only person you can point to and say, "There. That’s an independent." When he took office in 1789, he didn't have a "D" or an "R" next to his name. He hated the idea of parties. He famously warned us in his Farewell Address that political parties—or "factions"—would lead to "frightful despotism." He saw them as a distraction from the national good.
But here’s the thing. Washington was a unicorn. He didn't have to fight a massive, well-funded party apparatus because those machines didn't exist yet. The moment he stepped down, the system immediately split into the Federalists and the Democratic-Republicans. Since then? The door has been pretty much locked, bolted, and barred.
The Brutal Reality of the Electoral College
You have to understand how the math works against anyone not wearing a red or blue jersey. It isn't just about being popular. It's about the Electoral College. Most states are "winner-take-all." If an independent candidate gets 15% of the vote in California, they get exactly zero electoral votes.
That’s why third-party runs often look like "spoilers" rather than actual paths to victory. Think about Ross Perot in 1992. The guy was a juggernaut. He was a Texas billionaire with a penchant for charts and a very straight-talking vibe that people loved. At one point in June 1992, he was actually leading in the polls against George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton.
Perot ended up with nearly 19% of the popular vote. That’s almost 20 million people! Yet, he didn't win a single state. Not one. When you look at the map, it’s a total washout. This is the mountain every independent has to climb. You can be the most liked person in the room, but if you don't win a plurality in a specific state, you're just a footnote in the history books.
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The Teddy Roosevelt "Bull Moose" Exception
If we’re looking for who came the closest to answering has an independent ever won the presidency with a "yes" in the modern era, it’s Theodore Roosevelt.
In 1912, Teddy was annoyed. He’d already been president, but he didn't like how his successor, William Howard Taft, was running things. So, he tried to get the Republican nomination again. When the party said no, he didn't just go home and polish his monocle. He formed his own party—the Progressive Party, famously known as the Bull Moose Party.
Roosevelt was a force of nature. He survived an assassination attempt on the campaign trail and still gave a speech with a bullet in his chest. He managed to win six states and 88 electoral votes. He actually beat the sitting Republican president! But he still lost to the Democrat, Woodrow Wilson. Even a former president with legendary status couldn't break the two-party grip.
Why the System is Rigged Against Outsiders
It’s not just the voting—it’s the rules. The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) usually requires a candidate to poll at 15% nationally to get on the stage. That’s a massive hurdle. Without the debates, you don't get the free airtime. Without the airtime, you don't get the donors. Without the donors, you can't buy the ads to get to 15%. It’s a loop. A very frustrating, expensive loop.
Then there’s ballot access. Did you know that in some states, an independent needs tens of thousands of signatures just to be an option on the ballot? Meanwhile, the Democrats and Republicans are automatically included. It’s a logistical nightmare that requires a small army of lawyers and volunteers. Most independent campaigns run out of steam—and money—just trying to get their names printed on the paper.
Modern-Day Contenders and the "Almost" Moments
Honestly, we’ve had some interesting characters try. John Anderson in 1980 pulled about 7%. Ralph Nader in 2000 is still blamed by many Democrats for Al Gore’s loss in Florida. Gary Johnson and Jill Stein in 2016 grabbed enough of the vote to make people wonder "what if?"
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But "what if" doesn't get you a seat in the Oval Office.
Some people argue that the rise of the "independent voter" means a win is coming. According to Gallup, the number of Americans identifying as independents is often higher than those identifying as either Democrat or Republican. It sounds like a revolution is brewing. But here’s the catch: most of those "independents" are actually "leaners." They might not like the party label, but they consistently vote for one side anyway.
True "swing" voters who would actually jump to a third-party candidate are much rarer than the data suggests.
The George Wallace Factor (A Darker History)
We can't talk about independent runs without mentioning 1968. George Wallace ran as the American Independent Party candidate. He was a segregationist, and his campaign was built on racial division.
He actually won five states in the Deep South.
This is a stark reminder that when an independent does win electoral votes, it’s usually because they have a very strong, very specific regional appeal. Wallace wasn't trying to win the whole country; he was trying to force a deadlocked Electoral College so he could negotiate with the main candidates. It didn't work, but he came closer to messing up the system than almost anyone else in the 20th century.
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Is it Even Possible Anymore?
Social media has changed the game, but maybe not how you’d think. It’s easier to get a message out, sure. You don't need a TV network to hear you. But the polarization is so intense now that the "lesser of two evils" argument has never been stronger. Most voters are terrified that voting for an independent will "hand the election" to the person they hate most.
Fear is a powerful gatekeeper.
Until the U.S. moves toward something like Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) on a national scale, the answer to has an independent ever won the presidency will likely remain a "no" with a giant asterisk for George Washington. RCV allows you to pick your favorite candidate first and a "backup" second. If your favorite doesn't win, your vote goes to your backup. This eliminates the "spoiler" fear. But guess who has to pass the laws to allow RCV? The two parties currently in power.
Talk about a conflict of interest.
What to Look for in Future Campaigns
If you’re watching an independent candidate and wondering if they have a real shot, look at three things:
- Ballot Access: Are they actually on the ballot in all 50 states? If they’re missing big ones like Texas or California, they’re just a protest candidate.
- The 15% Threshold: Are they consistently hitting 15% in non-partisan polls? If not, they won't be on the debate stage, and their campaign will likely wither by October.
- Regional Strength: Are they concentrated in one area? A candidate who is "okay" everywhere loses. A candidate who is "beloved" in the Midwest or the West Coast can actually flip electoral votes.
How to Make Your Vote Count Regardless
Whether you decide to stick with the major parties or go rogue with an independent, the key is understanding the mechanics. Don't let a "protest vote" be an uninformed vote.
If you're serious about supporting an independent:
- Research their platform beyond the soundbites. Sometimes independent candidates have one really strong idea but no plan for foreign policy or the economy.
- Check your state's voting laws. See if your state allows for write-ins or if they use a system like Ranked Choice Voting.
- Support local independents first. It’s much easier to break the two-party system in a City Council or Mayoral race than at the top of the ticket. Building a "bench" of independent leaders is the only way a national win ever happens.
The history of independent runs is a graveyard of "almosts" and "what-ifs." From the rugged individualism of Teddy Roosevelt to the populist charts of Ross Perot, the path to the White House is littered with people who thought they could break the mold. It hasn't happened in over 200 years, but in American politics, "never" usually just means "not yet." Keep an eye on the rules, because that's where the real battle is being fought.