Politics in the Sunshine State never actually sleeps. While most of the country is looking toward the 2026 midterms, Florida is already deep into the weeds with a series of special votes that are quietly shifting the balance of power in Tallahassee. If you think a Florida house special election is just some low-turnout formality, you haven't been paying attention to how these seats are being used as a literal testing ground for the next decade of policy.
Honestly, these races are where the real drama happens because the margins are razor-thin. We’re talking about a few hundred votes deciding who gets to vote on your property insurance rates or how your local schools are funded. It's intense.
Why Florida House Special Election Results Keep Defying Expectations
Look at what happened in District 35 recently. That race was a massive wake-up call for both parties. In a seat that many expected to stay red, Democrat Tom Keen pulled off a 55% to 44% victory over Erika Booth in the January special. He flipped a seat that had been Republican-held after Fred Hawkins stepped down to run a college.
But here is the kicker: specials are weird.
Voter turnout is usually abysmal—we're talking 18% or 19%. When turnout is that low, it’s not about who has the better TV ads; it’s about whose ground game can literally drag people to the polls on a random Tuesday in January. Keen's win was largely credited to a massive push by groups like Mi Familia Vota, who made over 36,000 calls for a race decided by roughly 500 votes. That is the definition of "every vote counts."
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Then, just to keep everyone on their toes, the script flipped again during the 2024 general election. Booth came back and reclaimed the seat. It goes to show that winning a Florida house special election is like catching lightning in a bottle. You can win the battle of the base in a low-turnout special and still lose the war when the general electorate shows up.
The 2026 Special Election Calendar: Who is Running Now?
Right now, all eyes are on House District 87 in Palm Beach County. This seat became vacant, and the Governor's executive order set off a sprint to the finish line. We just saw the primary results come in on January 13, 2026, and it wasn't even close on either side.
- Emily Gregory (Democrat): A small-business owner from Jupiter who basically cleared the field with 88% of the vote.
- Jon Maples (Republican): A financial planner and former Lake Clarke Shores Council member who took 84% of his party's primary.
These two are now heading to the Special General Election on March 24, 2026.
What’s interesting about Maples is that he’s got the full weight of the Florida House Republican Campaign Committee and an endorsement from Donald Trump behind him. Gregory, on the other hand, is leaning hard into public health and the "cost-of-living" crisis that is currently suffocating South Florida.
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Other Vacancies to Watch
It's not just District 87. We've got several other spots on the board:
- District 51 and 52: These have seen some "no-election" updates because only one candidate qualified or someone withdrew, essentially handing the seat over without a fight.
- District 113: This is a Miami-Dade seat where Republican Frank Lago and Democrat Gloria Romero Roses are currently leading the fundraising pack. Lago has already raised over $138,000. That’s a lot of cash for a house seat, which tells you how much the GOP wants to lock down that central Miami area.
The Strategy Behind the Special Session Redraws
While these individual races are happening, Governor DeSantis is pulling a massive strategic lever. He’s called for a Special Session in April 2026 to redraw congressional districts.
Why now?
He’s waiting on the U.S. Supreme Court to weigh in on certain provisions of the Voting Rights Act. If the ruling goes the way Tallahassee hopes, they could potentially redraw maps to favor Republicans even more heavily before the 2026 midterms. Democrats are, predictably, calling this illegal, but with a supermajority in the House, the GOP has the numbers to move fast.
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This isn't just about "maps"—it's about the math of the 119th Congress. If Florida can pick up a few more seats through redistricting, it changes the national landscape.
Property Insurance: The Elephant in the Polling Room
If you want to know what actually decides a Florida house special election in 2026, look at your last insurance bill. A recent Mason-Dixon poll found that 63% of Florida voters want the legislature to prioritize property insurance relief. Only 32% care about property tax cuts.
Candidates like Emily Gregory in HD 87 are banking on this. They know that homeowners are "feeling the squeeze," as FPI CEO Sadaf Knight put it. If a candidate can't explain how they'll lower premiums, they're basically toast in a competitive district.
Practical Steps for Florida Voters
If you live in one of these special election districts (especially HD 87), the clock is ticking. You can't just show up on a random Tuesday and expect to vote if you haven't done the paperwork.
- Check Your Registration: For the March 24th special election, the deadline to register is February 23, 2026.
- Request Your Mail Ballot: You need to do this by March 12, 2026. Florida laws on mail-in ballots have changed recently, so don't assume your old request is still valid.
- Early Voting: The mandatory window is March 14 – 21, 2026.
Special elections are the purest form of local democracy we have left. They aren't "nationalized" in the same way the Presidential race is. They’re about who is going to answer the phone when your local road is washed out or when the state budget is being carved up. Keep an eye on the results from March 24; they’ll tell us exactly which way the wind is blowing for the rest of 2026.
To stay ahead of the curve, verify your specific district's status on the Florida Division of Elections website. Knowing if you have an active race in your backyard is the first step toward having a say in how the state is run.