It has been a weirdly quiet start to the year for a state that usually prides itself on white-out conditions and subzero survival skills. Up until a few days ago, the Twin Cities were running about nine degrees warmer than average. Honestly, it felt more like a prolonged October than the heart of January. But the free ride is over.
Minnesota may experience plowable snow due to strong cyclone midweek as a massive shift in the atmospheric pattern brings the "real" winter back to the North Star State.
We aren't just talking about a few "cosmetic" flakes that look pretty on a windowpane. A powerful low-pressure system—basically a winter cyclone—is spinning up, and it’s dragging a lobe of the polar vortex down with it. If you’ve been leaving your heavy parka in the closet, now is the time to dig it out.
Why the Midweek Cyclone is a Game Changer
For the first half of January 2026, we were stuck in a "nickel-and-dime" pattern. We'd get a dusting here, a clipper there, but nothing that actually required the heavy machinery. That changes this week. A strong cyclone is developing to our southwest and is expected to track right through the heart of the Upper Mississippi Valley.
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When these systems pull moisture from the south and collide with the arctic air currently diving out of Canada, you get a recipe for significant accumulation.
Meteorologists at the National Weather Service in Chanhassen have been watching the "Greenland Block"—a high-pressure ridge that acts like a goalie, forcing storms to slow down and dump their moisture over the Midwest. Because of this blocking pattern, this isn't a "hit and run" storm. It’s a slow-mover.
What "Plowable" Actually Means for Your County
We use the term "plowable" a lot, but it varies depending on where you're standing. In northern Minnesota, they don't even wake up for two inches. However, for this midweek event, several models—including the European (ECMWF) and the North American Mesoscale (NAM)—are converging on a corridor of 3 to 6 inches of heavy, wet snow.
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- The Metro Area: The Twin Cities are currently on the "buffer" line. We’re looking at a general 2-4 inches, but a slight wobble in the storm's track could easily push those totals higher.
- Central & Western MN: Stearns County and areas out toward Alexandria are already under Winter Weather Advisories. Expect blowing snow and visibility issues as winds gust up to 45 mph.
- The Arrowhead: This region likely wins the jackpot. If you're up in Duluth or Grand Marais, the combination of the cyclone's moisture and lake enhancement could push totals toward the 6-inch plus mark.
The Cold Front "One-Two Punch"
It’s not just the snow. It’s what comes right behind it. As the cyclone moves east toward the Great Lakes, it opens the floodgates for a massive Arctic air mass.
By Friday night, temperatures across Minnesota are expected to crater. We’re talking about a "temperature crash" where the metro goes from the low 30s on Thursday to single digits by Saturday morning. Out in northwestern Minnesota, wind chills could dive as low as -30°F to -40°F.
This is the return of the polar vortex lobes we saw briefly in December. It’s a classic La Niña setup—variable, active, and occasionally brutal.
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Real-World Impacts: Travel and Safety
If you're planning to head "up north" or even just commute across the metro on Thursday evening, it's going to be a mess. The transition from rain or a "wintery mix" to pure snow often happens right during the evening rush.
- Slippery Ramps: The ground has been relatively warm due to our recent thaw. When that first layer of snow hits, it melts and then flash-freezes as the temperature drops, creating a layer of "black ice" under the fresh powder.
- Power Outages: Because this snow is coming in with a bit of moisture before the deep freeze, it will be heavy. Combined with 40 mph gusts, we could see some stressed tree branches taking out power lines in suburban areas.
- Visibility: The "strong cyclone" part of this forecast refers to the pressure gradient. The tighter that gradient, the stronger the wind. Even if we only get three inches of snow, the wind will whip it into a ground blizzard in open areas.
Is This the "Big One"?
Not quite. While Minnesota may experience plowable snow due to strong cyclone midweek, this isn't the historic "Halloween Blizzard" type of event. It is, however, a definitive end to our January thaw.
Looking ahead at the Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 day outlook, the pattern stays cold. This midweek storm is basically the "doorway" into a much more traditional, rugged Minnesota winter that will likely last through the end of the month.
Actionable Steps for the Next 48 Hours
- Gas up the snowblower now: Don't be the person at the gas station when the flakes are already falling and the lines are ten cars deep.
- Check your "ditch kit": If you’re traveling I-94 or I-35, make sure you have a blanket, a shovel, and some extra gloves in the trunk. If you slide off, the subzero wind chills arriving Friday night make a breakdown much more dangerous.
- Clear your drains: If you have street drains near your house, kick away any leftover ice or debris. The initial phase of this storm might involve some melting, and you don't want a localized flood in your driveway before it all freezes solid on Friday.
Keep an eye on the latest radar updates from the NWS, as these midweek cyclones are notorious for "dry slots" that can eat into snow totals at the last minute—or "convective bands" that can double them in a single hour.