Look, if you’ve been watching the 2025 season, you know it’s been absolute chaos. Every time we think a team has finally turned the corner, they trip over their own feet the following Sunday. Going into the second half of the year, expert picks for NFL Week 10 are basically a minefield of trap games and weird international travel. We're seeing the "Indiana Jones" version of Daniel Jones in Indy, the Panthers actually winning games, and the Patriots looking like legitimate contenders under Drake Maye. It's weird.
The board for Week 10 is messy. We’ve got a game in Berlin, a divisional slugfest in the NFC West, and a Monday night heavyweight bout at Lambeau Field. If you're looking for "sure things," you're in the wrong season. But if you look at the numbers, there are a few spots where the logic actually holds up.
The International Wildcard: Falcons at Colts (Berlin)
NFL Berlin is going to be a trip. The Colts are sitting at 7-2, which feels like a fever dream, but they are technically tied for the best record in the league. However, Shane Steichen’s group is coming off a brutal performance where they turned the ball over six times against Pittsburgh. Five of those were on Daniel Jones. You’ve gotta wonder if that was just a "bad day at the office" or if the wheels are finally coming off the wagon.
Atlanta is 3-5 and honestly a bit of a disaster, but they have the top-ranked pass defense in the league. That’s a problem for a Colts team that relies on explosive plays. The historical stat that everyone is citing is that the #1 scoring offense (Indy) has won 10 of the last 11 meetings against the top-ranked pass defense. But honestly? Travel changes everything. The Colts are 6.5-point favorites, but with the neutral site, I wouldn’t be shocked if Atlanta keeps this within a field goal.
Why the Panthers are Suddenly a Problem
I can't believe I'm writing this either. The Carolina Panthers are 5-4. They just beat the Packers at Lambeau. It makes no sense, yet here we are. The reason is simple: Rico Dowdle. The guy has been a human wrecking ball, averaging 173 rushing yards over his last three starts.
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They’re playing a Saints team that is currently 1-8 and looks like they’ve given up on the season. New Orleans is allowing nearly 130 rushing yards per game. This is a nightmare matchup for them. The Panthers are 5.5-point favorites, and while it feels dirty to lay points with Carolina, they are the much better team right now. If Dowdle gets 20+ carries, the Saints defense will be gassed by the third quarter.
Monitoring the Injury Report
You can't make your picks without looking at the training room. It’s getting ugly out there.
- Houston Texans: C.J. Stroud is out with a concussion. That is a massive blow for their matchup against the Jaguars. Davis Mills is a serviceable backup, but he’s not Stroud. The line has already shrunk because of this.
- New York Jets: Garrett Wilson is out (knee). For an offense that was already struggling, losing their best weapon is basically a death sentence against a Cleveland defense that thrives on pressure.
- Buffalo Bills: Dalton Kincaid is dealing with a hamstring. Hamstrings are tricky for tight ends. If he can't go, Josh Allen loses his most reliable safety valve against a Dolphins team that is desperate for a win.
The NFC West Battle: Rams at 49ers
This is the game of the week. Period. The Rams are 6-2 and Matthew Stafford is playing at an MVP level. Seriously, the guy is throwing windows that shouldn't exist. Meanwhile, the 49ers are 6-3 and trying to keep pace in what has become the toughest division in football.
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The Rams are 4.5-point favorites on the road, which tells you everything you need to know about how the Vegas guys view San Francisco right now. The Niners "got right" against the Giants last week, but everyone gets right against the Giants. Facing Stafford is a different beast. If the Rams’ offensive line can keep Matthew clean, they should cover. But it's a divisional game. It’s going to be loud. It’s going to be violent.
Monday Night Football: Eagles at Packers
Lambeau at night. It doesn’t get much better. The Eagles are 6-2 and coming off a bye, which is usually a massive advantage for a team with this much talent. They’re 1.5-point underdogs, mostly because winning in Green Bay in November is a tall order.
The Packers are 5-2-1 and their offense has been "sluggish" lately. That’s the word coming out of Green Bay. They’ll be without tight end Tucker Kraft, which hurts their red zone efficiency. The Eagles defense is playing much better than people give them credit for, and with Saquon Barkley reportedly healthy, I like Philly to pull the "upset" here.
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Quick Hits for the Rest of the Slate
- Lions at Commanders: Detroit is an 8.5-point favorite. Washington's defense is a sieve. Jared Goff has been elite on the road this year (7 TDs in 4 away games). This could be a blowout.
- Steelers at Chargers: This has "slugfest" written all over it. The Chargers have a top-tier run defense, but the Steelers just forced six turnovers last week. Take the under.
- Browns at Jets: A "defensive slopfest" is the only way to describe this. Neither team can score. If you enjoy 12-9 games, this is for you.
Actionable Betting Insights
If you're actually putting money down on these expert picks for NFL Week 10, don't just follow the consensus.
- Watch the Texans line: If Davis Mills starts, the Jaguars moneyline becomes very attractive. Jacksonville has a habit of winning games they shouldn't, and a backup QB is a gift for them.
- Rico Dowdle props: If the line for his rushing yards is anywhere under 90, take the over. The Saints cannot stop the run, and the Panthers' entire identity is now built on his legs.
- The Under in NY: Browns vs. Jets is a battle of elite defenses and broken offenses. The total is 37.5, which is low, but maybe not low enough.
- Eagles ML: Taking Philadelphia at +110 is great value. They are coming off a rest week and have the roster to handle the environment at Lambeau.
The reality of Week 10 is that momentum is a lie. Just because a team looked great in October doesn't mean they won't implode in November. Trust the health of the rosters more than the jersey colors.
Next Steps for Week 10:
- Check the final status of Brock Purdy (toe) and Cooper Kupp (hamstring) on Friday afternoon before locking in any NFC West bets.
- Verify the weather report for East Rutherford; rain is expected for Browns-Jets, which makes the under even more likely.
- Lock in the Panthers spread early, as it’s likely to move toward -6 or -7 by kickoff as people realize how bad the Saints’ injuries are.