You’ve seen the charts. You’ve probably checked your phone three times today already. But honestly, if you’re looking at a generic weather forecast for Dubuque, you’re only getting half the story. Living in the Key City means dealing with a microclimate that can make the official airport reading at Dubuque Regional (DBQ) feel like it’s from a different zip code entirely.
It’s 2026, and while the tech for predicting storms has gotten scary-good, the bluffs still do whatever they want.
Take this week, for example. We’ve been riding a weirdly mild wave for mid-January. On Monday, January 12th, we hit 41°F. If you were down by the Port of Dubuque, the breeze off the river made it feel brisk, but up on the hills near Loras College? It was almost light-jacket weather. Tuesday, January 13th, is pushing that even further with a forecasted high near 50°F. That’s nearly 20 degrees above the typical January average of 28°F.
But don't get too comfortable. Iowa weather loves a good "gotcha" moment.
The 48-Hour Whiplash: Rain, Wind, and the Frigid Drop
If you're tracking the weather forecast for Dubuque right now, you need to watch Tuesday night into Wednesday very closely. We are transitioning from "suspiciously warm" back to "standard Iowa freezer."
Tonight, Tuesday, the temperature is going to tank. We’re looking at a low around 24°F, but the real story is the wind. We’re expecting northwest gusts between 20 to 30 mph. By Wednesday, January 14th, the high barely scrapes 30°F. That 20-degree drop happens in the blink of an eye, and it’s going to turn any lingering dampness on the roads into a skating rink.
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Basically, if you have a commute through the "curve" on Highway 20, be ready for some slick spots.
What’s Hiding in the 10-Day Outlook?
Looking ahead, the pattern stays messy. There’s a clipper system showing up in the models for Friday, January 16th. Right now, there’s about a 60% chance of snow. It doesn't look like a "snow-pocalypse" yet—more like a standard 2-to-4-inch nuisance—but these systems are notorious for strengthening as they pull moisture off the Great Lakes.
By the weekend, Saturday, January 17th, and Sunday, January 18th, the highs struggle to get out of the teens. We’re talking 12°F and 15°F respectively. It’s a classic Dubuque January reality check.
Why the Mississippi River Changes Everything
People from out of town always ask why the weather forecast for Dubuque is so hard to nail down. It’s the river. Plain and simple.
The Mississippi acts like a giant thermal regulator. In the early winter, when the water is still "warm" compared to the air, it can actually keep the downtown area a few degrees warmer than the West Side. But once that ice sets in? The river valley becomes a funnel for wind.
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Ever stood near the Diamond Jo Casino when a north wind is ripping down the river? It feels like the air is made of knives.
Then there’s the "Bee Branch" factor. For years, Dubuque was the poster child for flash flooding because the bluffs sent water screaming down toward the river. Since the Bee Branch Creek restoration, the city handles heavy rain and snowmelt way better, but the humidity in the valley still tends to hang around, leading to that thick, "pea soup" fog we get on winter mornings.
Debunking the January Thaw Myth
We often talk about the "January Thaw" as this predictable event. Meteorologically speaking, it’s not a guarantee, but 2026 is leaning into it. According to long-range data from groups like the National Weather Service in the Quad Cities, January 2026 is trending about 1 to 2 degrees above the historical norm.
But "above normal" in Dubuque still means it's cold.
- Record Lows: On January 7, 1887, Dubuque hit -32°F. We almost tied that in 2019 at -31°F.
- Daylight: We’re gaining about 1 minute and 16 seconds of light per day right now. Sunset is currently around 4:31 PM.
- Precipitation: January is historically our driest month, averaging only about 0.3 inches of liquid rain. Most of our "wet" comes in the form of fluff.
Surviving a Dubuque Winter Week
If you're new to the Tri-States, or just haven't looked outside in a while, here is how you handle the next few days.
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First, ignore the "high" temperature for Tuesday. That 50°F is a lie because the wind will make it feel like 35°F. Dress in layers. If you're heading to a Dubuque Fighting Saints game or just grabbing coffee at Jumble, make sure your outer layer is windproof.
Second, check your tire pressure. These 20-to-30-degree temperature swings cause your PSI to drop faster than a lead weight.
Third, watch the Friday snow. The "active pattern" the meteorologists are talking about means these storms are moving fast. They can start as a drizzle and turn to ice before you’ve even finished your shift at work.
Practical Steps for the Rest of the Month
- Clear the Drains: Since we have a warm-up today followed by a freeze tomorrow, make sure the street drains near your house aren't clogged with ice or trash. Standing water tonight will be solid ice by 6 AM Wednesday.
- Stock the Car: You should already have the basics (blanket, small shovel, salt), but check your wiper fluid. The salt spray on Highway 151 and 61 this week will be brutal once the melt starts.
- Monitor the River Levels: While we aren't in flood season yet, the NWS keeps a close eye on the snowpack upstream in Minnesota. A warm January there means a messy spring for us.
The weather forecast for Dubuque is never just a number on a screen. It’s a combination of bluff-top winds, river valley humidity, and the constant threat of a sudden cold front. Keep an eye on the local radar, stay off the bluffs when the freezing rain hits, and remember that February is just around the corner—and that's when the real snow usually shows up.