It’s been a wild ride watching the headlines lately. If you’ve been following the news, you know things moved fast. Basically, the world woke up this week to the news that the Trump administration is pushing the Gaza ceasefire into a "Phase Two." It sounds official and high-level, but honestly, it’s a massive gamble with a lot of moving parts that could break at any second.
The big news dropped on Wednesday, January 14, 2026. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s Middle East envoy, took to X (formerly Twitter) to announce that the ceasefire deal the President helped broker back in October 2025 is entering its next stage. People are calling it the 20-Point Plan. It’s not just a "stop shooting" order anymore; it’s an attempt to literally rebuild a government from the rubble.
When Trump calls for ceasefire implementation at this level, he isn't just asking for a pause in the fighting. He's demanding a total overhaul of who runs the show.
The "Phase Two" Reality Check
So, what does this actually look like on the ground? It’s complicated. The first phase, which started last year, was all about the immediate exchange of hostages and prisoners. That mostly happened, though there’s still one massive, painful sticking point: the remains of Israeli hostage Ran Gvili. His family is devastated. They’ve been begging the administration not to move to Phase Two until he’s back home. But the White House is pushing forward anyway, signaling that the "Board of Peace"—a group chaired by Trump himself—is ready to take the reins of reconstruction.
Here’s the gist of what Phase Two is supposed to do:
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- Demilitarization: This is the hard part. The U.S. expects Hamas to hand over its weapons.
- Technocratic Governance: Instead of Hamas or a political party, a committee of "experts" is supposed to run the day-to-day stuff like water, power, and schools.
- Reconstruction: We’re talking about a $50 billion project. That’s a "B," and nobody has written the check yet.
Steve Witkoff has been pretty blunt. He warned that if Hamas doesn't comply with the disarmament and return that final hostage, there will be "serious consequences." What are those? He didn't say. But the rumor mill in D.C. suggests that the "Department of War" (the renamed DOD) might not be as patient as the previous administration.
Who is Ali Shaath?
You might not know the name Ali Abdel Hamid Shaath, but you should. He’s the guy tapped to lead this new Palestinian technocratic committee. He used to be a deputy minister in the Palestinian Authority. Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar are all backing him. It’s a bit of a "middle ground" move—trying to find someone who knows how to run a government but isn't tied to the militant wings that started the war in the first place.
The Ukraine Connection: "90 Percent Agreed"
While Gaza is the immediate fire, Trump has been pivoting hard toward Ukraine. Just a couple of weeks ago, right after Christmas 2025, Volodymyr Zelenskyy was at Mar-a-Lago. They sat down for a marathon session, and afterward, the vibe was surprisingly optimistic. Zelenskyy said they are "90 percent agreed" on a peace plan.
But that last 10 percent? It’s a nightmare. It involves the Donbas region and whether parts of it become "free economic zones." Trump’s style here is classic: he’s using the leverage of long-range Tomahawk missiles to keep Putin at the table, while simultaneously threatening to cut off Ukraine's funding if they don't negotiate. It’s a "peace through strength" approach that has European leaders sweating.
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The strategy is different from the Middle East. In Ukraine, the Trump calls for ceasefire efforts are about territorial lines. In Gaza, it’s about total administrative replacement.
Why This Time Might Be Different (And Why It Might Fail)
People get this wrong all the time—they think a ceasefire is just about the guns stopping. It’s not. It’s about the "Yellow Line." That’s the term the Israeli military is using for the new border lines under the Trump plan. If you go across the line, you’re in the "Board of Peace" jurisdiction.
There are some serious risks here:
- The Money: The UN says it’ll take decades and $50 billion to fix Gaza. Trump wants regional partners like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to pay for it, but they want guarantees that the fighting won't just start again in six months.
- The Security Force: There’s talk of an "International Stabilization Force." But who’s in it? No country has volunteered their soldiers to stand in the middle of Gaza and play referee yet.
- Hamas Disarmament: This is the elephant in the room. Why would a group that’s been fighting for decades just hand over their rifles because a post on X told them to?
The "Board of Peace"
This is a uniquely Trumpian invention. It’s essentially a board of directors for the region. It’s supposed to include heads of state from Europe and the Middle East, with Trump at the head. It sounds like a corporate takeover of a war zone. For some, it’s the only way to break the deadlock. For others, it’s a terrifying lack of traditional diplomacy.
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Actionable Insights: What Happens Next?
If you're watching this unfold, don't look at the big speeches. Look at the small movements.
- Watch the Rafah Crossing: If this starts opening up for commercial goods (not just aid), Phase Two is actually working.
- The "Vetted" Police Force: Keep an eye out for news about Palestinian police training. If a local force starts patrolling without Hamas oversight, the transition is real.
- The Tomahawk Deadline: In Ukraine, look for the end of the winter thaw. If there’s no deal by then, the administration has hinted at a massive increase in weaponry to Kyiv.
This isn't your standard diplomacy. It’s fast, it’s messy, and it’s being run like a high-stakes real estate deal. Whether you love the approach or hate it, the "Phase Two" launch marks the most significant shift in the region in years.
To stay ahead of the curve, monitor the official statements from the "Board of Peace" and keep track of the reconstruction contracts being awarded in the coming months. These financial ties are often a better indicator of stability than any political speech. Stay informed on the specific names being added to the technocratic committee, as their background will signal whether the administration is leaning toward the Palestinian Authority or a completely new group of independent actors.