You've probably seen the chaos. It happens every December. A team sitting comfortably in the top five of the division 1 women's volleyball rankings suddenly finds themselves packing their bags in the second round because an "unseeded" mid-major decided to play the match of their lives. If you feel like the rankings are a bit of a moving target, you aren't alone.
The 2025 season was a perfect example of this madness. Texas A&M, led by coach Jamie Morrison, wasn't even the primary conversation starter when the season kicked off. Yet, by the time the dust settled at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, they were the ones hoisting the trophy after a 3-0 sweep of Kentucky.
Rankings are weird. They are a mix of cold hard math, subjective "eye tests" from coaches, and a healthy dose of historical bias.
The Numbers Game: RPI vs. The Polls
When we talk about division 1 women's volleyball rankings, we are usually looking at two very different animals. First, there is the AVCA/TARAFLEX Coaches Poll. This is the one you see on the graphics during a Saturday night broadcast. It’s voted on by actual coaches.
Then there is the RPI (Ratings Percentage Index).
The RPI is the NCAA's "secret sauce" for tournament selection, and honestly, it’s a bit of a headache to calculate. It doesn't care if a team "looks" like a national champion. It only cares about:
- Your winning percentage ($25%$)
- Your opponents' winning percentage ($50%$)
- Your opponents' opponents' winning percentage ($25%$)
Basically, $75%$ of your RPI is determined by who you play, not just how you play. This is why a team like Nebraska can go undefeated in the regular season (which they did in 2025 for the first time since 2000) and still have fans arguing about whether their schedule was "tough enough" compared to the meat-grinder of the SEC or ACC.
Why 2025 Flipped the Script
Usually, the top four seeds in the tournament cruise to the regional finals. Not last year. 2025 was the year of the "Bracket Buster."
While Nebraska earned the #1 overall seed, they didn't even make the Final Four. They were knocked out by a surging Texas A&M squad that peaked at exactly the right moment. Meanwhile, an unseeded Cal Poly team shocked everyone by taking down 4th-seeded Southern California in the second round.
If you were just following the weekly polls, you would have lost your shirt on those matches.
The reality is that the AVCA poll is often a "sticky" ranking. If a team starts at No. 2, they usually have to lose twice to drop out of the top ten. It’s a measure of respect, whereas the RPI is a measure of resume.
The Power Shift: ACC and SEC Dominance
For a long time, the Big Ten was the undisputed heavyweight of the volleyball world. It’s still a powerhouse—don't get me wrong. Wisconsin and Nebraska are perennial fixtures at the top of the division 1 women's volleyball rankings.
But look at the 2025 Final Four. It featured an all-SEC final for the first time in history.
Texas A&M and Kentucky battling for the title signaled a massive shift. The ACC isn't far behind either. Pittsburgh has now made five straight Final Four appearances. Stanford, now an ACC member, continues to be a threat every single year.
The geographic "center" of elite volleyball is spreading out. It’s not just a West Coast or Midwest game anymore.
Players Who Broke the Rankings
Individual talent is often what makes the "eye test" so different from the RPI. Kyndal Stowers at Texas A&M was the Most Outstanding Player of the 2025 tournament for a reason. When you have a player who can terminate a ball from anywhere on the court, the "rankings" of the opponent don't matter much.
Eva Hudson at Kentucky and Olivia Babcock at Pitt are other examples of players who effectively render the opponent's defensive schemes useless. If you're looking at why a team moves up five spots in a week, look at the hitter's efficiency.
How to Actually Read the Rankings
If you want to know who is actually going to win, stop looking at the number next to their name on the TV screen.
Start looking at "Quadrant 1" wins. The NCAA uses a quadrant system to evaluate how teams perform in different environments.
- A win against a top 30 team at home is great.
- A win against that same team on the road is massive.
Teams that stack road wins against top 50 opponents are the ones that survive the tournament. They are "battle-tested" in a way that home-court heroes aren't.
🔗 Read more: Past Winners of US Open: Why Modern Tennis Still Can’t Shake the Ghost of 1990s New York
What to Watch for in 2026
As we move into the 2026 season, the "First Serve" showcase in Milwaukee is going to be the first real test. All four of the 2025 semifinalists—Texas A&M, Kentucky, Pitt, and Wisconsin—will be there.
When those early season rankings come out, remember that they are mostly based on who graduated and who came in through the transfer portal. The transfer portal has made the division 1 women's volleyball rankings more volatile than ever. A team can go from unranked to top 15 just by snagging a star setter and a veteran libero.
Actionable Insights for Fans and Bettors
If you’re trying to keep track of where the sport is heading, here is what you should actually be doing:
- Check the RPI Weekly: Don't wait for the selection show. The NCAA updates RPI data regularly. Look for teams with a high "Strength of Schedule" (SOS) even if they have three or four losses.
- Watch Point Scoring Trends: Rankings don't show you "points per set." A team that wins 3-2 every night is much more vulnerable than a team that sweeps, even if their records are identical.
- Follow the Setters: In women’s D1, a system is only as good as the person running it. When a top-ranked team loses their starting setter to injury, their ranking is essentially a lie until the new setter proves they can run the offense.
- Ignore the Name on the Jersey: Just because a school has a famous football program doesn't mean their volleyball team is elite. Conversely, schools like Creighton and Louisville have built cultures that consistently outperform "bigger" brands.
The rankings are a guide, not a crystal ball. They tell you what happened last month, but they rarely tell you what’s going to happen in December. Keep your eyes on the mid-majors with high RPIs—they are the ones that will ruin your bracket.