Honestly, the term "insider trading" gets thrown around so much in political circles that it’s basically lost all meaning. You’ve probably seen the headlines or the viral clips of politicians yelling about "DJT" stock or mysterious trades made right before a major policy shift. But did Trump commit insider trading in a way that would actually stand up in a court of law?
It’s complicated.
The reality of financial law is way messier than a 30-second news segment. To understand if anything illegal actually happened, you have to look at the specific instances that have set the internet on fire—from the early days of the Truth Social merger to the wild market swings of early 2025.
The Truth Social Merger and the Shvartsman Case
If you're looking for a "smoking gun" regarding insider trading and Trump’s company, you usually end up at the feet of three men: Michael Shvartsman, Gerald Shvartsman, and Bruce Garelick. In 2023, these guys were charged with making over $22 million by trading on non-public info about the merger between Digital World Acquisition Corp (DWAC) and Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG).
Here’s how it went down: Garelick was on the board of DWAC. He allegedly tipped off the Shvartsman brothers that the deal with Trump’s company was a go before it was public knowledge. They bought a massive amount of stock, the news broke, the stock rocketed, and they sold for a fortune. In 2024, the brothers actually pleaded guilty.
But—and this is a huge but—Donald Trump himself was never charged in that case. Investigators looked at the paper trail and found that while people around the deal were acting like characters in a Wall Street thriller, there wasn't evidence that Trump was the one feeding them the tips or executing the trades.
The 2025 Tariff "U-Turn" and the "Great Time to Buy" Post
Things got much weirder in April 2025. This is the event that most people are actually thinking of when they ask about recent allegations.
Early that month, the markets were in a total tailspin because of an intensifying trade war. Then, on the morning of April 9, 2025, Trump posted on Truth Social: “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” He even signed it “DJT,” which just happens to be the stock ticker for his media company.
A few hours later, he announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs for almost every country except China. The market didn't just go up; it exploded. The S&P 500 jumped 9% in a single day.
"These constant gyrations in policy provide dangerous opportunities for insider trading." — Senator Adam Schiff
Critics like Schiff and Senator Chris Murphy immediately started screaming for an investigation. They argued that Trump knew he was about to move the entire global market and told his followers (and potentially his inner circle) to buy in before the news hit.
Is that actually insider trading?
Probably not. At least, not under the laws we have right now.
To prove insider trading, you generally need to show that someone traded based on material, non-public information in violation of a duty. When a President makes a public post on social media, that information becomes "public" the moment it’s posted. It might be market manipulation—which is a different legal beast—but if the information is out there for everyone to see, it’s hard to call it "insider" info.
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Adam Pritchard, a law professor at the University of Michigan, pointed out that unless there's proof Trump told Donald Jr. or a buddy to buy before the post, the post itself isn't a crime. It's just a guy with a very loud megaphone using it.
The Prediction Market Drama of 2026
Fast forward to right now, January 2026. The conversation has shifted from the stock market to prediction markets like Polymarket and the newly announced "Truth Predict."
Just last week, Ranking Member Maxine Waters launched a fresh investigation into suspicious trades surrounding a U.S. strike in Venezuela. Apparently, some accounts made hundreds of thousands of dollars betting on the outcome of that raid hours before Trump officially announced it.
The suspicion is that someone in the administration—or close to it—is leaking classified info to "whales" in these betting markets. It’s a new frontier for financial crime. Senator Elissa Slotkin has been all over the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) lately, demanding to know how they plan to stop people from betting on "private info only the President knows."
The "Fatally Ambiguous" STOCK Act
Why is it so hard to get a straight answer on this? Because the law is a mess.
The STOCK Act was designed to stop members of Congress and the Executive Branch from profiting off their jobs. But legal experts like Kevin Douglas from Michigan State say the law is "fatally ambiguous." It doesn't clearly define what "non-public information" means for a President who essentially creates the news.
If the President decides to change a tariff, is that "information" he owns, or is it just his opinion until he signs the paper? It’s a legal grey area that could fit a fleet of semi-trucks through it.
What’s Actually Happening Now?
Currently, there are several moving parts:
- The Waters Investigation: Focused on the Venezuela raid and prediction markets.
- SEC Scrutiny: Trump Media (TMTG) actually asked the SEC to investigate short sellers (like the hedge fund Qube Research) for manipulating their stock downward. It’s a "he-said, she-said" of market manipulation claims.
- The Trust: Trump transferred his 115 million shares of DJT into a trust managed by Donald Trump Jr. in late 2024 to "reduce conflicts." Critics say it's a paper-thin shield since he still knows exactly what's in the portfolio.
Actionable Insights: How to Protect Your Own Portfolio
Whether or not the investigations find anything, the volatility around these events is real. If you're trading in this environment, you need a strategy that doesn't rely on catching the next "Truth" post.
- Ignore the "Great Time to Buy" noise: Market timing based on political social media is a gambler's game. The "DJT" stock has historically been one of the most volatile tickers on the Nasdaq, often moving on vibes rather than earnings.
- Watch the "Holding Foreign Insiders Accountable Act": Trump actually signed this into law in late 2025. It forces foreign insiders to disclose trades much faster. This might actually lead to more transparency in how international partners trade around U.S. policy.
- Monitor Prediction Market Volume: If you see massive spikes in "yes/no" bets on a policy decision hours before a press conference, it's a huge signal that the market is about to move.
- Check the SEC's Form 4 filings: If you want to know what the people running Trump Media are doing, don't read the news—read the filings. CFO Phillip Juhan and others have sold millions in stock over the last year. That tells you more about the company's health than any tweet.
The bottom line? Proving "insider trading" against a sitting or former President is a monumental task that hasn't happened yet. While the optics of these trades often look terrible, the legal reality usually boils down to the fact that the President has a unique, protected power to speak to the public—and the markets just happen to listen.
To stay ahead of the curve, keep an eye on the House Financial Services Committee's upcoming hearings in February 2026. That's where the next round of evidence—if there is any—will likely surface.