If you look at the schedule and see Chiefs vs Chicago Bears, you probably think you know exactly how that story ends. Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, a trophy case that’s getting a little too crowded. It feels like a foregone conclusion, right? Honestly, that’s exactly where most people trip up.
Football has a funny way of making "sure things" look ridiculous. In 2025, we saw the narrative shift in real-time. The Chicago Bears, long the punching bag of the NFC North, actually finished the 2025 regular season with an 11-6 record, winning their division. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs hit a rare, bumpy stretch, finishing 10-7 and struggling in one-score games.
It’s weird to say, but the gap isn't a canyon anymore. It's a crack in the sidewalk.
The Mahomes and Williams Shadow Play
You can’t talk about these two teams without the quarterbacks. It's basically illegal. On one side, you have Patrick Mahomes, the gold standard. But here is the thing: Mahomes has been dealing with a knee injury (specifically a torn ACL suffered in late 2025) that has cast a massive shadow over the Chiefs' 2026 outlook.
Then you have Caleb Williams.
The comparisons were there from day one—the off-platform throws, the "how did he do that?" scrambles. But Williams had a brutal rookie year in 2024, getting sacked 68 times. That would break most people. Instead, under head coach Ben Johnson, Williams surged in 2025, throwing for 3,942 yards and 27 touchdowns.
People love to argue about who is "better," but that’s the wrong question. Mahomes is the better winner. Williams, right now, might actually have the more explosive supporting cast with Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore hitting their stride.
That Weird Preseason Indicator
Most people ignore the preseason. They’re right to do it, usually. But the August 22, 2025, matchup between these two at Arrowhead was... telling.
Mahomes played about a quarter. He looked like his usual self—8 for 13, 143 yards, and a touchdown to Rashee Rice. The Chiefs jumped out to a 20-3 lead. It looked like a typical blowout. Then the Bears’ depth just took over. They rallied for a 29-27 win.
- The Bears’ second and third strings outplayed the Chiefs' reserves.
- Caleb Williams showed he could handle the Arrowhead noise, hitting Odunze for a score before sitting out the second half.
- The Chiefs' defense, usually a brick wall under Steve Spagnuolo, showed some uncharacteristic leaks.
Does a preseason game in August 2025 dictate a 2026 outcome? Of course not. But it was the first time in a long time that Chicago didn't look intimidated by the red jerseys.
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The Historical "NFL vs AFL" Grudge
There is a bit of history here that nobody talks about. Back in 1967, the Chiefs were coming off a loss in Super Bowl I. The "old guard" NFL teams, led by the Chicago Bears and George Halas, thought the AFL (where the Chiefs played) was a joke.
Hank Stram, the legendary Chiefs coach, took it personally. He treated a 1967 preseason game against the Bears like it was the freaking moon landing. The Chiefs won 66-24. It was the first time an AFL team beat an NFL team.
The Chiefs vs Chicago Bears rivalry isn't a frequent one because they are in different conferences, but when they meet, there’s this weird undercurrent of the "Establishment" versus the "New Dynasty."
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Why the Chiefs' Defense is the Real Key
We spend so much time talking about Mahomes’ magic that we ignore the fact that the Chiefs' defense has been the actual reason they’ve stayed afloat lately. In 2025, the Chiefs' offense actually struggled to put up more than 30 points. They did it only five times over a two-season span.
Chris Jones is still a nightmare for interior linemen. But the Bears have started building a wall. With Braxton Jones protecting Williams’ blind side and a rushing attack featuring D’Andre Swift, Chicago has found a way to slow games down.
If you're betting on a high-flying shootout, you might be disappointed. Recent trends suggest these games are becoming physical, low-scoring grinds where the team that makes the fewest mistakes wins. In 2025, the Chiefs were 0-5 in games decided by one possession. That’s a stat that should keep Kansas City fans up at night.
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Actionable Insights for Fans and Analysts
If you are tracking the next time these two face off or looking at how they stack up in the 2026 season, keep these specific factors in mind:
- Monitor the Mahomes Recovery: With the ACL injury from December 2025, his mobility is the biggest X-factor in the league. If he can't scramble, the Chiefs' offensive scheme has to change entirely.
- Watch the Bears' Third-Down Efficiency: Caleb Williams took a massive leap in 2025 by being more decisive. If the Bears can keep his sack numbers under 30 for the season, they are a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
- Don't Overlook Special Teams: Harrison Butker is still a weapon, but Cairo Santos has been incredibly consistent for Chicago. In a game that likely comes down to three points, the kickers are as important as the QBs.
- Roster Depth Check: Look at the Chiefs' depth chart at wide receiver. Beyond Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy, they are thin. An injury there would be catastrophic compared to the Bears' depth with Keenan Allen and Odunze.
The "dynasty" label still belongs to Kansas City. You have to earn that. But the 2025 season proved that the Bears are no longer just a footnote in the Chiefs' story. They are a problem.