Fantasy football is basically a gambling addiction masked as a hobby for people who like spreadsheets. You spend all week scouring waivers, listening to three different podcasts at 1.5x speed, and staring at your roster until the names start to blur together. Then, Sunday morning hits. Your WR3 is playing a "shutdown" corner, but your bench option is facing a defense that couldn't stop a high school varsity team. You swap them. You lose by two points. We've all been there. It sucks.
Deciding who to start sit isn't just about looking at projected points. Honestly, those projections are usually garbage anyway. They're based on algorithms that don't account for the fact that a play-caller might have a grudge against a certain running back or that a quarterback is playing through a flu nobody reported. To actually win, you have to look at the intersection of volume, matchup efficiency, and the "disruption" factor.
The Volume Trap vs. The Efficiency Mirage
People get obsessed with talent. Talent is great, but in fantasy, volume is king. You’ve probably heard the phrase "chasing points." This happens when a guy catches two 50-yard bombs on three targets and everyone rushes to start him the next week. That’s a mistake. If a player isn't seeing a consistent 20% target share or at least 15 touches, they are a ticking time bomb for your lineup.
Think about a guy like Kyren Williams in 2023. Early on, people weren't sure if he was "good" enough to be a fantasy RB1. But Sean McVay was giving him nearly every single snap. When the volume is that high, the talent almost doesn't matter. You start that guy every single week regardless of the matchup. Conversely, you’ll see players like Gabe Davis—absolute burners who can win you a week—but their floor is literally zero. When you're making your who to start sit calls, you have to ask yourself: am I playing for the ceiling or the floor?
If you are a 15-point underdog, you swing for the fences. You play the boom-or-bust deep threat. If you are projected to win by 10, you play the boring veteran who gets 8 targets for 60 yards every single game. It’s about risk management, not just "who is better at football."
Why Defensive Rankings Lie to You
Most people look at a little green or red number next to a player's name that says something like "OPP: 3rd" or "OPP: 31st." This is a trap. Those rankings are often skewed by one or two extreme games. If a defense played three teams with terrible quarterbacks in a row, their "rank" against the pass is going to look elite. It doesn't mean they actually have a good secondary.
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You need to look at specific weaknesses. Some defenses are "funnel" defenses. They are so good at stopping the run that teams are forced to throw 45 times. In that scenario, even a mediocre WR2 becomes a viable start because the sheer volume of pass attempts will eventually lead to production.
Then there's the "slot" factor. Some of the best defenses in the league have elite outside cornerbacks but get absolutely shredded in the middle of the field. If you have a slot receiver playing against a team like that, you ignore the overall "red" ranking and put them in your lineup. It’s all about the specific matchup, not the team's jersey colors.
The Weather and "Gamesmanship" Myths
Stop worrying about rain. Seriously. Unless it's a literal hurricane or sustained winds over 20 mph, rain usually helps the offense. Defensive backs have a harder time reacting and slipping on wet turf than a receiver who knows exactly where he’s cutting.
Wind is the real killer. If you see 25 mph gusts on the weather report, that's when you bench your kickers and maybe even your mid-tier quarterbacks. But even then, don't overthink it. If you have Josh Allen, you start him. You don't sit a superstar because it's a bit breezy in Buffalo.
The Saturday Night Panic
The worst decisions happen at 11:45 PM on Saturday night or 12:45 PM on Sunday. This is when the "tinker" happens. You see a "sleeper" article on a random sports site and suddenly you're convinced that a backup tight end for the Panthers is going to have a career day.
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Don't do it.
Your Tuesday-self was smarter than your Sunday-self. On Tuesday, you were objective. On Sunday, you’re panicked. Trust your initial process. Most of the time, the "obvious" choice is obvious for a reason.
Advanced Metrics That Actually Matter
If you want to get serious about who to start sit logic, you need to look at Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) and Expected Fantasy Points (xFP).
YPRR tells you how efficient a receiver is when they are actually on the field. A guy might only play 50% of snaps, but if his YPRR is elite, it means the team is looking for him every time he's out there. He’s a "breakout" waiting to happen.
xFP is even better. It calculates what a player should have scored based on where they received the ball. If a running back gets five carries inside the 5-yard line but gets stuffed every time, his actual points look terrible. But his xFP will be huge. That tells you the opportunities are there, and the points will follow. That's a player you buy low on and start with confidence.
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The Revenge Game and Narrative Street
Look, I know it sounds like "voodoo," but narrative matters in the NFL. Players are human. When a guy goes back to play the team that cut him, he's going to play with a different level of intensity. The coaches know it, too. They’ll often "feed" that player to give them a shot at a score.
Is it a scientific metric? No. Is it a tie-breaker? Absolutely. If I’m stuck between two similar wide receivers, I’m picking the one playing his former team every single time.
Dealing With "Game Script"
This is the most misunderstood part of fantasy. "Game script" refers to how the flow of the game affects play-calling.
If a team is a 14-point favorite, their running back is going to get a ton of work in the fourth quarter to kill the clock. That’s a "positive game script." If a team is a 14-point underdog, their running back might be useless because they'll be throwing on every play to catch up.
In that case, you want the "pass-catching" back, not the "bruiser." Understanding how a game is likely to play out—based on Vegas spreads—is one of the most effective ways to make a who to start sit call. Vegas is usually right. If they say a game is going to be a 52-point shootout, you want pieces of that game. If they say it's a 37-point slog in the mud, you stay away.
Actionable Steps for Your Roster
- Check the Vegas Totals: Look for games with an over/under above 48 points. These are your "start" environments. Avoid games under 42 if you can.
- Follow the Targets, Not the Yards: A receiver with 10 targets and 40 yards is a better start next week than a receiver with 2 targets and 80 yards. The 10 targets indicate a role; the 80 yards indicate a fluke.
- The "Three-Deep" Rule: Always have a backup plan for the late afternoon or Monday night games. If your "start" is a game-time decision, and you don't have a replacement in the late window, you have to bench them for an early-game player. Taking a zero is the only way to truly guarantee a loss.
- Ignore "Expert" Consensus if the Context Changes: If a starting left tackle is ruled out an hour before kickoff, that's a massive blow to the quarterback and the running back. "Experts" who wrote their columns on Thursday won't have accounted for that. You have to be agile.
- Trust the Red Zone: Look at "Red Zone Touches" on sites like Pro Football Reference. Players who get the ball inside the 20 are the ones who win you championships. It’s that simple.
Fantasy football is a game of small edges. You aren't going to be right 100% of the time. Nobody is. Even the best analysts in the world hit on maybe 60% of their "start/sit" calls. But if you stop chasing last week's points and start looking at volume and game script, you’ll stop losing to your co-worker who hasn't watched a game since 2012.
Focus on the process. The results will eventually catch up. And for the love of everything, stop tinkering with your lineup at 12:55 PM on Sunday. You're just going to hurt yourself.