Honestly, walking into a Sephora in 2026 feels like a high-stakes popularity contest where the losers end up in the clearance bin within six months. We've all seen the cycle. A celebrity posts a cryptic "coming soon" on Instagram, the internet loses its mind for 48 hours, and then... well, sometimes nothing. Or worse, a lackluster lip oil that feels like overpriced Vaseline. But then you have the outliers. The brands that aren't just "celebrity makeup brands" but actual, legitimate powerhouses that people—real people, not just stans—actually buy and repurchase.
The truth is, most people think a famous name is a cheat code for business. It’s not. It’s actually a massive risk. If the product is bad, the backlash is ten times louder because we feel "tricked" by someone we already like.
The $1 Billion Reality Check
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room: Hailey Bieber. In 2025, she basically won the celebrity beauty game when e.l.f. Beauty acquired Rhode for a staggering $1 billion. That isn't just "influencer money." That is "shaking up the entire corporate beauty world" money.
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What’s wild is that Rhode didn't even start with a 50-shade foundation range. They started with three products. Literally three. While other celebs were busy launching 40-piece collections that nobody asked for, Hailey leaned into the "clean girl" aesthetic and just... stayed there.
But it wasn't all smooth sailing. After the acquisition, reports from late 2025 showed that Rhode actually missed some initial sales targets. Shares of e.l.f. dipped about 7% because the hype was so high that reality had a hard time keeping up. It turns out that even with a $1 billion valuation, you still have to worry about things like supply chains and tariff uncertainties.
Rare Beauty and the Ulta Pivot
Then there’s Selena Gomez. If you’ve been anywhere near TikTok lately, you know the Rare Beauty Soft Pinch Liquid Blush has a grip on the world. It’s almost a meme at this point—one dot is enough to color your entire face and probably your neighbor’s, too.
Rare Beauty has always been the "nice girl" of the industry. They focus on mental health through the Rare Impact Fund, and for a long time, they were the crown jewel of Sephora's exclusive brands. But things just changed in a huge way.
As of February 1, 2026, Rare Beauty officially launched in all 1,500+ Ulta Beauty stores.
This is a massive power move. For years, there were rumors that Selena might sell the brand (valuations were floating around $2 billion), but instead of cashing out like Hailey, she’s expanding. Moving into Ulta means she’s going after the "suburban shopper" who might not live near a Sephora but spends serious money at the local strip mall.
Why some brands are failing (and others aren't)
Ever wonder what happened to those brands that launched in 2022 and just... vanished? It usually comes down to "Founder Fatigue."
Consumers are getting smarter. We can tell when a celebrity just showed up for the photoshoot and never stepped foot in the lab. Brands like Tyra Beauty or even some of the earlier iterations of celebrity skincare failed because they felt like merch.
The winners in 2026 share three specific traits:
- Utility: Does the product actually work? (Think: Fenty Beauty and its 50+ shades).
- Founder Proximity: Is the celeb actually wearing it in their "day in the life" videos, or is it just a paid ad?
- Community: Does the brand stand for something?
The "Fauxzempic" and 2026 Trends
We can't talk about celebrity makeup without talking about the weird shifts in the industry right now. There’s this new trend analysts are calling "Fauxzempic." Since so many people are using GLP-1 medications, there’s a massive demand for products that fix "Ozempic face"—basically, anything that adds volume and "bounce" back to the skin.
Celebrity brands are pivoting fast. You’ll notice fewer "matte" products and more "peptide-loaded" or "volumizing" serums that double as primers. Haus Labs by Lady Gaga has been winning here. They moved away from the "theatrical" makeup of the early days and rebranded into this high-tech, clean-science lane. Their Triclone Skin Tech Foundation is basically the gold standard for people who want their skin to look like skin, not a mask.
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The Numbers Nobody Tells You
Check out how the heavy hitters actually stack up right now:
- Fenty Beauty (Rihanna): Still the GOAT. Estimated revenue is hovering around $600 million. They don't just sell makeup; they sell a lifestyle.
- Rare Beauty (Selena Gomez): Follows closely with about $400 million in annual revenue. The move to Ulta will likely spike this by 20% by the end of 2026.
- Rhode (Hailey Bieber): Despite the e.l.f. acquisition wobbles, they did about $212 million in sales for the fiscal year ending March 2025.
- Anomaly (Priyanka Chopra): This is the dark horse. Because it’s an affordable haircare brand sold at Target, it actually does massive volume—nearly $600 million.
It’s easy to get distracted by the glam, but the business of celebrity makeup brands is becoming much more about logistics and retail partnerships than red carpet photos.
What This Means For Your Vanity
Look, you don't need a celebrity's name on your blush for it to be good. But you also shouldn't dismiss a brand just because a famous person owns it. The "Celebrity Tax" is real, but in 2026, the competition is so fierce that the bad brands have already been weeded out.
If you're looking to actually spend your money wisely, ignore the "limited edition" drops. Those are just hype machines. Instead, look for the "hero products"—the ones that have been in stock for more than two years. If a celebrity brand is still selling the same concealer two years after launch, it’s probably because it actually works.
Your 2026 Celebrity Beauty Checklist
- Check the "Clean" labels: Just because it's "clean" doesn't mean it's better. Look for clinical results, especially in hybrid products from brands like Rhode or Haus Labs.
- Watch the Founder: If the celebrity is suddenly wearing other brands in their "Get Ready With Me" videos, the brand is probably in trouble.
- Wait for the Ulta sales: Now that Rare Beauty is at Ulta, you can use those "Platinum" points to get your blush for free. Don't pay full price at Sephora if you don't have to.
- Ignore the "Phone Case" gimmicks: They're cute for a selfie, but they don't make the lip gloss better. Focus on the formula, not the silicone accessory.
Stop buying the hype and start buying the performance. The market is saturated, which is actually great for you—it means only the best stuff survives.
Next Steps for Your Routine
If you're trying to figure out which celebrity brand is actually worth the splurge, your best bet is to look at product-category alignment. Buy your complexion products from brands that prioritize science (like Haus Labs), your "glow" from minimalist brands (like Rhode), and your high-pigment color from the trendsetters (like Fenty or Rare Beauty). For the best value, check the "Travel Size" sections first—celebrity pigments are often so concentrated that a mini will last you six months anyway.