You’ve probably seen the highlights. Usually, it's Connor McDavid making a world-class defenseman look like he's skating in sand. But when the Buffalo Sabres vs Edmonton Oilers matchup hits the schedule lately, that script has been getting flipped in some pretty weird ways.
People always talk about Edmonton’s star power. It's obvious. You have McDavid, who just extended a massive 18-game point streak earlier this January, and Leon Draisaitl, who seems to score from the goal line whenever he feels like it. But honestly? The Sabres have become this weird kryptonite for the Oilers. Buffalo has actually won 12 of their last 13 games as of mid-January 2026, and their recent head-to-head history with Edmonton is a lot closer than the standings would suggest.
The Ryan McLeod Revenge Factor
Hockey is a small world. Remember when the Oilers traded Ryan McLeod to Buffalo? At the time, it felt like a depth move, but man, has it bitten Edmonton.
In their December 2025 meeting, it was McLeod who basically tore his former team apart. He’s fast—not McDavid fast, but fast enough to cause chaos. In that 4-3 overtime win for Buffalo, McLeod made this incredible spinning pass to Alex Tuch just 33 seconds into the extra frame. The Oilers' defense just... stopped. They all watched the puck, moved to the right, and left Tuch wide open to beat Stuart Skinner five-hole.
It’s gotta sting for Edmonton fans. Watching a guy you traded away navigate your zone like he still owns the place is rough.
McLeod’s return to Rogers Place has become a genuine subplot every time these teams meet. He’s playing massive minutes for Buffalo now—clutched up with 19:00 of ice time in their January battles—and he’s a big reason why Buffalo’s penalty kill has been so frustrating for the Oilers' power play.
Tage Thompson is a Problem
If McDavid is the speed king, Tage Thompson is the final boss of reach. He’s 6’6”, and when he’s on his game, it’s basically impossible to get the puck off him.
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Looking at the NHL EDGE stats for the 2025-26 season, the contrast is wild:
- McDavid has nearly 100 bursts over 22 mph.
- Tage doesn’t have that top-end gear (only 4 bursts over 22 mph), but he has over 30 shots clocked at 90+ mph.
Basically, Edmonton tries to outrun you. Buffalo tries to out-muscle and out-shoot you. When the Buffalo Sabres vs Edmonton Oilers game turns into a track meet, Edmonton usually wins. But when Buffalo slows it down and uses that massive reach of Thompson and Alex Tuch, the Oilers get bogged down in the neutral zone.
We saw this in their January 25, 2025, matchup. Buffalo outshot Edmonton 41 to 34. Stuart Skinner had to make 39 saves just to keep the Oilers in it. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins eventually saved the day with two goals, but Buffalo’s ability to sustain pressure in the offensive zone (holding 44% zone time in some stretches) is something most teams just can't do against Edmonton.
Why the Oilers Struggle at the KeyBank Center
There’s a weird hex on the Oilers when they fly into Buffalo. They’ve dropped four of their last five games at the KeyBank Center.
Why? It usually comes down to "sloppy hockey."
In March 2024, the Oilers blew a 2-0 lead in Buffalo. They let Jacob Bryson—a defenseman who isn't exactly a prolific goal scorer—tie the game late in the third. Then they lost in a shootout.
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Last night's vibes (metaphorically speaking) aren't much better. The Oilers are currently deadlocked with Vegas at the top of the Pacific Division with 54 points, but their January has been a roller coaster. They lost a heartbreaker to the Kings in a shootout on January 10, despite Draisaitl netting two goals.
The Sabres, meanwhile, are the hottest team in the league. They just dismantled the Rangers 5-2 at Madison Square Garden. Mattias Samuelsson is scoring shorthanded goals, Jason Zucker is healthy and producing, and their goaltending—whether it's Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen or the surging Colten Ellis—has been surprisingly sturdy.
The Goaltending Chess Match
Speaking of goalies, this is where the Buffalo Sabres vs Edmonton Oilers games are usually won or lost.
- Stuart Skinner: He’s been the backbone for Edmonton, but he’s prone to "the one bad goal." We saw it with the Tuch overtime winner where he got beat five-hole.
- Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: UPL is finally living up to the hype. He’s got a .904 save percentage and has been huge in one-goal games.
- The Wildcards: With guys like Alex Lyon on IR recently, Buffalo has relied on Colten Ellis, who stepped up big against the Rangers.
If you’re betting on this matchup, you’re basically betting on whether Skinner can outplay the Buffalo system. Buffalo doesn't just shoot; they screen. They use their size (Tuch and Thompson) to park in front of the net, making Skinner’s life a living nightmare.
Tactical Breakdown: What Most People Miss
Most analysts focus on the 1-on-1 of McDavid vs. Dahlin. That’s a mistake.
The real battle is the Sabres' second pair defense against the Oilers' bottom six. When the Oilers' depth scoring disappears—which it tends to do in January—they become a one-line team.
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In their recent 3-2 loss to Buffalo, the Oilers' offense sputtered because they couldn't get anything going against Bowen Byram and Owen Power. Byram, in particular, has been a transition monster. He’s a big reason Buffalo’s winning streak reached double digits. He moves the puck out of the zone so fast that McDavid doesn't have time to set up the high-furl forecheck.
Buffalo’s Secret Weapon: The Power Play Refinement
Buffalo used to have a stagnant power play. Not anymore. With Rasmus Dahlin at the point and Thompson on the left circle, they’ve become much more efficient. In the January 8 win over the Rangers, they went 1-for-2 on the man advantage. If they can force Edmonton into the box—which isn't hard when Darnell Nurse is playing aggressive minutes—they will punish them.
Actionable Insights for the Next Matchup
If you're following the Buffalo Sabres vs Edmonton Oilers rivalry, keep an eye on these three specific factors:
- The First Five Minutes: Edmonton is notorious for starting slow in Buffalo. If Buffalo scores first (like Alex Tuch did in the January '25 game), the Oilers' frustration levels skyrocket.
- The "Former Team" Curse: Watch Ryan McLeod. He plays with a chip on his shoulder against the Blue and Orange. His speed matches Edmonton's pace, which neutralizes one of their biggest advantages.
- Shot Volume: Buffalo is currently one of the highest-volume shooting teams in the league. If they hit the 40-shot mark, Stuart Skinner’s save percentage usually dips under the pressure.
The Sabres aren't the "easy win" they were three years ago. They are a big, fast, and remarkably confident group right now. Edmonton might have the best player in the world, but Buffalo has the momentum.
Watch the neutral zone. If the Sabres can keep the Oilers from building speed through the middle of the ice, expect another upset. The Oilers need to find a way to stop the "puck watching" that cost them the December overtime game. If they don't, the Sabres' winning streak is going to keep rolling right through the Pacific Division leaders.