It is mid-January, and if you’re a Cleveland fan, you’re probably already staring at the calendar waiting for the snow to melt. January 17, 2026, isn't exactly a day for "play ball," but in the world of front-office maneuvering and rotation projections, it’s everything. People keep asking about the Cleveland Guardians pitcher today—specifically, who is going to be the guy when the lights finally come up at Progressive Field in April?
For years, that answer was Shane Bieber. Easy. Automatic. But things feel different now, don't they?
The landscape has shifted. Bieber is officially a memory in Cleveland, having opted into a $16-million deal to stay with the Toronto Blue Jays after that mid-season trade in '25. It's weird seeing him in bird feathers, but Cleveland’s "pitching factory" doesn't stop just because a Cy Young winner leaves. Right now, the focus has shifted entirely to a 6-foot-6 mountain of a man named Gavin Williams.
Gavin Williams: The Ace Hiding in Plain Sight
If you looked at the 2025 stats, you saw it. Gavin Williams didn't just survive his second full year; he dominated it. He finished the season with a 3.06 ERA and a 12-5 record. That’s not "prospect" stuff anymore. That is "top of the rotation" stuff.
Honestly, the way he finished the year was terrifying for the rest of the AL Central. Over his last seven starts of 2025, his ERA was a microscopic 2.04. He’s throwing a four-seamer that averages 96.6 mph, but it’s the curveball—which held hitters to a .155 average—that makes people look silly. When you talk about the Cleveland Guardians pitcher today, you’re talking about a guy who has finally matched his elite "stuff" with actual command.
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Is he the definitive number one?
Well, Tanner Bibee might have something to say about that. Bibee is the workhorse. Last year, he chewed up 182.1 innings. Sure, his ERA (4.24) was a bit higher than Williams’, but the guy is a lock for 30+ starts and double-digit wins. He’s the stabilizer. If Williams is the lightning, Bibee is the steady rain that just keeps coming.
The Rotation Hierarchy as of January 2026
It’s fun to look at the depth chart right now. Stephen Vogt has a "problem," but it’s the kind of problem every other manager in baseball would kill for.
- Gavin Williams: The projected Opening Day starter. He’s the high-ceiling monster.
- Tanner Bibee: The "1B" to Williams' "1A." Total consistency.
- Slade Cecconi: A name that’s gaining a lot of steam in camp chatter.
- Joey Cantillo: The lefty with the deceptive delivery who stepped up late in '25.
- Logan Allen: Still fighting to keep that spot, but the talent is undeniable.
The Guardians didn't just sit on their hands this winter, either. They’ve been active on the fringes, signing guys like Cristofer Brujan and Victor Marin to minor league deals just two days ago. They are obsessed with depth. They know better than anyone that "five starters" is a myth. You need ten.
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The Shane Bieber Void (And Why It Doesn't Matter)
Look, losing Bieber sucked. He was the face of the franchise's pitching for half a decade. But the Blue Jays move—sending Khal Stephen back to Cleveland—was a classic Guardians trade. They sold high on a veteran and got younger.
People were worried about the leadership, but Carl Willis is still the pitching coach. That’s the secret sauce. As long as Willis is in that dugout, Cleveland will keep turning "who is that guy?" into "how did he just strike out the side?"
We should probably talk about the bullpen for a second, too. Cade Smith is likely the man to take over the closer role now that Emmanuel Clase’s situation has shifted. The team also snagged Colin Holderman from Pittsburgh and Shawn Armstrong from Texas this offseason. They’re building a bridge to the late innings that looks like a fortress.
What to Watch This Spring
If you’re tracking the Cleveland Guardians pitcher today because you're worried about injuries, the report is relatively clean compared to last year’s disaster. Andrew Walters is still recovering from lat surgery, but there’s a quiet optimism he could be back sooner than the mid-season projections suggested.
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The most exciting thing? The kids. Parker Messick and Khal Stephen (the Bieber prize) are lurking in the high minors. If any of the main five stumble in April, these guys are ready to teleport to Cleveland.
The Cleveland Guardians are currently projected to win 85-88 games again in 2026. Why? Because the pitching doesn't rebuild. It reloads. Gavin Williams isn't just a replacement for what they lost; he might actually be an upgrade in terms of raw power.
Next Steps for Guardians Fans:
- Monitor Velocity: Keep an eye on Gavin Williams’ early spring bullpen sessions in February. If he’s sitting 97-98 mph early, he’s ready for a Cy Young-caliber run.
- Check the 40-man: Watch for any more minor league invites. The Guardians love finding a random right-hander with a 100-mph sinker in January.
- Draft Early: In fantasy leagues, Bibee is the "safe" pick for innings, but Williams is the guy who will win you your league with strikeouts.