If you spent any time on Tremont Street or scrolling through local subreddits last year, you probably heard the same thing over and over: "Is Josh Kraft actually going to do it?" There was this palpable tension, a sort of collective breath-holding, as the city braced for a heavyweight fight. People love a David vs. Goliath story, or in this case, a Mayor vs. Philanthropist-Scion story. But when you look back at the boston mayor election polls, the narrative the media tried to sell didn't quite match the reality on the ground.
It was a landslide.
Honestly, calling it a "race" toward the end feels like a stretch. By the time November 4, 2025, rolled around, Michelle Wu wasn't just winning; she was running a victory lap. She secured over 93% of the vote. That’s the kind of margin you usually only see in places where voting isn't actually optional. But in Boston, it was a statement. It was the highest vote share any mayoral candidate had received since 1874. Think about that for a second. We haven't seen a mandate like this since the year the first zoo opened in the U.S.
The "Kraft Surge" That Never Quite Happened
Early on, things looked different. In February 2025, Emerson College released a poll that had political junkies doing double-takes. Wu was at 43%, and Josh Kraft was at 29%. A 14-point gap sounds like a lot, sure, but in the world of incumbent politics, it’s a "danger zone."
Kraft had the name recognition. He had the backing of his father, Robert Kraft. He had more money than most people knew what to do with. His campaign committee and the "Your City, Your Future" Super PAC dropped a combined $8.7 million before the primary. That is an absurd amount of money for a municipal race. Wu, by comparison, spent about $1.1 million.
But money doesn't always buy momentum. By September, that 14-point lead had ballooned into a 50-point chasm. The Emerson poll from September 2-3 showed Wu at 72% and Kraft stuck at 22%.
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What happened? Basically, Wu solidified her base in a way Kraft couldn't touch. In February, white voters were split almost down the middle. By September, they broke for Wu 74% to 22%. Her support among Black voters hit 79%, and among Asian voters, it was a staggering 81%.
Why the Polls Shifted So Dramatically
People often ask why the boston mayor election polls moved so much in just six months. It wasn't just one thing. It was a combination of Wu’s "stay the course" strategy and Kraft’s struggle to define a clear alternative.
Wu ran on her record. She talked about fare-free bus lines and the "slow zone" removals on the T. She leaned hard into her housing policy, claiming her administration had invested more in affordable housing than any other in the city's history. These aren't just talking points; they were tangible things people saw on their morning commutes.
Kraft tried to hit her on the "sanctuary city" policies and the redevelopment of White Stadium. He called the stadium plan too expensive and promised a version at a "fraction of the cost." But the polling showed he was out of step with the voters he needed. 67% of voters actually approved of Wu’s refusal to drop sanctuary policies. 48% supported the White Stadium redevelopment.
The biggest kicker? Threats to democracy. A third of Boston voters listed that as their top issue. In a climate where national politics feels like a fever dream, Wu positioned herself as the stable, progressive shield against the chaos of the federal administration. Kraft, despite his philanthropic work, struggled to shake the "outsider with a big checkbook" label.
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The September Primary: The Final Nail
The preliminary election on September 9 was the real ending, even if the general election was still weeks away.
- Michelle Wu: 71.85% (66,859 votes)
- Josh Kraft: 23.08% (21,481 votes)
- Domingos DaRosa: 2.61%
- Robert Cappucci: 2.25%
The gap was so wide—over 48 points—that Kraft did something almost unheard of in Boston politics. He quit. On September 12, just three days after the primary, he withdrew from the race.
Imagine spending nearly $9 million to get 23% of the vote. It’s a tough pill to swallow. Kraft’s withdrawal meant Wu would be the first incumbent to run unopposed in a general election since Tom Menino in 1997.
What This Means for Boston’s Future
Now that the dust has settled on the 2025 cycle, we’re looking at a City Hall that has a massive mandate. When you win with 93% of the vote, you don't just have a seat at the table; you own the table.
But it’s not all sunshine and rainbows. The boston mayor election polls also showed some deep-seated anxieties. 46% of voters still think Boston Public Schools are on the wrong track. While that’s an improvement from the 54% who felt that way in February, it’s still a huge chunk of the population that isn't happy with how their kids are being educated.
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Then there's the bike lane debate. Boston is perfectly split on this. 35% say there are too many, 35% say there are enough, and 30% say there aren't enough. It’s the ultimate "you can't please everyone" scenario. Wu has doubled down on reducing car dependence, but a significant portion of the city is still hitting the brakes on that vision.
Actionable Insights for the Next Cycle
If you’re a political junkie or someone thinking about running in 2029, here are the real takeaways from this mess:
- Incumbency is a Fortress: In Boston, beating an incumbent is like trying to move the Prudential Tower with a shovel. The last time it happened was 1949. If you're going to challenge the sitting mayor, you need more than a famous last name and a big bank account.
- The "Safety" Factor Matters: 45% of voters feel safer than they did four years ago. In an era where "crime" is a constant headline, being able to point to record-low gun violence numbers is a winning hand.
- Money Isn't Everything: Kraft outspent Wu nearly 8-to-1. He still lost by 50 points. Local politics is still about doors knocked and neighborhoods won, not just TV ads and mailers.
If you want to stay informed on how this mandate is actually being used, keep a close eye on the City Council. While Wu ran unopposed, the Council races were much tighter. Ruthzee Louijeune, Henry Santana, Erin Murphy, and Julia Mejia all kept their at-large seats, but the internal dynamics of the Council will be the only real check on Wu’s power over the next four years.
Keep your eyes on the upcoming budget hearings in April. That’s where the "bold investments" Wu promised during the campaign will actually have to be paid for. If you care about school funding or those controversial bike lanes, that’s when you need to show up at City Hall or log onto the Zoom stream. The polls are closed, but the work is just starting.