You’ve seen the photo. The one where the Vice President is standing just a few inches behind the President, nodding, looking serious, maybe holding a briefing folder. It looks like the ultimate apprenticeship. You’re in the room where it happens. You see the classified cables. You know the "why" behind the "what." Naturally, the next logical step is moving your desk about fifty feet down the hall into the Oval Office.
Except, history shows it’s actually more like trying to jump from a moving train onto another moving train going the opposite direction.
Right now, in early 2026, the buzz around a vice president for president run is already reaching a fever pitch. JD Vance, just a year into his term, is already being sized up as the heir apparent for 2028. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris is out there on a swing-state book tour, proving that once you’ve held the second-highest office, the itch to lead never really goes away. But why is it so hard to actually win the top spot?
The "Curse" of the Sitting Vice President
Honestly, the stats are kinda brutal. If you look at the last 188 years, only one sitting VP has been directly elected to the presidency: George H.W. Bush in 1988. That’s it. Everyone else either lost (think Al Gore in 2000 or Richard Nixon in 1960) or had to wait years after leaving office to make a comeback, like Joe Biden did in 2020.
Why? Because being Vice President is a double-edged sword.
You get all the blame for the administration's screw-ups and almost none of the credit for the wins. If the economy tanks, you're the face of the failure. If the economy booms, the President gets the ticker-tape parade. You’re trapped in a "loyalty trap." You can't disagree with the boss without looking like a traitor, but if you agree with everything, you look like a "yes man" with no vision of your own.
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The Successors Who Stepped Up
It’s different when tragedy strikes. Nine VPs have become president because the guy at the top died or resigned.
- Harry Truman: Only VP for 82 days before FDR passed. He had to decide on the atomic bomb having barely been briefed on it.
- Lyndon B. Johnson: Thrust into power after the JFK assassination. He used the momentum to pass the Civil Rights Act, but the Vietnam War eventually crushed his popularity.
- Gerald Ford: The only person to serve as both VP and President without ever being elected to either office by the Electoral College.
JD Vance and the 2026 Midterm Litmus Test
Fast forward to today. As we hit the ground running in 2026, JD Vance is in a unique position. He was recently named the RNC finance chair—the first sitting VP to ever hold that job. He's basically the Republican Party’s "fundraiser-in-chief" for the 2026 midterms.
This is smart. Very smart.
By helping House and Senate candidates win their races this year, he’s building a massive bank of "political IOUs." If you're a Congressman who won a tight race because Vance showed up to your rally and brought the donor money with him, you're probably going to endorse him for president in 2028.
But there's a risk. Vance has to balance the "MAGA" base that got him there with the broader appeal needed for a national general election. We see him doing this right now by leading the U.S. delegation to the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy. It’s "statesman" training. He’s shifting from the "Hillbilly Elegy" author and combat veteran to a global figure. Whether that translates to a successful vice president for president bid remains the billion-dollar question.
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What People Get Wrong About the Transition
Most people think the VP just "inherits" the party. Not true.
Look at what happened with Kamala Harris in 2024. Despite having the full backing of the party establishment after Biden stepped aside, she faced a massive uphill battle. You don't just get the President’s voters by osmosis. You have to earn them, and often, you have to do it while distancing yourself from the very person who picked you.
It's a weird dance. You have to say, "The President did a great job, but I’m going to do things differently." If you go too far, you’re disloyal. If you don’t go far enough, you’re just "Biden 2.0" or "Trump 2.0."
The Identity Crisis
VPs often struggle to find their own voice. Hubert Humphrey in 1968 is the classic example. He hated the Vietnam War but felt he couldn't speak out against LBJ. By the time he finally broke away and called for a bombing halt, it was too late. He lost to Nixon by a hair.
The Road to 2028 Starts in 2026
If you’re watching the news this week, you’re seeing the 2028 primary happening in slow motion.
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- The Book Tours: Kamala Harris is in the swing states. Gavin Newsom and Josh Shapiro are dropping memoirs in February.
- The Endorsements: Outgoing Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin just publicly backed Vance for 2028.
- The Speeches: AOC is making moves, signaling that the "outsider" lane is still very much open.
The vice president for president path is the most traditional route, but in a world of viral TikToks and outsider populism, tradition might be a liability. People want "new." They want "fresh." It’s hard to look fresh when you’ve been sitting in the West Wing for four years.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Election Cycle
If you're trying to figure out who the next President will be, stop looking at the polls and start looking at these three things:
- Fundraising Coalitions: Watch who the big donors are sticking with during the midterms. If Vance keeps the RNC coffers full, he’s the frontrunner.
- Legislative Wins: Does the VP have a "signature" project? For Vance, it's revitalizing manufacturing and border security. If those policies show real-world results by 2027, he has a record to run on.
- The "Vibe" Shift: Can the VP move from being a "deputy" to a "commander"? This usually happens during a crisis. Watch how they handle the next international incident or economic hiccup.
The transition from vice president for president is a grueling, 24-month marathon that starts the moment the midterm ballots are counted. It's about shedding the "Number Two" label without looking like you're stabbing the "Number One" in the back.
It’s the hardest trick in American politics.
Key Next Steps for Political Observers:
- Track the 2026 midterm results specifically in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin; these will be the VP's primary testing grounds.
- Monitor the "memoir cycle" in February 2026 to see how potential challengers are framing their own narratives against the sitting administration.
- Watch the upcoming 2026 Winter Olympics coverage to see how the Vice President handles the international stage without the President present.