You’ve finally booked the flight to Princess Juliana. You’re dreaming of Maho Beach, that turquoise water, and maybe a few too many Guavaberries. But then you open your phone and see it: the 10 day forecast for st maarten is showing a string of little gray clouds and raindrop icons.
Panic sets in. Honestly, I’ve seen people almost cancel entire trips over a bad iPhone weather app.
Don't do that. Seriously.
St. Maarten weather is a bit of a trickster. If you look at the outlook for the next week, it might look like a soggy mess, but the reality on the ground in Sint Maarten is usually a very different story.
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The Reality of the 10 day forecast for st maarten
Right now, as of January 15, 2026, the island is sitting in that sweet spot of the "cool" season. I say "cool" in quotes because we’re talking about highs of 80°F. If you’re coming from a blizzard in New York or a gray drizzle in London, this is basically perfection.
But here is the thing about those rain percentages you're seeing:
- Thursday (Today): High of 80°F, low of 79°F. There’s a 10% chance of rain during the day.
- The Weekend Pivot: Saturday, January 17, is showing a 35% chance of light rain.
- The Mid-Week Drift: Temperatures stay rock steady at 79°F to 80°F all the way through next Saturday, January 24.
See those "30%" or "40%" marks? In the Caribbean, that rarely means a washed-out day. It usually means a ten-minute "liquid sun" shower that rolls over the hills, cools everything down, and disappears before you’ve even finished your first cocktail at a beach bar.
Why the Trade Winds Matter More Than the Rain
Most people obsess over the rain icons, but the real MVP of the 10 day forecast for st maarten is the wind.
Right now, we’ve got steady easterly trade winds blowing at about 18 to 24 mph. On Saturday, they'll kick up to around 24 mph. This is what keeps the island from feeling like a giant humid sauna.
Without those winds, the 75% humidity would be brutal. With them? It feels like you’re standing in front of a giant, salt-scented fan. It’s the reason you can sit outside at a restaurant in Grand Case and not melt into your chair.
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Just a heads up for the boaters: those 24 mph gusts on Saturday might make the ferry ride over to Anguilla or St. Barts a little... bouncy. If you get seasick easily, maybe aim for a Monday or Tuesday trip when the winds settle back down to 21 mph.
What’s Happening Over the Next Week?
If we look at the day-by-day breakdown, it’s remarkably consistent.
Friday, January 16, is looking like the "clearest" day with a sunny daytime forecast and a high of 80°F. If you’re planning that big boat charter or a hike up to Pic Paradis, Friday is your golden window.
By Sunday and Monday (January 18-19), we see the humidity hover around 72% to 74%. The nights stay warm—barely dropping below 79°F. You won’t need a sweater, though a light linen shirt is always a vibe for the evening.
Local Secrets for Reading the Sky
Basically, the island has its own microclimates. It can be pouring in Philipsburg and bone-dry in Marigot.
The clouds tend to get "stuck" on the lush, green peaks of the island’s interior. If you’re at a beach on the western side (the Leeward side), you’ll often watch the rain clouds dump their water on the hills and dissipate before they ever reach your towel.
Also, check the UV index. Even on the "cloudy" days forecast for next Thursday, January 22, the UV index is still sitting at a 5. That’s enough to turn you into a lobster in 30 minutes if you aren't careful. The Caribbean sun is a different beast; it pierces through those "partly cloudy" layers like they aren't even there.
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Actionable Tips for Your St. Maarten Trip
Kinda feels like you need a degree in meteorology to plan a vacation sometimes, right? Let’s keep it simple. Based on the current 10 day forecast for st maarten, here is how you should actually play it:
- Ignore the 20% rain icons. They are almost always "passing showers" that last long enough for you to grab a refill on your drink.
- Book your water activities for Friday or Saturday. While Saturday has a higher rain chance (35%), the sun is still the dominant player, and the sea temperature is holding at a gorgeous 79°F.
- Pack for the wind, not the cold. Bring clips for your beach towel and a hat with a chin strap. Those 24 mph gusts will steal your favorite fedora in a heartbeat.
- Download a wind-specific app. If you're sailing or kiteboarding, Windfinder or PredictWind will give you much better data than the generic weather app on your home screen.
Don't let a few cloud icons on your phone ruin the hype. The "Friendly Island" is currently sitting at a steady 80°F with a breeze that makes life feel a whole lot better.
Your Next Step: If you're heading out this weekend, double-check the ferry schedules for Saturday. The 24 mph easterly winds might cause minor delays or a choppier-than-usual crossing to the surrounding islands.