Spring training in Tampa is a vibe. The sun is out, the grass at Steinbrenner Field looks like a neon green carpet, and everyone is convinced the Yankees are winning 110 games. But honestly? If you’re checking the daily box scores to see who's going to be the October hero, you're probably looking at the wrong numbers.
Last spring, people were obsessed with small-sample-size heroes. It happens every year. Some non-roster invitee hits .450 over two weeks, and suddenly the fans are demanding he start Opening Day over a veteran with a $20 million contract. It’s wild. But if we’ve learned anything from decades of Yankees spring training statistics, it’s that a 1.200 OPS in March is often about as useful as a screen door on a submarine.
The George Lombard Jr. Measuring Stick
Take George Lombard Jr., for instance. Last March, he was the youngest guy in camp. He hadn't even played above High-A. On paper, you’d expect him to get eaten alive by big-league pitching. Instead, he steps in against Zack Wheeler—yeah, that Zack Wheeler—and rips a 106.4 mph single on the very first pitch.
That single data point tells you way more than a month of bloop singles ever could. Why? Because exit velocity doesn't care about luck. If a nineteen-year-old kid can turn around a 95 mph sinker from a Cy Young runner-up, the tools are real. His final spring average doesn't matter. That one swing did.
When High Averages Mask Low Ceiling
We’ve all seen the "Grapefruit League Legend." You know the type. He hits .380 in Florida but can’t catch up to a high-octane heater once the lights get bright in the Bronx. This is where traditional stats fail us.
- Batting Average: Basically useless in March. You're facing pitchers who are "working on their changeup" even when the count is 3-1.
- ERA: Forget it. A pitcher might give up six runs because he refused to throw anything but his new "kick change" for three straight innings.
- The "Feel" Factor: Managers like Aaron Boone aren't looking at the scoreboard. They're looking at how the ball is coming off the bat.
Honestly, the real story last year was Cody Bellinger. People were skeptical about how he’d fit the "Bronx Bomber" mold after the Juan Soto era shifted. But the metrics didn't lie. He posted a .465 average with a 1.302 OPS, sure, but look deeper. He had a 93.1 mph average exit velocity. He kept his strikeout rate under 13%. When a guy pairs elite contact with that kind of thump, the "spring fluke" tag doesn't apply. He was basically screaming that he was ready.
Pitching Lab or Pitching Stats?
If you’re tracking the Yanks' arms, stop looking at the wins and losses. They don't exist. Look at the radar gun and the movement profiles.
Last season, all eyes were on the velocity jumps. We saw guys like Luke Weaver and Luis Gil using the spring to solidify shapes on their breaking balls. In 2025, the buzz was about the "kick change." It’s the trendy new grip. Clay Holmes was throwing an 89 mph version of it that was inducing whiffs over 50% of the time. If a guy is striking out the side in the 4th inning of a Tuesday game against the Pirates, it’s not about the K—it’s about the fact that the 98 mph sinker is setting up a devastating new off-speed pitch.
Does the Spring Record Actually Predict Anything?
Short answer: Kinda, but mostly no.
Historians love to point out that in 2009, the Yankees went 24-10 in the spring and won the World Series. Great. But in 2017, they went 24-9 and didn't even make the Fall Classic. Then you have 2010, where they had a losing record in March and still made the ALCS.
The correlation is messy. Statistics from groups like Prospects Live suggest that surface-level stats like ERA and OBP explain maybe 3% of the variance in regular-season success. That’s a fancy way of saying it’s mostly noise. What stays consistent?
👉 See also: Why the New Orleans Pelicans Record Is Way More Complicated Than It Looks
- Maximum Exit Velocity: If you hit it hard in Tampa, you’ll hit it hard in New York.
- Pitch Movement: A slider that breaks 14 inches in March will usually break 14 inches in July.
- Sprint Speed: Effort might vary, but raw wheels are raw wheels.
The 2025 Non-Roster Surprise
Every year, the Yankees invite about 25-30 guys who aren't on the 40-man roster. It’s a crowded house. Last year, the list was a mix of "remember him?" vets like Carlos Carrasco and high-ceiling kids like Roderick Arias.
Arias is a name you’ve gotta watch. His traditional stats in Single-A weren't eye-popping (.233 average), but he led the Florida State League in total bases and triples. When he gets into a spring game and flashes that "Best Infield Arm" (per Baseball America), the scouts aren't looking at whether he flew out to center. They're looking at the 95 mph throw across the diamond. That’s the real Yankees spring training statistics value—scouting the traits, not the outcomes.
How to Read the Box Score Like a Pro
Next time you see a spring training update, don't just look at the score. Follow these rules of thumb if you want to actually know what’s happening with the team.
- Check the pitch counts. If a starter goes 3 innings and gives up 4 runs but threw 50 pitches with 40 strikes, he had a great day.
- Look for Opponent Quality. Beating up on a "Squad B" lineup of minor leaguers isn't the same as Aaron Judge taking Corbin Burnes deep.
- Watch the defensive shifts. The Yankees have been experimenting with versatility. If you see a shortstop playing third, the "stat" isn't his batting average—it's his range factor at the new bag.
Spring training is a laboratory. The stats are just the chemical reactions. Sometimes things explode, and sometimes you find gold. But you can't judge the experiment until it's finished.
If you want to track the guys who will actually make an impact this year, stop counting home runs and start counting "Barrels." A barrel is a ball hit with the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle. If Giancarlo Stanton is barreling 20% of his balls in Tampa, the league is in trouble, regardless of whether those balls land in a fan's beer or a fielder's glove.
Actionable Insights for Following the Season:
- Focus on Statcast: Use the MLB Savant "Search" tool to filter for Yankees players during spring. Filter by "Hard Hit %" instead of Batting Average.
- Watch the Bullpen Velo: If a reliever's fastball is down 2-3 mph from his career average by mid-March, that's a red flag for injury or fatigue.
- Ignore the Standings: The Yankees' spring record is irrelevant. Focus on the health of the rotation. If the "Big Three" get through March with 15+ innings each and no "lat discomfort," that's a winning spring.