Womens NCAA Basketball Rankings: Why the Polls are Lying to You

Womens NCAA Basketball Rankings: Why the Polls are Lying to You

Basketball is weird right now. If you’re looking at the womens ncaa basketball rankings and thinking everything makes sense because UConn is back at the top, you aren't paying close enough attention.

Honestly, the AP Poll feels like a safety blanket. We see Geno Auriemma's squad sitting at a unanimous No. 1 with all 32 first-place votes, and we think, "Okay, nature is healing." But look at the carnage right below them. Four of last week's top ten teams just caught losses. It's a bloodbath.

The UConn Mirage and the SEC Gauntlet

UConn is 17-0. They’ve earned that top spot. Sarah Strong is playing like she’s from another planet, widening the gap in the midseason player rankings. But the Big East isn't exactly a nightly gauntlet.

Meanwhile, the SEC is basically a legalized street fight.

💡 You might also like: Por qué los partidos de Primera B de Chile son más entretenidos que la división de honor

The latest womens ncaa basketball rankings show nine SEC teams in the Top 25. Nine! South Carolina just jumped to No. 2, and LSU is breathing down everyone's neck at No. 6 after they absolutely dismantled Texas 70-65. You've got Vanderbilt sitting at No. 5—their highest ranking since 2002—and they’re still undefeated.

Here is the thing about Vanderbilt: they’ve only played one Quad 1 game.

Compare that to UCLA at No. 3. The Bruins have played the toughest schedule in the country. They’ve played eight Quad 1 matchups. If you’re weighing "who is actually better," do you take the undefeated team that’s played nobody, or the one-loss team that’s been through the fire?

📖 Related: South Carolina women's basketball schedule: What Most People Get Wrong

Why the NET Rankings Matter More Than the AP Top 25

If you want to actually win your bracket pool or understand the NCAA tournament seeding, stop obsessing over the AP Poll. The NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) is what the selection committee actually uses.

  • UCLA is the NET darling. Despite that one loss, they have more Quad 1 wins than anyone else.
  • Texas Tech is the sleeper. They are 19-0. They’re ranked 17th in the AP, but they haven't lost a single game. Why are they so low? Because the computers don't love their strength of schedule yet.
  • LSU's redemption. The Tigers fell out of the top 10 after losing their first two SEC games, but that win over Texas changed everything.

The rankings are a snapshot, but the momentum is shifting toward the Big Ten and the SEC. Michigan and Michigan State are both hovering in that 7-15 range, quietly putting up some of the most efficient offensive numbers in the sport.

The "New Blood" Is Making Noise

Have you looked at Illinois lately? Shauna Green has that program back in the Top 25 at No. 25. They’re the third-youngest team in Power 4 basketball. They beat a No. 7 Maryland team on New Year’s Day.

👉 See also: Scores of the NBA games tonight: Why the London Game changed everything

Then there’s TCU. 17-1. Olivia Miles is nearly averaging a triple-double (19.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 7.6 APG). They are currently No. 10 in the AP Poll, but their defense is what’s terrifying. They’re holding opponents to 52.1 points per game. That is third in the nation.

How to Use These Rankings for Your Benefit

Don't just look at the number next to the name. Look at the "Next Game" column.

Tonight is huge. No. 4 Texas is at No. 3 South Carolina. This is a rematch from Thanksgiving where Texas won by two. If South Carolina wins, they solidify that No. 2 spot. If Texas wins, the SEC hierarchy gets thrown into a blender.

What you should do next:

  1. Check the "Quad 1" records. A team like Iowa State (No. 19) has dropped three straight and fell nine spots. They are a "fade" right now until they prove they can win on the road.
  2. Watch the Ivy League. Princeton is No. 22 and they are a legitimate second-weekend tournament threat. They are consistent, they don't beat themselves, and they'll be a "sleeper" in March.
  3. Monitor the injury reports. With UConn, the focus is always on health. Azzi Fudd is rising again, and if she stays healthy alongside Sarah Strong, the gap between No. 1 and No. 2 becomes a canyon.

The womens ncaa basketball rankings will change again by Monday. That's the beauty of it. But for now, trust the NET, watch the SEC, and don't bet against Geno until someone actually proves they can stop Sarah Strong in the paint.