Ever looked at the AP Top 25, then glanced at the NCAA’s official numbers and wondered if you were having a fever dream? You aren't.
Last week, a friend texted me, absolutely losing it because her team won by fifteen points on the road and somehow dropped three spots in the women’s basketball NET rankings. "It makes no sense," she said. And honestly? On the surface, it doesn't. But that's the thing about the NET—it’s not a popularity contest, and it definitely doesn't care about your feelings or the "eye test" that sports commentators love to talk about so much.
The NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) is a math-heavy, machine-learning beast. It was brought into the women’s game for the 2020-21 season to replace the old RPI system, which was basically a dinosaur in terms of data. While the RPI just looked at who you played and whether you won, the NET wants to know how you played. It’s obsessed with efficiency.
The Secret Sauce: How the Rankings Are Actually Built
Most people think the NET is just a standings list. It’s not. It is a sorting tool. Think of it like a giant filter the Selection Committee uses to decide who gets into the Big Dance in March.
It’s built on two main pillars:
- Adjusted Net Efficiency: This is the big one. It looks at points per possession. If you’re scoring every time you have the ball and stopping the other team from doing the same, the math loves you. It also adjusts for how good your opponent is. Blowing out a team of middle-schoolers (metaphorically speaking) won't help you as much as a gritty, efficient win against a top-tier defense.
- Team Value Index (TVI): This is the results-based part. It rewards you for beating good teams, especially when you’re playing away from home.
Basically, the NET is trying to figure out how good you actually are, not just how many wins you've managed to scrape together against a weak schedule.
✨ Don't miss: Liechtenstein National Football Team: Why Their Struggles are Different Than You Think
Why 2026 is Looking So Weird
As of mid-January 2026, the rankings are doing some wild things. Take UConn. As of the January 15 update, they’re sitting at #1 with an 18-0 record. No surprise there, right? But look at Vanderbilt. They’re also undefeated at 18-0 but sitting at #9.
Why the gap? It’s all in the "Quad" system.
The NET breaks every game into four categories:
- Quadrant 1: The toughest games. Home vs. 1-25, Neutral vs. 1-35, Away vs. 1-45.
- Quadrant 2: Still tough. Home vs. 26-55, Neutral vs. 36-65, Away vs. 46-80.
- Quadrant 3: The middle ground.
- Quadrant 4: The games you’re supposed to win.
UConn is at the top because they’ve played the 7th toughest schedule in the country. They aren't just winning; they are destroying high-quality opponents. Meanwhile, teams like LSU (sitting at #5) have spent a lot of time in "Quad 4 territory" early in the season. When you play weak teams, even a 40-point blowout doesn't move the needle much because the NET expected you to do that anyway.
The "Margin of Victory" Trap
Here is a detail that trips everyone up: The NET has a cap on scoring margin. You don't get extra "credit" for winning by more than 10 points.
🔗 Read more: Cómo entender la tabla de Copa Oro y por qué los puntos no siempre cuentan la historia completa
This was a huge point of contention when the system launched. The NCAA didn't want coaches running up the score just to jump five spots in the rankings. So, if you win by 11 or you win by 40, the "Team Value Index" sees it roughly the same. However, the efficiency side of the math still tracks those possessions.
It’s a weird balance. You want to be dominant, but you don't necessarily need to embarrass people.
What Most Fans Get Wrong
The biggest misconception? That your rank is your seed.
If the season ended today and TCU was #7 in the NET, that doesn't automatically mean they’re a 2-seed. The Selection Committee uses the NET to "bucket" teams. They look at your "Team Sheet," which shows your record in each Quadrant.
If Team A is ranked #15 but has five Quad 1 wins, and Team B is ranked #10 but only has one Quad 1 win, the committee might actually seed Team A higher. The NET ranking is the start of the conversation, not the end of it.
💡 You might also like: Ohio State Football All White Uniforms: Why the Icy Look Always Sparks a Debate
Real-World Movement: The Big Ten and SEC Shuffle
Look at the current landscape. South Carolina is holding steady at #3, but their efficiency numbers are terrifyingly good. They’ve had massive blowouts—like that 105-43 win over Florida Gulf Coast—but because FGCU is a solid mid-major, that win actually carried weight.
Then you have the "Risers." Maryland just shot up from #10 to #7 after they absolutely dismantled Wisconsin. Why the jump? Because Wisconsin, while not a powerhouse, was playing well enough that the margin and the efficiency of that win triggered the algorithm.
On the flip side, Kentucky fell a few spots recently despite winning. Why? They played a bottom-tier team and won, but they didn't play "efficiently" enough according to the machine learning model. They allowed too many points per possession to a team they should have locked down.
Practical Steps for Following the Rankings
If you want to actually understand where your team stands, stop looking at the "Rank" column and start looking at the "Nitty Gritty" sheets.
- Check the SOS (Strength of Schedule): If your team is ranked lower than a team they beat, check their SOS. A tough schedule acts as a floor for your ranking.
- Watch the Road Record: The NET is obsessed with road wins. A 2-point win on the road is often worth way more than a 10-point win at home.
- Identify the "Bubble" Watch: If your team is in the 35-50 range, you are on the edge. You need Quad 1 wins. Period.
- Ignore the "Points Received": That’s for the AP Poll. In the NET, look for "Adjusted Efficiency Margin."
The women’s basketball NET rankings will keep shifting daily until the final bracket is revealed in March. It’s a living, breathing math problem that updates every single morning.
Instead of getting frustrated when your team drops after a win, look at who they played and how many possessions they "wasted." In the world of the NET, every single trip down the court matters.
Actionable Insight: Go to the official NCAA website and look at the "Team Sheets" for your favorite school. Don't look at the record; look at the Quadrant 1 record. That number, more than any other, will tell you exactly where they'll be sitting when the tournament starts.