If you’ve been watching the Dallas Wings lately, you’ve basically seen a masterclass in why the number one overall pick exists. Paige Bueckers didn’t just show up to the WNBA; she kicked the door down. Honestly, looking at the WNBA Rookie of the Year odds right now feels a bit like looking at a foregone conclusion. Sportsbooks have her sitting at a staggering -5000.
That is not a typo.
To win a measly ten dollars, you’d have to put up five hundred. It’s the kind of math that makes bettors yawn and purists nod. But while Paige is running away with the trophy, there’s actually a lot of nuance in how we got here and who else is making life difficult for the veterans.
The Paige Bueckers Era Starts in Dallas
Paige came into the league with the kind of hype we usually only see once a decade. Then Caitlin Clark happened last year, and suddenly the bar for "generational talent" was moved to the moon. People wondered if Bueckers could handle the physical toll. She had the injuries in college. The knee. The setbacks.
Well, she’s averaging 19.2 points and over 5 assists a game.
She recently hung 44 points on the Los Angeles Sparks while shooting 81% from the field. That is a historic, "video game on easy mode" type of stat line. She became the first player in WNBA history—rookie or veteran—to score 40+ while shooting that efficiently. The Dallas Wings might be struggling in the standings, but they found their cornerstone.
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The DC Duo: Citron and Iriafen
If anyone is going to steal a vote, it’s coming out of Washington. The Mystics hit the jackpot by landing both Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen. Citron is currently the only other player even mentioned in the same breath as Paige for the award, though her odds are way out at +2500.
Citron is a coach's dream. She doesn't cheat the game. She’s averaging about 14.6 points and nearly 5 rebounds, playing over 32 minutes a night. She’s steady. While Paige is the flashy superstar, Citron is the one hitting the clutch mid-range jumper and locking down the opponent's best guard.
Then there’s Kiki Iriafen.
Iriafen took home the Rookie of the Month honors back in May. She’s a double-double machine. Her face-up game is already high-level, though she’s still figuring out her three-point range. If the WNBA Rookie of the Year odds were based on pure "motor," she might be the favorite. She’s currently sitting around +3000 at most books like FanDuel and DraftKings.
The Longshots and the International Flavor
It’s easy to forget about the players across the pond, but Dominique Malonga is making it hard to look away. The 6-foot-6 center for the Seattle Storm is a literal giant on the court. She can dunk. She’s raw, sure, but her upside is terrifying.
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Then you have the Golden State Valkyries' first-ever draft pick, Justė Jocytė. Being on an expansion team is tough. You’re building the plane while flying it. Jocytė has shown flashes of that European "point-forward" style, but she hasn't had the consistent usage to really move the betting lines.
Other names floating in the +50000 abyss:
- Aneesah Morrow (Connecticut Sun)
- Hailey Van Lith (Chicago Sky)
- Saniya Rivers (Connecticut Sun)
Morrow was actually a preseason darling for some "value" bettors at +3000. She’s a rebounding vacuum. But in a league where scoring and highlights drive award narratives, it’s hard for a blue-collar forward to jump over a scoring guard like Bueckers.
Why the Market Is So Heavily Tilted
The WNBA is in a weird spot with its awards right now. Ever since 2008, the #1 pick has won Rookie of the Year 12 out of 17 times. It’s a trend. Aliyah Boston did it. Rhyne Howard did it. Caitlin Clark did it.
The betting market reflects this "top-pick" bias because the top pick usually goes to a team where they can take 15 shots a night. Paige is in that exact situation in Dallas. Even with Arike Ogunbowale taking her fair share of shots, there is plenty of room for Paige to operate.
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She’s already broken the Wings' franchise rookie records. She’s joined Caitlin Clark as the only rookies to ever hit 500 points, 150 assists, 100 rebounds, and 50 steals in a single season. When you start comparing a kid to Clark or A'ja Wilson, the odds are going to stay in the basement.
What This Means for Your Betting Slip
If you're looking to actually make money on the WNBA Rookie of the Year odds, honestly? You probably missed the boat. The value was in the preseason when Paige was around -275. At -5000, it’s essentially a high-yield savings account that pays out in September.
The only way this changes is injury. Paige has already missed a small window this season due to concussion protocol. When she was out, the odds shifted slightly, and Citron's name started popping up more. But as soon as Paige returned and dropped 35, the door slammed shut again.
For those who like to gamble on the "Player to receive at least one first-place vote" markets, Sonia Citron is your target. She’s respected by the old-school voters who love defense and fundamentals.
Actionable Strategy for WNBA Markets
- Monitor the Usage Rates: Keep an eye on the Washington Mystics. If they decide to tank or rest veterans, Citron and Iriafen's stats will skyrocket.
- Live Betting Values: During games where Paige starts slow, you can sometimes find her "To Score 20+" props at a discount.
- Wait for the All-Defensive Teams: Don't just look at Rookie of the Year. Players like Citron are actually better bets for the All-Defensive second team, where the odds are often much more favorable than the ROY race.
The race is basically over, but the growth of these players is just starting. Whether you're holding a Paige ticket or just watching for the hoops, this rookie class is arguably as deep as the one we saw in 2024.
Keep your eyes on the injury reports and the minutes-played trends. In the WNBA, opportunity is everything. If a rookie is getting 30+ minutes, their stats will eventually catch up to their talent.