Wisconsin’s political climate is always a bit... intense. It's the kind of place where a "nonpartisan" judicial race feels more like a heavyweight title fight. If you’ve been following the state's legal battles over the last few years, you know the stakes for the upcoming April 7, 2026, election couldn't be much higher.
Honestly, the Wisconsin supreme court race prediction for 2026 isn't just about one seat. It’s about whether the liberal wing, which currently holds a 4-3 majority, can stretch that lead to a dominant 5-2.
The seat in question belongs to Justice Rebecca Bradley. She’s a staunch conservative who was originally appointed by former Governor Scott Walker back in 2015. After months of speculation, Bradley officially announced she wouldn't seek another 10-year term. Her exit turns this into an "open seat" race, which in Wisconsin politics is basically like throwing a match into a hayloft.
The Players: Taylor vs. Lazar
Since only two candidates filed by the January deadline, we don't have to worry about a February primary. It’s a straight shot to April between two polar opposites from the Wisconsin Court of Appeals.
Chris Taylor is the liberal favorite. She’s got a long history in Madison, having served a decade in the State Assembly before becoming a judge. She also worked as a lawyer for Planned Parenthood of Wisconsin. That background tells you exactly why the Democratic base is already lining up behind her.
On the other side, we have Maria Lazar. She’s the conservative choice, hailing from the District II Court of Appeals. Before her time on the bench, she was a prosecutor in the state Department of Justice under Brad Schimel. If Taylor is the Madison pick, Lazar is very much the Waukesha-area answer to it.
The Money Gap is Massive
I’m not kidding when I say the fundraising numbers are eye-popping. As of mid-January 2026, the financial reports are in, and it's a bit of a lopsided affair.
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Chris Taylor reported raising over $2.6 million in 2025 alone. To put that in perspective, that’s about ten times what Maria Lazar has pulled in so far. Lazar, who jumped into the race a bit later in October, reported around $200,000.
Now, Lazar’s team says they aren't worried. They think the "outside" money will even things out. And they're probably right. In the 2025 race where Susan Crawford beat Brad Schimel, we saw tens of millions of dollars flow in from national groups and billionaires like Elon Musk.
Predicting the Vibe: Why Taylor has the Momentum
If you look at recent history, liberals in Wisconsin are on a winning streak.
- 2020: Jill Karofsky won by 10.5%.
- 2023: Janet Protasiewicz won by 11%.
- 2025: Susan Crawford won by about 10%.
See the pattern? In high-turnout spring elections, the liberal-backed candidates have consistently cleared a 10-point margin. This is why many analysts making a Wisconsin supreme court race prediction are leaning toward Taylor. She has a massive head start on cash, a built-in donor network from her time in the legislature, and the wind of three consecutive victories at her back.
But—and this is a big but—Wisconsin is still a purple state.
Maria Lazar is positioning herself as the "rule of law" candidate, a classic conservative framing. She’s betting that voters are getting tired of what she calls "activist" rulings on things like abortion and redistricting.
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What’s Actually on the Line?
Even though the court is already 4-3 liberal, this election matters for the long game. If Taylor wins, the liberal majority becomes 5-2. That means even if a liberal justice like Rebecca Dallet or Jill Karofsky were to lose a future race, the majority would still be safe.
It’s about insulation.
The court is currently staring down massive cases involving:
- The 1849 abortion law (which the court effectively neutralized, but legal skirmishes continue).
- Public sector union rights (the famous Act 10).
- Future election rules for the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential race.
The "Incumbency" Factor (Or Lack Thereof)
Usually, incumbents have a huge advantage in these races. Since 1900, Wisconsin Supreme Court incumbents have rarely lost. But because Rebecca Bradley is stepping down, we have our third consecutive open-seat race. That is historic. It hasn't happened three times in a row in the state’s history.
Without an incumbent to defend a record, the race becomes a pure ideological proxy war.
The Numbers You Should Know
To understand the Wisconsin supreme court race prediction for 2026, you have to look at the voting blocs. In 2025, Susan Crawford pulled over 1.3 million votes. Her opponent, Brad Schimel, got roughly 1.06 million.
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Taylor needs to replicate that turnout in the "WOW" counties (Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington) while dominating in Dane and Milwaukee. Lazar’s path to victory involves narrowing those margins in Madison and hoping the conservative base, which felt a bit demoralized after the 2025 loss, actually shows up this time.
Is There a Path for Lazar?
Honestly, it’s a steep climb. To win, Lazar has to do two things:
- Overcome a 10-to-1 fundraising disadvantage.
- Convince moderate "Fox Valley" voters that the court has swung too far to the left.
If the national political mood sours on Democrats by April, that could help her. But supreme court races in Wisconsin have lately become insulated from national trends; they've become their own localized, high-stakes battlegrounds.
Actionable Next Steps for Voters
If you're following this race, don't just wait for the TV ads to tell you what to think. Those ads are mostly funded by out-of-state groups anyway.
- Check your registration: Even if you voted in the last presidential election, make sure your status is active at the MyVote Wisconsin website.
- Look at the rulings: Don't just listen to the "liberal" or "conservative" labels. Read the summaries of the District II and District IV Court of Appeals decisions written by Lazar and Taylor. It's the best way to see how they actually think.
- Mark the calendar: April 7, 2026. There is no primary, so this is the only day that counts.
- Request an absentee ballot: If you can't make it to the polls on a Tuesday in April, Wisconsin makes it pretty easy to vote by mail. Get that request in by March to be safe.
The data suggests Taylor is the frontrunner based on cash and recent voting trends, but in a state where a few thousand votes can flip a result, nothing is ever truly settled until the last precinct in Milwaukee or Waukesha reports.