Politics in Wisconsin is basically a high-stakes chess match played out on a map of 72 counties. Honestly, if you want to understand how Governor Tony Evers pulled off a second term in 2022, you've got to look past the top-line numbers and get into the weeds of the county-level data. Most people think Wisconsin is just a "purple state" where everyone is a moderate. That’s not really it. It's more like a collection of deep blue urban centers and bright red rural stretches that are constantly tugging at each other for control.
In the 2022 matchup against Republican Tim Michels, Evers didn't just win; he actually expanded his margin from 2018. He took 51.2% of the vote compared to Michels' 47.8%. That might not sound like a landslide, but in Wisconsin, a 3.4% margin is practically a blowout. But how did he do it? The secret sauce is in the Wisconsin governor election results by county, where we saw some weird shifts that defied the national "red wave" narrative that everyone was expecting that year.
The Dane County Powerhouse
Let's talk about Dane County for a second. If you’re a Democrat in Wisconsin, Dane is your North Star. Madison and its suburbs didn't just show up for Evers; they exploded. Evers carried Dane with a staggering 78.8% of the vote. To put that in perspective, he won the county by about 164,000 votes.
When you realize his statewide winning margin was only about 90,000 votes, you see the math. Dane County alone basically provided the entire cushion for his victory. It’s a massive turnout machine. In 2018, he won here by 51 points. In 2022, he pushed that to nearly 58 points. That kind of growth in a stronghold is what keeps GOP strategists awake at night.
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What Happened in the WOW Counties?
You can't discuss Wisconsin elections without mentioning the WOW counties: Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington. These are the historic bastions of Republican power. They wrap around Milwaukee like a red crescent.
Michels won all three, obviously. You don't lose Washington County as a Republican unless the world is ending. However, the margins are leaking. Look at Ozaukee. Michels won it by 13 points, but back in the Scott Walker days, Republicans were winning there by 30 or 40 points. Evers managed to peel off just enough suburban voters—mostly over concerns about reproductive rights and "boring" stability—to make the Republican math nearly impossible.
- Waukesha: Michels won 60% to 39%.
- Ozaukee: Michels won 56% to 43%.
- Washington: Michels won 68% to 31%.
Even though Michels "won" these areas, the fact that Evers was hitting 43% in Ozaukee is a massive red flag for the GOP. It shows that the "Don’t Tread on Me" rural base and the "Lower My Taxes" suburban base are starting to split.
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The Rural Red Wall and the Drift
Michels did exactly what he was supposed to do in the rural North and West. He flipped counties like Crawford, Grant, and Richland—places Evers had actually won in 2018. The rural-urban divide is widening into a canyon. Michels leaned hard into his "blue-collar contractor" image, and it resonated in places like the 3rd Congressional District.
But here is the weird part: Door County. It’s the "thumb" of Wisconsin. It’s usually a bellwether. In 2018, it went for Scott Walker. In 2022? It flipped to Evers. Why? Probably the same reason the suburbs shifted—a mix of high-turnout retirees and moderate voters who weren't sold on the more "Trumpian" style Michels brought to the table.
The Milwaukee Factor
Milwaukee is a bit of a headache for Democrats lately. While Evers won Milwaukee County with 71%, the actual number of raw votes was down. There was a drop of about 47,000 votes in the U.S. Senate race compared to 2018, and the governor's race saw similar trends.
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If Milwaukee’s turnout continues to sag, the "Dane County Strategy" becomes a lot riskier. Evers managed to survive this because he performed so well with independents. According to exit polls, he won independents by about 6 to 7 points. That’s the ballgame right there. You can lose some rural ground if you hold the suburbs and dominate the capital.
Why the Results Matter for 2026 and Beyond
The Wisconsin governor election results by county tell us that the state isn't just a 50/50 split anymore; it's a game of "who can turn out their base more intensely." We're seeing a weird stabilization. Incumbents are hard to beat here. Evers won, and Republican Senator Ron Johnson won his reelection on the same night.
People are "ticket-splitting" less than they used to, but it still happens. There were thousands of voters who presumably voted for Republican Ron Johnson and then turned around and voted for Democrat Tony Evers. That’s the "Wisconsin Moderate" that everyone is hunting for.
Actionable Insights for Following WI Elections:
If you want to track the next cycle like a pro, don't just watch the state total. Watch these three things:
- The Ozaukee Margin: If the Republican candidate isn't winning Ozaukee by at least 15–20 points, they are likely going to lose statewide.
- Dane County Raw Totals: Watch if Madison's turnout exceeds 80%. If it does, the GOP needs a miracle in the north.
- The "Drift" in the 3rd District: Keep an eye on the western "Coulee Region." If Democrats keep losing ground in places like La Crosse and Eau Claire, their path to 50% gets incredibly narrow.
The 2022 results proved that "boring" can be a political superpower in a state exhausted by constant legal and political battles. Evers’ strategy of focusing on the "bread and butter" while letting his opponent lean into more controversial cultural issues clearly paid off in the suburban margins. To stay updated on the upcoming 2026 cycle, keep an eye on the official Wisconsin Elections Commission site for certified precinct-level data.