Wisconsin has always been a bit of a heartbreaker for pollsters. Honestly, if you were watching the wisconsin 2024 election results trickle in on that Tuesday night in November, you probably saw exactly why. It was close. Like, "hold your breath" close. Donald Trump ended up taking the state's 10 electoral votes by a razor-thin margin of about 0.86%, or roughly 29,371 votes.
That’s basically the capacity of a medium-sized college football stadium deciding the fate of the entire country.
People kept talking about the "Blue Wall," but that wall had a few loose bricks this time around. While Kamala Harris managed to keep the margins high in places like Dane County—which is basically the Democratic engine of the state—it wasn't enough to offset the massive turnout in rural areas and the shift in the suburbs. Trump grabbed 49.6% of the vote, while Harris sat at 48.7%. It was the only state in the whole country decided by less than a percentage point.
Kinda wild, right?
What Really Happened with the Wisconsin 2024 Election Results?
If you want to understand the wisconsin 2024 election results, you have to look at the "WOW" counties: Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington. Traditionally, these are the Republican strongholds that ring Milwaukee. For years, Democrats have been trying to chip away at them. Interestingly, Harris actually did slightly better in these suburban areas than Joe Biden did in 2020. She narrowed the gap.
But there was a trade-off.
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Trump saw a surge in turnout from what experts call "low-propensity" voters. These are folks who don't always show up, but they did this year. They were spread out across the rural north and the manufacturing towns. In places like Kenosha and Racine, the margins shifted just enough to keep the state red.
The Tammy Baldwin Factor
Here is where things get really weird. While Trump won the state for the presidency, Democrat Tammy Baldwin actually kept her Senate seat. She defeated Republican Eric Hovde by about 0.85%—almost the exact same margin Trump won by, just in the other direction.
How does that happen?
It's called split-ticket voting. Basically, about 55,000 people walked into a voting booth, picked Donald Trump for President, and then turned around and picked Tammy Baldwin for Senate. Maybe they liked Baldwin's focus on "Buy American" policies, or maybe they just weren't sold on Hovde, who faced criticism for his ties to California banking.
The New Maps and the State House
While the top of the ticket was a nail-biter, the biggest long-term shift might actually be in the state legislature. For the first time in over a decade, Wisconsin played on "fair maps." After years of legal battles over gerrymandering, the new district lines led to a massive shift in Madison.
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- Democrats flipped 14 seats in the State Assembly and Senate.
- The Republican supermajority is officially dead.
- Republicans still hold the majority (54-45 in the Assembly), but they can't just override Governor Tony Evers’ vetoes whenever they want anymore.
It’s a different world in the state capitol now. The GOP still has the gavel, but they have to actually negotiate. This move toward the center (or at least toward competition) is probably the most significant outcome for the daily lives of Wisconsinites.
Why the Turnout Was So High
Wisconsin had some of the highest turnout in the country. We're talking 76.6% of eligible voters. That's massive. When you look at the wisconsin 2024 election results, you see that nearly 3.4 million people cast a ballot.
People were fired up about the economy.
They were fired up about abortion rights.
Mostly, they were just fired up.
Madison (Dane County) saw nearly 75% support for Harris, which is staggering. But Trump countered that by winning 63 out of 72 counties. It was a battle of the "islands" (Madison and Milwaukee) versus the "sea" (everywhere else). The sea won by a few inches this time.
Surprising Details from the Numbers
One thing people get wrong is thinking Milwaukee was the problem for Democrats. Actually, turnout in Milwaukee County stayed relatively steady, but the "swing" was in the smaller industrial cities. Trump's message on inflation and the cost of living really hit home in places where the price of eggs matters more than the latest political drama in D.C.
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Also, the "Uninstructed" vote in the primary earlier that year had people worried. About 48,000 people voted uninstructed to protest the administration's foreign policy. While most of those voters likely came home to the Democratic party in November, in a race decided by 29,000 votes, every single person who stayed home or voted third-party (like for Jill Stein or Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who stayed on the ballot despite dropping out) made a huge difference.
What’s Next for Wisconsin Voters?
The 2024 cycle is over, but the machinery is already moving for 2026. Because the legislative maps are now competitive, you’re going to see a lot more money and attention flowing into local races that used to be "safe."
If you want to keep track of how these results actually change your life, watch the state budget. With a slimmer Republican majority, expect more fights over school funding and tax cuts. Also, keep an eye on the state Supreme Court; that’s where the real power often sits in Wisconsin.
Next Steps for You:
- Check your registration status: Even if you just voted, Wisconsin cleans its rolls periodically. Stay on top of it at MyVote WI.
- Follow your new local rep: Many districts have brand new faces thanks to the 14-seat flip. Find out who represents you now, as their office is much more likely to be responsive in a competitive district.
- Watch the 2026 map: The State Senate is still staggered. The other half of the districts will be up in two years, and that's when the majority could actually flip.