Honestly, if you’ve lived in the Garden State long enough, you know the drill. You see a few flakes, everybody runs for the milk and bread, and then half the time we end up with nothing but a slushy mess that ruins your shoes. But this time feels a bit different. We aren't just looking at a single "hit and run" system. We’re basically dealing with a "two-fer" situation that’s turning the state into a giant ice box right before our eyes.
The winter storm expected to hit New Jersey this weekend is already making its presence felt, and if you're north of I-78, you’ve probably already seen the first act of this drama.
The Sunday Shift: It’s Not Just "Conversation Snow" Anymore
Earlier in the week, forecasters like Dan Zarrow were calling this "conversational snow." You know, the kind you talk about over coffee but don't actually have to shovel. Well, the atmosphere had other plans. That coastal low decided to nudge a little closer to the shore, and suddenly those "dusting" predictions jumped up to a solid 2 to 5 inches for a huge chunk of the state.
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If you're in the I-95 or NJ Turnpike corridor, you’re in the sweet spot. We’re talking about a messy transition from rain to snow that’s going to make the Sunday evening commute—if you’re brave enough to be out—kinda miserable.
The timing is the real kicker here.
Most of the morning started out as a gross, cold rain for South Jersey and the coast because temperatures were hanging out in the mid-30s. But as that low-pressure system pivots this afternoon, "dynamic cooling" kicks in. Basically, the storm creates its own cold air, dragging the freezing line toward the ocean. Between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m. today, that rain is going to flip to snow fast.
Where the Snow is Actually Hitting
It’s a tale of three states within one.
- North Jersey (Sussex, Morris, Warren): You guys already got a head start on Saturday. You’re looking at another 1 to 3 inches on top of what’s already there. It’s pretty much just a winter wonderland (or a headache) at this point.
- The "Core" (Trenton to Newark): This is where the surprise is. Since the storm tracked further west, this corridor is looking at the heaviest bands this afternoon. Some spots could see an inch an hour during the peak.
- The Shore and South Jersey: You’re starting late. Because you had to wait for the rain to turn over, your totals will be lower—maybe a coating to 2 inches—but it’s going to be that heavy, wet "heart attack" snow that’s a beast to move.
The Big Chill: What Happens When the Flakes Stop
The snow is expected to taper off by 9 or 10 p.m. tonight. You might think that's the end of it, but honestly, the worst part is actually what's coming Monday and Tuesday.
As soon as that low clears out, the door to the Arctic opens wide. We are talking about a deep trough settling over the Eastern U.S. that’s going to send temperatures plummeting into the teens and single digits.
Monday night and Tuesday night will be the coldest stretch we've seen in a while. Even if you only got an inch of snow, anything that melted today is going to turn into a sheet of black ice by tomorrow morning. The National Weather Service in Mount Holly is already pointing out that wind chills will be brutal—potentially below zero in the Poconos and single digits for the rest of us.
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Why This Storm Was Such a "Beast" to Forecast
Weather models like the GFS and European were duking it out all week. One run would show the storm way out at sea; the next would have it burying us. This is because coastal lows are notoriously finicky. If the "benchmark" (that specific coordinate off the coast) is missed by even fifty miles, it’s the difference between a rainy day and a state of emergency.
For this specific winter storm expected to hit New Jersey this weekend, the "tuck" was the secret. The storm tucked in closer to the coast than the early models suggested, which pulled that moisture further inland.
Practical Next Steps for New Jerseyans
Look, the storm is already here, but the "prime time" is this afternoon and evening.
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- Clear your cars before sunset. Once the sun goes down and that Arctic air hits, that slush is going to turn into concrete. If you don't clear it now, you'll be using a blowtorch to get it off tomorrow morning.
- Salt the "melt." If you have puddles on your walkway from the morning rain, get some ice melt down now. The flash freeze tonight is no joke.
- Check on your pipes. With temperatures dropping to 11°F or 13°F in some areas Tuesday night, this is the first real "pipe-bursting" weather of 2026. Keep those cabinet doors open and maybe let a faucet drip if your house is older.
- Watch the wind. We’re expecting gusts up to 25 or 30 knots as the system pulls away. Combined with the weight of wet snow, keep an eye on any sketchy tree limbs near your power lines.
The winter storm expected to hit New Jersey this weekend might not be a "historic" blizzard, but it’s a messy, complicated reminder that January in Jersey always has a few tricks up its sleeve. Stay warm and stay off the roads once that sun goes down.