Honestly, if you've been scrolling through social media lately, you’ve probably seen the headlines. Some say the sky is falling and your red-white-and-blue card is about to be shredded. Others claim everything is perfect and nothing will ever change. The truth? It’s somewhere in the messy middle.
Will Trump remove Medicare?
Basically, no. The short answer is that President Trump has repeatedly pledged to "protect" the program. In fact, on July 4, 2025, he signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which his administration frames as a shield for senior benefits. But "protecting" a program doesn't mean leaving it exactly how you found it. While the core of Medicare remains, the way it functions is undergoing some of the biggest shifts we've seen in decades.
The Reality of Medicare Under the Current Administration
If you’re looking for a total repeal of Medicare, you won't find it in any official policy. Trump's 2026 platform isn't about ending the program; it’s about shifting the gears. Think of it less like a demolition and more like a massive home renovation where the contractor keeps the foundation but changes every single room.
The administration has leaned heavily into Medicare Advantage. This isn't exactly a secret. Republicans have long preferred private-sector competition over the traditional government-run model. By the start of 2026, we’re seeing a landscape where Medicare Advantage is essentially becoming the "default" for many new retirees.
The trade-off is real. You might get lower premiums—actually, 2026 projections show Medicare Advantage premiums dropping to an average of $14.00—but those "extra perks" like grocery cards or free gym memberships are being trimmed back. The government is tightening the belt on what private insurers can offer as "supplemental benefits."
What’s happening with your monthly costs?
You've probably noticed your mail is full of those "important notice" letters. Here is the breakdown of what 2026 actually looks like for your wallet:
- Part B Premiums: These are jumping. We’re looking at a rise from $185 in 2025 to about **$206.50** in 2026. That’s an 11.6% hike that hits almost everyone.
- The Part D Deductible: Prepare to pay a bit more at the pharmacy counter initially. The maximum deductible is hitting $615.
- Drug Price Caps: This is the part that surprises people. Despite the rhetoric about repealing the Inflation Reduction Act, the $2,000 (now adjusted to **$2,100** for inflation) out-of-pocket cap for prescription drugs is still standing.
It’s a bit of a "give and take" scenario. You pay more for the monthly "right to have insurance" (Part B), but you’re protected from catastrophic drug costs.
The "One Big Beautiful Bill" and Medicare Cuts
There’s been a lot of talk about the $490 billion in "cuts" projected between 2027 and 2034. It sounds terrifying. Like, "the money is gone" kind of terrifying. But in D.C. speak, a "cut" often just means "reducing the rate of future growth."
The administration argues these savings come from rooting out waste, fraud, and abuse. They’ve even floated using AI to scan for improper payments. Skeptics, including experts at the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF), worry that these "efficiencies" will eventually lead to stricter "prior authorization" rules.
Basically, it might get harder to get your doctor’s recommended surgery approved on the first try. We're already seeing Original Medicare test out these prior-approval requirements for certain services in 2026, which used to be something only private plans did.
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The Project 2025 Shadow
You can't talk about whether Trump will remove Medicare without mentioning Project 2025. During the campaign, it was the ultimate boogeyman. The document, written by the Heritage Foundation, suggested making Medicare Advantage the absolute default and removing drug price controls.
Trump distanced himself from it, calling some ideas "ridiculous." However, now that we’re in 2026, some of those "ridiculous" ideas are appearing in regulatory tweaks. For instance, the administration has delayed rules that would have made it easier for low-income seniors to access "Medicare Savings Programs" until 2034. It’s not a "removal," but it’s definitely a tightening of the belt.
Obesity Drugs: The $35 Billion Gamble
One of the most interesting pivots in 2026 has been the "Great Obesity Drug Deal." Initially, the administration balked at the cost of covering GLP-1 drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound for weight loss. The price tag was a staggering $35 billion over a decade.
But, in a classic Trump-style move, a deal was struck. Medicare now covers these drugs for about 10% of the most "at-risk" obese beneficiaries. The catch? The administration is using "Most-Favored-Nation" pricing logic to try and force drugmakers to lower the cost to Medicare to match what other countries pay. It’s an aggressive, market-driven approach that basically says: "We'll cover it, but only if the price is right."
Who Actually Loses Coverage?
When people ask "will Trump remove Medicare," they are often really asking "will I lose my insurance?"
For the vast majority of U.S. citizens over 65, the answer is no. However, the OBBBA did tighten the screws on specific groups.
- Immigrant Eligibility: The new law eliminates Medicare eligibility for certain non-citizens, including some refugees and those with Temporary Protected Status, who haven't met strict 5-year residency and work requirements.
- Dual-Eligibles: People who have both Medicare and Medicaid are seeing "integrated" changes. While it's meant to simplify things with one ID card, some people are finding it harder to keep their specific out-of-state specialists.
Actionable Steps for 2026
The dust is still settling on these changes, and honestly, the best thing you can do is stop listening to the 30-second political ads and look at your specific plan.
Check your "Evidence of Coverage" (EOC) notice. Seriously. Don't toss it in the recycling. 2026 is a year of "technical changes." Your doctor might have been in-network in December, but with the new "Value-Based Care" models being pushed, networks are shifting faster than usual.
Review your Part D plan. Even if you like your current drug coverage, the new $2,100 cap and the "Most-Favored-Price" negotiations mean different drugs are being prioritized. Your current medication might be cheaper on a different plan this year.
Look into the "GLOBE Model" for cancer care. If you or a loved one are dealing with a serious diagnosis, the administration has launched new "Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation" (CMMI) models that change how Part B drugs (the ones you get at the doctor's office) are paid for.
Medicare isn't going away, but it is becoming more of a "market" and less of a "utility." Staying informed is the only way to make sure you don't end up paying for the transition out of your own pocket.