Honestly, looking out the window today, Jan 15, 2026, doesn't exactly scream "tornado weather" for most of us. It’s middle-of-winter cold. We’ve got arctic air plunging into the Midwest, and a massive clipper system dropping down from Canada. But if you’re asking will there be a tornado warning today, the answer is almost entirely a "no"—unless you happen to be sitting at the very tip of the Florida peninsula or out on a boat in the Keys.
Even there, the risk is incredibly low.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman has the entire Lower 48 basically "in the clear" for organized severe weather today. We’re seeing a big, amplified trough over the eastern U.S., which is a fancy way of saying a giant dip in the jet stream that’s ushering in frigid air. That cold air is the natural enemy of tornadoes. You need heat, moisture, and instability to get a funnel cloud, and right now, most of the country is just trying to stay warm.
Why Today’s Radar Looks Different
If you’ve been checking your weather apps and seeing bright colors, don't panic. Most of that isn't severe thunderstorms. Up in the Great Lakes, especially around Detroit and parts of Michigan, it’s all about the snow. We just had a pretty significant dump of 3 to 6 inches of dry, powdery snow in the Detroit Metro area. Instead of tornado sirens, people are dealing with flight cancellations—296 delays at Detroit Metro airport alone.
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In the northern Plains and the Midwest, the "warnings" you might see are actually for snow squalls. The National Weather Service in Duluth issued some of these earlier for Cook and Lake counties. A snow squall warning is basically the winter version of a tornado warning in terms of urgency—it means visibility is about to drop to near zero in seconds. But it won’t blow your house down.
The Only Spot to Watch: Southern Florida
If there’s any place that could see a stray spark, it’s the Florida Keys and maybe the far southern Everglades. There’s a cold front moving through there right now.
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- The Setup: We’ve got some "marginal instability."
- The Result: Isolated thunderstorms are possible.
- The Reality: While there’s enough wind shear to make things interesting, there’s just not enough "fuel" (CAPE) in the atmosphere to get a tornado going.
The NWS Key West did issue some Special Marine Warnings earlier today for strong thunderstorms over the water, but those are for wind and choppy seas, not land-based tornadoes.
What Most People Get Wrong About Winter Tornadoes
Kinda weirdly, January isn't always safe. We actually had a bit of a scare about a week ago across Mississippi and Louisiana. But today, the "atmospheric setup" is just too stable. To get a tornado warning today, you’d need a surge of warm, muggy air from the Gulf of Mexico to fight against this arctic blast. Instead, that arctic air has pushed all the way down into central Florida.
When the cold air wins this decisively, the atmosphere stays "capped" or just plain flat. No rising air means no big storms.
Current Hazards (That Aren't Tornadoes)
Since we’re clear on the tornado front, here is what’s actually happening that might mess up your day:
- Flash Freezes: In places like St. Louis, they’ve activated "Code Blue" emergency shelters because temps are hitting 20°F.
- High Winds: The northern and central High Plains are seeing gusts up to 45 mph. That can feel like a storm, but it's just pressure changes.
- Black Ice: Especially in Kentucky and southern Indiana, light snow is sticking to cold pavement, making the commute a mess.
Keeping an Eye on the Horizon
So, no tornado warning today for the vast majority of us. But weather changes fast. Forecasters are already looking at late next week—around Jan 23-25—where some models suggest a return of "moist return flow" from the Gulf. That’s the stuff we actually have to worry about. For now, put the tornado plan on the shelf and find a heavy coat.
If you’re in a spot where the wind is howling, it’s likely just the "clipper" system moving through. These systems are fast and dry. They bring the cold and the wind, but they rarely bring the rotation needed for a warning.
Your Action Plan for Today:
- Check the local temp: If it’s below 50°F, your tornado risk is statistically near zero.
- Watch for Snow Squalls: If you’re in the Midwest or Northeast, these are the real "sudden" threats today.
- Monitor the SPC: If you’re in South Florida, keep a casual eye on the radar until the front passes this afternoon, then you’re in the clear.
Stay warm and don't sweat the sirens today. The atmosphere is currently behaving itself.