Will the Government Shutdown Affect Air Travel? What to Expect at the Airport

You've probably seen the headlines or heard the grumbling in the breakroom. Another potential funding gap is looming on the horizon for January 30, 2026. If you have a flight booked, you're likely asking: will the government shutdown affect air travel in a way that actually ruins my trip?

Honestly, it’s a mess.

We just got out of a brutal 43-day shutdown that lasted from October 1 to November 12, 2025. That one wasn't just "politics as usual." It cost the travel economy about $6.1 billion. It forced the FAA to slash flight volumes by 10% at 40 major airports. If you're flying soon, you need the ground truth, not just the sanitized version from a press release.

The First 72 Hours: The "Quiet before the Storm"

When the clock strikes midnight and the government technically "shuts down," the world doesn't stop. Planes don't just fall out of the sky.

Air traffic controllers, TSA agents, and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officers are considered "essential." This means they are required to show up to work. The catch? They aren't getting paid. They’ll eventually get back pay, but try telling that to a landlord or a utility company.

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During the first few days, you might not notice anything. Lines look normal. The pilot still sounds calm over the intercom. But behind the scenes, the "brittleness" starts. Training for new controllers stops immediately. This is a huge deal because the FAA is already short by about 3,000 controllers. Every day the training academy in Oklahoma City is closed, the future of flight safety gets a little more precarious.

Why 2026 Could Be Different (and Difficult)

You might remember the 2018-2019 shutdown. It lasted 35 days and ended only when air traffic control delays at LaGuardia and Newark got so bad that the system nearly buckled.

The 2025 shutdown was even longer.

By day 30 of that recent October-to-November stretch, the "sick-outs" started. When workers don't have gas money to get to work or need to pick up a side gig at a warehouse just to buy groceries, they call out. At Hollywood Burbank Airport last October, the tower was unstaffed for six hours. Pilots had to talk to each other on the radio to avoid hitting each other on the taxiways. It's wild, but that's what happens when the people keeping us safe are treated like volunteers.

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What actually happens at the airport:

• TSA Lines: As officers call in sick, checkpoints close. A 20-minute wait can balloon into three hours. We saw this in Houston and Atlanta during the last go-round.
• Flight Cancellations: The FAA doesn't take risks. If there aren't enough controllers to manage a sector of airspace, they "gate" the traffic. They'll literally hold your plane on the ground at the departure city.
• International Travel: Oddly enough, international flights are sometimes safer. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy noted during the 2025 crisis that international agreements often protect these routes from domestic volume cuts.

The "10% Rule" and Your Vacation

During the height of the 2025 shutdown, the FAA mandated a 4%—and eventually 10%—reduction in flights at 40 high-traffic airports. Basically, they told airlines, "You have too many flights for our exhausted, unpaid staff to handle. Cancel some."

Airlines for America (A4A) reported that over 4,000 flights were canceled due to staffing triggers in just a 10-day period in early November 2025. If the January 30 deadline isn't met and we slide back into a shutdown, these "rolling delays" are almost guaranteed to return.

Will the Government Shutdown Affect Air Travel for YOU?

It depends on where you're going. If you’re flying between major hubs like O'Hare, Hartsfield-Jackson, or JFK, you’re in the splash zone. If you’re flying a puddle-jumper between two small regional airports, you might be totally fine.

Safety is the big elephant in the room. Experts like Jeffrey Price, a professor of aviation, have pointed out that while the system is designed to be "fail-safe," the added stress on controllers—some working 60-hour weeks without a paycheck—creates "secondary impacts." Think late aircraft arrivals, crew timing out because they've been on duty too long, and equipment that doesn't get repaired because the technicians are furloughed.

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Actionable Steps for Travelers

If a shutdown begins, don't panic, but do change your strategy.

1. Monitor "The Big Three": Check FlightAware for general delay trends, the FAA’s National Airspace System (NAS) status page for ground stops, and your airline’s app.
2. The "First Flight" Rule: Book the earliest flight of the day. Delays during a shutdown are cumulative. By 4:00 PM, the system is usually a disaster, but the 6:00 AM flight has a much higher chance of departing on time.
3. Carry-On Only: If your flight gets canceled and you need to pivot to a different airline or a bus, you do not want your bags trapped in the bowels of an airport.
4. Download the Mobile Passport Control (MPC) App: If you're coming back from abroad, this can save you hours if CBP staffing is thin.
5. Check Your Credit Card Benefits: Many premium travel cards (like Chase Sapphire or Amex Platinum) have trip delay insurance. If the FAA delays your flight by 6+ hours, the card might cover your hotel and food.

We aren't in the clear yet. While the "Aviation Funding Solvency Act" (H.R. 6086) has been moving through Congress to try and keep controllers paid regardless of a shutdown, it hasn't fully solved the problem. Until a full-year appropriations bill is signed for 2026, the risk remains.

Keep your eyes on the January 30 deadline. If no deal is reached, expect the "brittleness" to return to the skies by mid-February.

Your Next Steps:

• Verify your contact information with your airline today so you receive real-time SMS alerts for cancellations.
• Research alternative airports within driving distance of your destination in case your primary hub faces significant flight reductions.