Texas. The "sleeping giant." For about a decade now, political analysts have been obsessed with the idea of a blue Texas. They look at the booming tech hubs in Austin, the massive growth in Dallas suburbs, and the demographic shifts, and they swear it’s just around the corner. But honestly, if you were looking at the 2024 results for a sign of that "blue wave," you probably walked away pretty confused.
Basically, the 2024 election didn't just stall the Democratic momentum—it kind of threw it into reverse.
While the national conversation often paints Texas as a state on the verge of a flip, the actual data from 2024 tells a much more complicated, and frankly, more "red" story than anyone expected. Donald Trump didn't just win; he won big. He took the state by over 1.5 million votes, which is the largest margin of victory for a Republican in Texas in two decades. So, what happened to the dream of a blue Texas?
The 2024 Reality Check
If you’ve been following the "Will Texas Turn Blue 2024" saga, the final numbers feel like a cold bucket of water. Donald Trump pulled in 56.1% of the vote compared to Kamala Harris's 42.5%. To put that in perspective, Joe Biden lost Texas by about 5.6 points in 2020. Harris lost it by nearly 14.
That is not the direction Democrats were hoping for.
It wasn’t just the top of the ticket, either. The Senate race was supposed to be the "real" contest. Everyone was watching Colin Allred, the former NFL player turned Congressman, to see if he could finally do what Beto O'Rourke couldn't: unseat Ted Cruz. Allred ran a disciplined, well-funded campaign. He raised over $80 million. He kept his distance from the national party when he needed to. He focused heavily on reproductive rights.
But Ted Cruz won by nearly 9 points.
👉 See also: What Category Was Harvey? The Surprising Truth Behind the Number
In 2018, Cruz only won by 2.6%. The "swing" people expected simply evaporated. Cruz didn't just survive; he improved his margin significantly, even flipping 13 counties that had previously leaned away from him.
The South Texas Shockwave
Probably the biggest "holy cow" moment of the 2024 cycle was what happened in the Rio Grande Valley. For over a century, South Texas was a Democratic stronghold. We're talking about places where Republicans barely bothered to run candidates because the math was so lopsided.
That’s gone.
Look at Starr County. It’s about 97% Hispanic. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won it by 60 points. In 2024? Donald Trump won it. It was the first time a Republican won Starr County since Benjamin Harrison in 1892. That isn't just a "shift"—it’s a political earthquake.
Across the border regions, the swing was massive. Maverick County swung 28% to the right. Webb County (Laredo) and Cameron County (Brownsville) saw similar rightward lurches.
Why? It turns out that assuming "demographics are destiny" was a bit of a trap. Many voters in these areas cited the economy and border security as their primary drivers. The "blue" brand in these traditionally conservative, Catholic, and working-class communities has been fraying for years, and 2024 was the year the thread finally snapped.
✨ Don't miss: When Does Joe Biden's Term End: What Actually Happened
The Suburban "Purple" Fade
For a few years, the big story was the "Blue Spine"—that stretch of I-35 connecting Austin, San Antonio, and Dallas-Fort Worth. Democrats were making huge gains in the suburbs. Places like Collin County and Denton County were supposed to be the keys to the kingdom.
But the 2024 data shows the suburbs took a breather from their leftward sprint.
In Collin County (the massive suburban sprawl north of Dallas), Trump won by 11 points. In 2020, Biden had managed to narrow that gap to just 4 points. The "angry suburban voter" narrative that helped Democrats in 2018 and 2020 didn't seem to have the same teeth this time around.
Even in Fort Bend County, which had become a poster child for the "diverse, educated, blue-leaning suburb," the Democratic margin shrank from 11 points down to basically a tie.
Why the Blue Wave Missed the Coast
So, will Texas turn blue? If you’re looking at 2024, the answer looks like a firm "not yet." There are a few big reasons why the needle moved the other way:
- The Economy Trumps Everything: In exit polls, Texas voters overwhelmingly cited the economy as their #1 issue. When people feel like they can't afford groceries, they tend to vote against the party in power in Washington.
- The Latino Shift: Republicans made historic gains with Latino men specifically. Trump won 55% of the Latino vote in Texas, according to some exit polls. You can't win Texas as a Democrat if you lose the majority of the Hispanic vote.
- Voter Turnout Disparity: Republican turnout was robust. Democratic turnout, especially in urban strongholds like Houston and Dallas, didn't hit the "emergency" levels needed to offset rural losses.
- Messaging Mismatch: While Allred and Harris focused heavily on abortion rights—a winning issue in many states—it didn't seem to resonate as the primary motivator for the undecided Texas voter, who was more preoccupied with the border and inflation.
Misconceptions About the Texas Electorate
One thing people get wrong is thinking Texas is a "red state." It’s actually more of a "non-voting state." Texas consistently has some of the lowest voter turnout rates in the country.
🔗 Read more: Fire in Idyllwild California: What Most People Get Wrong
If you look at the raw numbers, there are millions of unregistered or non-voting citizens in the big cities. The theory was always that if you could just get them to the polls, the state would flip overnight.
But 2024 showed that new voters aren't automatically Democrats. In fact, many of the "low-propensity" voters who showed up this time were actually there for Trump. The "sleeping giant" woke up, but it was wearing a red hat.
What Happens Next?
Is the "Blue Texas" project dead? Probably not. The state is still getting younger and more urban in the long run. But the 2024 results suggest that Democrats can’t just wait for the clock to run out; they have to actually win people over on policy, especially in the Rio Grande Valley and the working-class suburbs.
For Republicans, 2024 was a massive validation of their "outreach" strategy. They stopped treating the border as "enemy territory" and started treating it as a base. It worked.
If you’re tracking the future of Texas politics, here are your next steps:
- Watch the 2026 Gubernatorial Race: That will be the next big test. If Republicans keep these margins in a non-presidential year, the "blue Texas" talk might vanish for a generation.
- Monitor Voter Registration in South Texas: Check the Secretary of State’s data to see if the GOP’s gains in the Valley are translating into permanent party registration shifts.
- Follow the Urban Turnout Trends: Keep an eye on Harris County (Houston). If Democrats can't figure out how to maximize turnout there, they have no path to 50% statewide.
Texas remains the ultimate prize in American politics. But for now, the Lone Star stays firmly red.