Nvidia is the only stock that feels like a sports team these days. People don't just trade it; they cheer for it or they pray for its downfall. After the meteoric rise of 2023 and 2024, the inevitable pullbacks have left every retail investor and hedge fund manager asking the same thing: will nvidia go back up or have we finally hit the ceiling of the AI bubble?
It's a rollercoaster. One day Jensen Huang is on stage in a leather jacket announcing a new chip that basically computes the future, and the stock jumps 5%. The next day, a random Department of Justice subpoena rumor or a slight delay in the Blackwell architecture sends the price tumbling. Honestly, the volatility is enough to give anyone whiplash. But if you look past the daily candles and the screaming heads on CNBC, the fundamental story of Nvidia hasn't actually changed that much. It’s still the "arms dealer" of the greatest technological shift since the internet.
The Blackwell Delay Drama and Why It Might Not Matter
You’ve probably heard about the Blackwell "stumble." This is the big one. Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell chips were supposed to be the catalyst for the next leg of growth, but reports surfaced about design flaws and thermal issues. When you're the most valuable company in the world, even a three-month delay feels like a death sentence to impatient traders.
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Engineering is hard. Moving from the H100 architecture to Blackwell involves complex liquid cooling and interconnects that have never been done at this scale. Morgan Stanley analysts, led by Joseph Moore, have noted that while these "hiccups" are real, they don't represent a lack of demand. In fact, it’s the opposite. The demand is so high that customers are willing to wait. They have to wait. There is literally no one else to go to if you want to train a trillion-parameter model.
AMD is trying. Intel is... well, Intel is trying too. But Nvidia’s moat isn't just the silicon; it’s CUDA. That’s the software layer that millions of developers have spent a decade building on. Switching away from Nvidia isn't just about buying a different chip; it’s like trying to translate a whole library from English to a language that hasn't been fully invented yet. That’s why the question of will nvidia go back up usually finds its answer in the sheer lack of alternatives.
Hyper-Scaler Spending: The $100 Billion Bet
Let’s talk about the Big Four: Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), Meta, and Amazon. These guys are Nvidia’s best customers. In their latest earnings calls, Mark Zuckerberg and Satya Nadella basically said the same thing: the risk of under-investing in AI is much higher than the risk of over-investing.
Meta alone is projected to spend billions on infrastructure. They are building "Llama" models that require tens of thousands of H100s and B200s. Critics argue that we haven't seen the "killer app" for AI yet—the thing that justifies all this spending. Where is the ROI? It’s a fair point. But for Nvidia, it doesn't matter yet. As long as Big Tech is in an arms race, they will keep buying the ammo.
The stock price often reflects a "fear of the peak." Investors worry that once Google finishes its latest data center, they’ll stop buying. But AI models are getting bigger, not smaller. GPT-5 (or whatever it ends up being called) will require significantly more compute than GPT-4. We are moving toward "Reasoning" models like OpenAI’s o1 series, which use more compute at inference time, not just training. This shift is a massive tailwind. It means Nvidia isn't just selling chips to build the brain; they're selling the energy the brain needs to think every single time someone asks a question.
The Valuation Argument: Is It Too Expensive?
"It's a bubble!"
People have been screaming that since Nvidia hit $400 (pre-split). Then $600. Then $1000. Now that we’ve had splits and price adjustments, the noise is just as loud. But here is the weird part: Nvidia is actually "cheaper" now on a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) basis than it was a year ago.
How? Because their earnings grew faster than the stock price.
When a company grows revenue by 200% year-over-year, a high P/E ratio is deceptive. According to Bloomberg data, Nvidia’s forward P/E has frequently hovered around 30 to 45. Compare that to Cisco during the dot-com bubble, which hit a P/E of over 100 while revenue was barely growing. Nvidia is making actual, cold, hard cash. Their gross margins are near 75%. That is unheard of for a hardware company. Usually, making physical things is a low-margin grind. Nvidia has turned silicon into software-like margins.
The Geopolitical Elephant in the Room
We can't talk about will nvidia go back up without mentioning China. This is the biggest "if." The U.S. government keeps tightening export controls. They don't want the most powerful AI chips ending up in Chinese military tech.
Nvidia has had to neuter its chips (like the H20) to meet these regulations. It’s a game of cat and mouse. Every time Nvidia makes a slower chip for the Chinese market, the Commerce Department considers banning that one too. China used to account for a huge chunk of Nvidia’s revenue—nearly 20-25% at one point. That has dropped significantly.
The silver replaces the gold, though. Demand from sovereign nations—countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and even various European states—is picking up the slack. They want their own "Sovereign AI." They don't want to rely on American or Chinese clouds. They want their own data centers on their own soil. This is a brand new market that didn't exist two years ago.
Technical Analysis: What the Charts Are Whispering
If you're a chart person, you know Nvidia loves its moving averages. It tends to bounce off the 100-day or 200-day moving average like it’s a trampoline. Whenever the "RSI" (Relative Strength Index) gets too high, the stock cools off for a month or two. This is healthy.
Parabolic moves aren't sustainable. If Nvidia just went up 10% every week, the crash would be catastrophic. The "sideways" chop we see sometimes is just the market digesting the gains. It’s the "pause that refreshes." Resistance levels near previous all-time highs are the current battleground. Once the market gets clarity on the Blackwell shipping timeline—likely in the coming quarters—that's usually the catalyst for a breakout.
What Could Actually Kill the Rally?
It’s not all sunshine and leather jackets. There are real risks.
- The "AI Summer" turns into an "AI Winter": If companies realize that AI agents aren't actually saving them money or increasing productivity, they will stop the 10-figure orders.
- Custom Silicon: Google has TPUs (Tensor Processing Units). Amazon has Trainium and Inferentia. Apple makes its own M-series chips. If the big customers start using their own chips for everything, Nvidia loses its biggest buyers.
- Macroeconomic Collapse: If the U.S. enters a hard recession, even the "God King" of stocks will get sold off. People sell what they have gains in to cover losses elsewhere.
Is the Bottom In?
Trying to time the exact bottom is a fool's errand. But looking at the trajectory of human history, we have never needed less compute. We always need more. From the first mainframe to the smartphone, the demand for processing power is an up-and-to-the-right line.
Nvidia is currently at the center of that universe. They aren't just a chip company; they are a platform. Between their software, their networking (Mellanox was a genius acquisition), and their GPUs, they have a stranglehold on the infrastructure of the next twenty years.
So, will nvidia go back up? If you believe that AI is a fad like 3D TVs or Segways, then no. It’s going to zero. But if you think we are in the early stages of a fundamental shift in how humans interact with machines, then the current price might look like a bargain in 2027.
Actionable Steps for Investors
- Check the Data Center Revenue: Ignore the gaming segment for a bit. Watch the Data Center numbers in the quarterly reports. That is the only heartbeat that matters right now.
- Watch the Competition: Keep an eye on AMD’s MI300 and MI325X. If they start stealing double-digit market share, Nvidia’s pricing power might take a hit.
- Dollar Cost Average: Don't go "all in" at the top of a green candle. If you believe in the long-term story, buying in small increments over time (DCA) reduces the pain of the 10% drops that Nvidia is famous for.
- Monitor the Hyperscalers: Listen to the Capex (Capital Expenditure) guidance from Microsoft and Meta. As long as they are increasing their budget for "AI infrastructure," Nvidia’s order book is safe.
- Understand the "Inference" Shift: Research how chips are used for running AI, not just training it. This is where the long-term, recurring revenue lives.
Nvidia remains the most important company in the most important sector of the global economy. It’s messy, it’s volatile, and it’s expensive—but being the leader of a revolution usually is.