It is that time of year again where every single cloud over the Space Needle gets interrogated. You know the drill. We start refreshing the weather apps, eyeing the Olympic Mountains for a hint of white, and wondering if we should finally buy that snow shovel we’ve been putting off for three winters.
Honestly, predicting snow in the Pacific Northwest is a bit like trying to predict a cat's mood. One minute it’s all purrs and rain, the next it’s a full-blown "Snowpocalypse" that shuts down I-5 for three days.
So, will it snow in Seattle this year?
The short answer is: maybe, but don't bet your paycheck on a blizzard just yet. We are currently sitting in the middle of a weak La Niña cycle. Historically, La Niña is the "snow phase" for Washington. But this year, things are feeling a little weird.
The La Niña Reality Check
If you follow local meteorologists like the folks over at the University of Washington’s climate office, you’ve probably heard the term "La Niña" tossed around like a football. In a typical La Niña year, the jet stream pushes further south, opening a "fridge door" of cold air from Canada.
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When that cold air hits the moisture coming off the Pacific? Boom. Snow.
But here is the catch for 2026. The Climate Prediction Center is reporting that this La Niña is actually pretty weak. In fact, there is about a 75% chance that we transition into "ENSO-neutral" conditions between January and March.
Basically, the cooling of the Pacific Ocean is losing its grip.
What does that mean for your commute?
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- Temperatures: Most forecasts suggest we will stay slightly cooler than normal through February, but we aren't seeing signs of a deep, prolonged freeze.
- Precipitation: It’s going to be wet. We are looking at a 40-50% chance of higher-than-average rain.
- The Snow Window: Our best "statistical" shot at seeing white stuff on the ground is late January or early February.
Why Seattle Snow is So Hard to Predict
Seattle is a meteorological nightmare for forecasters. We have the "Convergence Zone," where winds from the north and south collide over King County. Sometimes it creates a narrow band of heavy snow in Lynnwood while it’s perfectly sunny in Renton.
I remember the 2019 "Snowmageddon." Nobody saw that coming until it was literally on top of us. That’s because Seattle snow depends on a perfect, rare alignment:
- Cold air from the Fraser River Valley in Canada.
- A moisture-rich storm coming from the Pacific.
- The temperature staying exactly at or below 32°F.
If it’s 33°F? It’s just a cold, miserable rain.
Right now, the current data from early 2026 shows a lot of 40-degree days ahead. For example, looking at the mid-January stretch, highs are hovering around 45°F to 49°F. That is well above the "danger zone" for snow. We might see some "slushy" flakes mixed in with rain on the colder nights, but nothing that’s going to let you build a snowman in Gas Works Park.
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What History Tells Us
Seattle averages about 6.3 inches of snow a year. But that number is a total lie. Some years we get zero. Some years, like 1950, we get 60 inches.
Most of our big snow events happen in February. Even if January stays dry and boring, don't count out a late-winter surprise. The "February Fake-out" is a real thing here. We get a few days of 55-degree sun, the cherry blossoms think it’s spring, and then—wham—four inches of powder.
Actionable Tips for Seattleites This Winter
Since the forecast for will it snow in Seattle this year is leaning toward "light and patchy" rather than "heavy and consistent," you don't need to go into full survivalist mode. However, being a prepared Seattleite is better than being the person sliding sideways down Queen Anne Hill.
- Check the Fraser River Outflow: If you see the National Weather Service mentioning "Fraser Outflow winds," that’s your signal to worry. That’s the cold air source.
- Get the "right" salt: Don't use heavy rock salt if you have pets or a nice concrete driveway. Look for magnesium chloride or calcium chloride.
- Watch the dew point: If the temperature is 35°F but the dew point is 25°F, it can actually start snowing as the air saturates. This is a pro-tip for weather nerds.
- Prep your car now: Even if it doesn't snow, we will have black ice. Check your tire tread. If you have "summer" tires, swap them. They turn into hockey pucks below 40 degrees.
The most likely scenario for the rest of 2026? A few "close calls" where the rain turns to flakes for twenty minutes and everyone panics on Twitter, followed by a lot of grey, drizzly 42-degree afternoons.
Keep your boots by the door just in case, but maybe don't cancel your February hiking plans just yet.
Next Steps for Staying Safe:
- Monitor the NWS Seattle Twitter feed specifically for "Special Weather Statements" regarding evening freezes.
- Download a high-resolution radar app like RadarScope to see the difference between rain and snow mix in real-time.
- Insulate your outdoor spigots now, as even without snow, the late-January "neutral" transition often brings sharp, dry freezes that burst pipes.