Honestly, if you’re living in San Antonio right now, you’ve probably already heard the buzz. Every time a cold front dips below the Red River, the same question starts floating around coffee shops and HEB aisles: is this the one? Are we actually going to see flakes, or is it just another "brown winter" where the grass stays dead and the sky stays gray?
The short answer for this week? Yes, there is a legitimate chance.
Specifically, looking at the forecast for Saturday, January 24, 2026, the National Weather Service is tracking a transition from rain to a rain and snow mix during the overnight hours. It’s not a 1985-style "Great Snowstorm" blizzard—at least not yet—but with a 40% chance of snow on Saturday night and another 20% chance on Sunday morning, it's enough to make anyone who lived through the 2021 freeze a little twitchy.
The Current Forecast for San Antonio
We’ve been on a bit of a rollercoaster lately. Just this past Sunday, January 18, we hit a low of 30°F, marking a hard freeze that had everyone wrapping their pipes and bringing in the succulents. But then, Texas did that thing it does. Temperatures are climbing back into the 60s and even 70s for the middle of this week.
But don't get comfortable.
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By Friday night, January 23, the bottom drops out. We’re looking at a high-percentage rain event (75% chance) that crashes into a cold air mass on Saturday. As the temperature falls toward a low of 40°F on Saturday night, that rain is expected to start mixing with snow.
Here is the breakdown of the coming "snow window" according to the latest data:
- Saturday Night (Jan 24): Rain and snow mix likely. Low of 40°F. Wind from the north at 13 mph.
- Sunday Morning (Jan 25): Mostly cloudy with a 20% lingering chance of snow. High of 48°F.
- Sunday Night (Jan 25): 5% chance of flurries. Low of 38°F.
It's a tight margin. Usually, for San Antonio to get the "good stuff," we need the moisture to stay while the mercury dips below 32°F. Right now, the forecast has us hovering just above freezing. That usually means "slush" more than "snowmen," but in South Texas, we take what we can get.
Why Snow in the Alamo City Is So Weird
Kinda feels like we’re always "due" for a snow event, doesn't it? Historically, San Antonio sees measurable snow about once every four to five years. If you count our last big hit in February 2021, we are technically right in that window where the statistics say something should happen.
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But the science is rarely that clean.
San Antonio sits in a geographic "no man's land" for winter weather. We’re too far south for the consistent Arctic air that hits Dallas, but we’re just far enough inland to avoid the moderating influence of the Gulf of Mexico that keeps Corpus Christi warm. To get snow here, everything has to be perfect. You need a deep trough in the jet stream to pull air from Canada, but you also need a Pacific moisture feed or a Gulf low to provide the "fuel."
If the cold air gets here too fast, it dries out the atmosphere—we call that a "blue norther." Beautiful, clear, but bone-dry.
If the moisture gets here too early, it’s just a cold, miserable rain.
What we're seeing for the 24th is a classic "overrunning" pattern. Cold air slides in at the surface while warmer, moist air rides over the top of it. This is exactly the setup that led to the 1.9 inches we saw in December 2017.
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Lessons from the Past: 1985 vs. 2021
Most people talk about 1985 like it was a myth. On January 11 and 12 of that year, the city didn't just get a dusting; it got buried under 13.5 inches of snow. People were literally skiing down the hills in Olmos Park.
Then you have February 2021. That wasn't fun. That was a survival situation. Between 3 to 6 inches of snow fell across the city, but the real story was the infrastructure collapse.
Honestly, the city is much more prepared now. The City of San Antonio and the NWS have been much more aggressive with "Hard Freeze Warnings," like the one issued for January 18, 2026. They aren't waiting for the snow to fall to tell people to protect the "4 P’s": People, Pets, Plants, and Pipes.
What to Do Before Saturday
Since there is a 40% chance of a rain/snow mix on Saturday night, you've basically got a few days to get your act together. Don't be the person at the hardware store Friday night looking for a faucet cover when they've been sold out for three hours.
- Check your insulation: If you didn't wrap your pipes for the freeze on the 18th, do it now. The wind on Saturday night will be around 13 mph from the north, which creates a nasty wind chill.
- Watch the timing: The transition from rain to snow is currently pegged for Saturday night. If you have plans to be out at the Pearl or downtown, keep an eye on the radar. Bridges and overpasses in San Antonio freeze way faster than the actual roads because of our humidity.
- Don't panic-buy milk: Seriously. It’s a mix, not a blizzard. You’ll be able to get to the store by Monday when it's back in the 50s.
The weather in South Texas is basically a mood swing. We’re going from a sunny 68°F on Monday to a possible snowflake sighting by the weekend. Stay weather-aware, keep your pets inside, and maybe—just maybe—keep the camera ready for a few white flakes on the windshield Saturday night.
Track the Saturday night transition closely on the NWS Austin/San Antonio social media feeds, as even a 2-degree shift in the forecast low could turn a "rain/snow mix" into a dusting of actual accumulation.