If you’ve spent any time on political Twitter—or "X," whatever we're calling it these days—you’ve seen the clips. Gavin Newsom, the slick-haired, sharp-tongued Governor of California, leaning into a microphone to dismantle a Republican talking point with the precision of a trial lawyer. He’s got the look. He’s got the donor base. And, frankly, he’s got the ambition that practically radiates off him in 4K resolution.
But the question isn't just "Can he?" it’s will Gavin Newsom run for president in 2028?
Honestly, the answer used to be a lot of "who knows?" and "I’m focused on California." But things shifted recently. In late 2025, Newsom finally dropped the act, telling CBS News he’d be "lying" if he said he wasn't considering it. That’s about as close to a "yes" as you get in politics before the paperwork is filed. He’s basically waiting for the 2026 midterms to wrap up before he goes all in.
The 2026 Midterm Strategy
Most people think a presidential run starts with an announcement on a stage with a bunch of flags. It doesn't. It starts with a "shadow campaign." Newsom is currently in the middle of a massive one.
His term as governor ends in January 2027. He’s a lame duck now. But instead of quietly fading into a lucrative tech board seat or a winery gig, he’s been acting like a national firebrand. He’s been picking fights with the Trump administration over everything from immigration raids in Los Angeles to federal funding for wildfire recovery.
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"Fate will determine that," Newsom said regarding 2028, but his actions suggest he's trying to give fate a very strong nudge in the right direction.
He’s even been using his political action committee (PAC) to fundraise for Democrats in swing states. Why? Because if you want to run for president, you need friends in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. By helping local candidates there now, he’s collecting "IOUs" he can cash in during the 2028 primaries.
The Kamala Harris Factor
You can't talk about Newsom without talking about Vice President Kamala Harris. They’ve known each other for decades. They share a donor pool. They both come from the same San Francisco political machine.
If they both run, it’s a civil war. Harris has already hinted she’s "not done" after the 2024 loss. If she jumps in, Newsom has a choice: stay out and keep the peace, or run against her and risk burning down the California Democratic house. Right now, polling shows Newsom is a heavy favorite among the "anti-Trump" wing of the party, but Harris still holds a lot of sway with the traditional base.
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What Most People Get Wrong About His Record
Critics love to point at California’s problems. High taxes. The homeless crisis. People moving to Texas. They say these issues make him "unelectable" in the Midwest.
Newsom knows this. It’s why his recent 2026 State of the State address sounded more like a national stump speech than a report to the legislature. He touted a 9% drop in unsheltered homelessness—a specific number he’s using to blunt the "failed state" narrative. He also mentioned $11 insulin and California’s $23 billion in reserves. He’s trying to prove that "California values" actually work for the middle class, not just the elite.
- The Dyslexia Narrative: He’s leanin' into his personal story more. He often talks about his 960 SAT score and his struggle with dyslexia. It’s a way to humanize a guy who often comes off as "too polished."
- The AI Boom: He’s banking on the Silicon Valley artificial intelligence surge to keep California’s coffers full. If the tech economy stays hot, he has the "windfall" money to fund social programs that make for great campaign ads.
The Timeline To Watch
If you’re wondering when the official "Will Gavin Newsom run for president" question gets answered, mark your calendar for November 2026.
Once the midterm results are in, the 2028 cycle starts immediately. If Democrats do well, Newsom will take credit for his fundraising efforts. If they do poorly, he’ll position himself as the "fighter" the party needs to stage a comeback.
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Obstacles In The Way
It’s not all sunshine and Napa Valley wine, though. There are some serious hurdles:
- The "California Derangement Syndrome": Republicans have spent a decade turning Newsom into a caricature of a "liberal elitist." That’s hard to shake in the Rust Belt.
- High-Speed Rail: Trump has already mocked Newsom’s "train to nowhere." It’s a symbol of government overspending that will haunt him in a general election.
- The Budget Deficit: While he claims a windfall now, California’s budget is notoriously volatile. If the economy dips in 2027, he leaves office on a low note.
Why 2028 Is Different
In previous cycles, Newsom was always the "next big thing" who never actually jumped. In 2024, he stayed loyal to Biden. But 2028 is his last real window. He’ll be out of office, he’ll have the national profile, and he clearly has the itch.
He’s already started his "literary rite of passage"—a memoir set for release in February 2026. In the world of politics, writing a book about your life is basically the universal signal for "I’m running for something big."
Actionable Insights For Political Observers
- Watch the PAC spending: Keep an eye on where Newsom’s "Campaign for Democracy" PAC sends its money in 2026. If it’s going to school board races in Iowa or New Hampshire, he’s definitely running.
- Monitor the Harris-Newsom dynamic: Watch for "anonymous sources" in the New York Times or Politico. If the camps start leaking dirt on each other, the 2028 primary has already begun.
- Look at the 2027 "Lame Duck" period: Once he leaves the Governor’s office in early 2027, does he take a quiet job, or does he start a national "listening tour"? A listening tour is just a campaign without the FEC paperwork.
Newsom is playing a long game. He’s spent 2025 and 2026 rebranding himself from a regional administrator to a national ideological leader. Whether or not he can convince a voter in a diner in Ohio that he’s the right guy to lead the country is another story entirely. But one thing is certain: he’s not going away.
Check the donor filings in late 2026 to see if major national bundlers are shifting their support from the DNC toward Newsom-aligned groups. This will be the first concrete indicator of his "official" intentions. Also, keep an eye on his travel schedule during the summer of 2026; visits to non-border states like South Carolina or Nevada are rarely just for the scenery.