If you were looking for a nail-biter on election night, the Sunshine State basically told everyone to go home early. For decades, we were the center of the political universe. Remember 2000? Hanging chads and 537 votes? That era is dead. Honestly, buried. People kept asking will Florida go blue in 2024, and the answer came back in a shade of red so deep it’s practically ruby.
Donald Trump didn't just win here. He demolished the competition by 13 percentage points. That is a massive jump from the three-point gap in 2020. We’re talking about a 1.4 million vote difference.
It's wild.
The Miami-Dade Earthquake
The biggest story isn't just that the state stayed red. It's where it happened. Miami-Dade County has been a Democratic fortress for decades. No Republican presidential candidate had won it since 1988. Not even when the state was a toss-up.
💡 You might also like: Why the 2013 Moore Oklahoma Tornado Changed Everything We Knew About Survival
Then 2024 happened.
Trump flipped Miami-Dade by double digits. You’ve got to understand how crazy that is for local political junkies. He won about 55% of the vote there. It wasn't just a slight shift; it was a total realignment of the Hispanic vote. Specifically, Cuban and Venezuelan voters in South Florida didn't just "lean" Republican—they showed up in droves to support the GOP.
Why the polling was off
A lot of people were looking at the abortion and marijuana amendments (Amendments 4 and 3) thinking they’d drag Democrats across the finish line. There was this theory that liberal-leaning voters would turn out for the ballot initiatives and then just happen to vote for Kamala Harris while they were at it.
📖 Related: Ethics in the News: What Most People Get Wrong
It didn't work.
- Voter Registration: By the time November rolled around, Republicans had a 1-million-person lead in registered voters.
- Split Tickets: Thousands of people voted "Yes" on legal weed or abortion rights but still checked the box for Trump or Rick Scott.
- The "DeSantis" Effect: Even though he wasn't on the ballot, the Governor's aggressive campaigning against the amendments kept the GOP base locked in.
Is the "Swing State" Label Dead?
Kinda seems that way. If you look at the map, Harris only managed to hang on to a few blue islands: Broward, Orange, Leon, Alachua, Gadsden, and (barely) Palm Beach. Even in Palm Beach, it was a razor-thin margin.
People moved here in huge numbers after 2020. A lot of them were fleeing "blue" states because they liked the way Florida handled things like taxes and school openings. That changed the math. When you add a million Republicans to the rolls and lose 300,000 Democrats, the "will Florida go blue in 2024" question starts to look like wishful thinking from a bygone era.
👉 See also: When is the Next Hurricane Coming 2024: What Most People Get Wrong
The Rick Scott Factor
Senator Rick Scott has a history of winning by the skin of his teeth. His previous races were decided by less than 1%. This time? He cruised to a 13-point victory over Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. That tells you this wasn't just about the top of the ticket. It was a complete rejection of the Democratic platform across the board in the state.
What it means for the future
The Democratic Party in Florida is basically in a "rebuilding century" at this point. They’ve struggled with funding and a clear message that resonates outside of the college towns.
If you're a Democrat in Florida, the numbers are grim. But politics is cyclical. Eventually, the pendulum usually swings back, though "eventually" might be a decade away. For now, the GOP has a supermajority in the state legislature and holds every single statewide elected office. They own the place.
Actionable Insights for the 2026 Cycle
If you’re watching the 2026 midterms or looking toward 2028, here is what actually matters for the Florida landscape:
- Watch the I-4 Corridor: Areas like Pinellas and Hillsborough counties used to be the "swing" parts of the state. They both went red in 2024. If Democrats can't win back the Tampa suburbs, they have no path to 50% statewide.
- Hispanic Outreach: The GOP's grip on the Hispanic vote in Florida is now the national blueprint. If Democrats don't change their messaging in Hialeah and Doral, they can kiss South Florida goodbye for good.
- Voter Rolls Matter: Stop looking at TV ads and start looking at registration data. The GOP lead is still growing. Unless Democrats start a massive, multi-year ground game to register new voters, the math simply won't work.
The 2024 results weren't a fluke. They were the final nail in the coffin of Florida as a "purple" state. If you want to see where the state is headed, don't look at the rallies—look at the moving trucks coming over the Georgia border. They're bringing the new Florida with them.