Everyone in the crypto world was holding their breath leading up to the 2024 election. It felt like a movie. One side of the aisle was seen as the "regulation by enforcement" crowd, led by Gary Gensler's SEC, while Donald Trump was out there on the campaign trail promising to make America the "crypto capital of the planet."
Now that we’re sitting in early 2026, we don’t have to guess anymore. We’ve seen the "Trump Trade" in full swing. Honestly, if you’re asking will bitcoin go up if trump wins, the answer has already played out in a massive way, but the "why" is way more complicated than just a friendly tweet or a campaign promise. It’s about a total rewiring of the U.S. financial system.
The "Trump Pump" and the $100,000 Milestone
The moment the 2024 election results started leaning toward a Trump victory, Bitcoin went vertical. It wasn't a slow climb. It was a violent, green candle that smashed through old records. By the time Inauguration Day rolled around on January 20, 2025, Bitcoin hit a staggering all-time high of $109,241.
Think about that for a second.
On Election Day, the price was hovering around $69,500. That’s a 60% surge in just a few months. Why? Because markets hate uncertainty, and Trump provided a very specific kind of certainty: the government was going to stop suing every crypto company in sight.
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The "vibe shift" was real. Investors weren't just buying a coin; they were betting on a change in the rules of the game. When people ask if Bitcoin goes up under Trump, they're really asking if the regulatory boot will be lifted off the industry's neck. So far, the answer has been a resounding yes, though the path hasn't been a straight line up.
Personnel is Policy: Goodbye Gensler, Hello Atkins
You've probably heard the saying "personnel is policy." In the crypto world, this was the biggest deal of 2025. One of the first things that happened after the win was the departure of Gary Gensler. For years, the SEC had been the boogeyman for Bitcoin holders.
Trump replaced the old guard with Paul Atkins, a guy who actually understands how decentralized networks work. This wasn't just a cosmetic change. Almost immediately, the SEC started dropping lawsuits. They walked away from cases against Coinbase and Kraken. They even paused the litigation against Binance.
When the government stops fighting you, you can finally build. That’s why the price didn't just spike and crash; it found a new floor.
The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: A Game Changer?
One of the wildest ideas floating around was the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve." Trump actually signed an executive order in March 2025 to establish this. The plan wasn't necessarily to go out and buy a million Bitcoin with taxpayer money—at least not yet. Instead, the U.S. government decided to stop selling the Bitcoin it already had.
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The U.S. is one of the largest holders of Bitcoin in the world, mostly thanks to seizures from criminals. Usually, the Marshals Service auctions these off. Trump’s order changed that. It treated Bitcoin like digital gold, keeping it in a "stockpile."
When the largest economy on earth decides it’s going to "HODL," the rest of the world notices. Nations like Ethiopia and Bhutan were already mining, but once the U.S. signaled a strategic interest, the conversation shifted from "is this a scam?" to "is this a national security asset?"
The Tariff Problem: A Double-Edged Sword
It hasn't all been "up and to the right," though. By late 2025 and into early 2026, we hit some turbulence. Trump’s aggressive tariff policies—aimed at China, Mexico, and even Canada—started to rattle the markets.
Here’s where it gets tricky for Bitcoin:
- The Inflation Hedge: If tariffs make goods more expensive, inflation goes up. Usually, Bitcoin loves that. It’s the "digital gold" hedge against a devaluing dollar.
- The Risk-Off Reality: When a trade war gets nasty, investors get scared. They sell "risky" stuff and buy boring stuff like actual gold or 10-year Treasuries.
In early 2026, we saw Bitcoin pull back from those $110,000 highs down to the $80,000-$90,000 range. People were worried about the global economy slowing down. It turns out, even with a pro-crypto president, Bitcoin is still tied to the big, messy world of global trade.
Real-World Impact: The GENIUS and CLARITY Acts
Beyond the headlines, the real reason Bitcoin has staying power under this administration is legislation. We saw the passage of the GENIUS Act in mid-2025. It sounds like a typical Washington name, but it actually stands for "Giving Electronic Notary and Infrastructure Underwriting Security."
Basically, it made it legal and easy for big banks to hold Bitcoin. Before this, it was a legal nightmare for your average bank to touch crypto. Now, it's becoming as common as a savings account.
Then came the CLARITY Act. This one has been a bit of a rollercoaster in 2026. It’s supposed to finally define what is a "security" and what is a "commodity." In January 2026, the bill stalled because Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase, pulled his support over some last-minute changes.
This shows that even with a friendly White House, the "Bitcoin goes up" narrative can be derailed by the fine print in a 300-page bill.
What Most People Get Wrong
The biggest misconception is that Trump "controls" the Bitcoin price. He doesn't. He influences the environment.
Bitcoin is a global asset. If the U.S. is friendly, that’s great. But if the rest of the world is in a recession, or if there's a massive "AI bubble" that bursts—as some analysts are fearing right now in 2026—Bitcoin will feel the pain.
Actually, some of the biggest gains recently haven't come from the White House at all. They’ve come from institutional adoption. When companies like BlackRock and Fidelity started offering Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, they opened the floodgates. Trump just made sure the gates stayed open.
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Actionable Insights for the Current Market
If you’re looking at the charts today, here’s how to navigate the "Trump Era" of crypto:
- Watch the SEC, not just the President: Keep an eye on the "Crypto 2.0" task force headed by Hester Peirce. If they continue to dismiss old lawsuits, the path to $150,000 remains open.
- Tariffs are the new inflation: Don't just watch CPI numbers. Watch the trade headlines. If a new round of 60% tariffs on China hits, expect Bitcoin to be volatile as the market tries to figure out if it's a "risk asset" or a "safe haven."
- The "De Minimis" tax break: One of the most underrated wins of the last year was the push for a tax exemption on small crypto transactions. If you can buy a coffee with Bitcoin without having to report a $0.50 capital gain to the IRS, actual usage will skyrocket.
- Don't ignore the "Strategic Reserve" progress: If the Treasury actually starts buying Bitcoin to add to the stockpile, rather than just holding seized coins, that is the "God Candle" everyone is waiting for.
The bottom line? Bitcoin did go up when Trump won. It went up a lot. But now we're in the "work" phase of the cycle. The hype is over, and the infrastructure is being built. It’s less about tweets now and more about how many Bitcoin are sitting on the U.S. balance sheet.
Start by reviewing your tax strategy under the new SAB 122 rules, which changed how custodians report your assets. It might save you a headache when the next tax season rolls around in April.