Every year, around late February or early March, something weird happens to sports fans. We all become armchair general managers. We start obsessing over hand size, 40-yard dash times, and whether a kid from a small school in North Dakota can handle the bright lights of a Monday Night Football game. You’ve probably seen the experts on TV—the Mel Kipers and the Daniel Jeremiahs of the world—churning out list after list. But honestly? Doing it yourself is better. When I decide to make my own mock draft, I’m not just guessing; I’m engaging with the sport on a level that a simple "best player available" list can’t touch.
It’s about control. It’s about that specific brand of "I told you so" that only comes when a third-round pick you loved ends up making the Pro Bowl.
The Psychology of the Mock Draft
Why do we do this? Why spend six hours on a Tuesday night staring at a screen trying to figure out if the Giants need a wide receiver more than a pass rusher? It’s basically a high-stakes puzzle. According to sports psychologists, fans who participate in mock drafts or fantasy sports feel a higher sense of "agency" over their viewing experience. You aren't just a passive observer anymore. You're a participant.
Most people start with the big names. Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Marvin Harrison Jr.—those are the easy ones. But the real meat of a draft happens in the trenches. If you're going to make my own mock draft feel authentic, you have to look at the boring stuff. You have to look at the offensive line. You have to understand that a team like the Steelers isn't just looking for "a player"; they are looking for a specific culture fit.
Tools That Don't Suck
You don't need a spreadsheet and a stack of scouting reports to get started. Thankfully. There are a few sites that have revolutionized this. PFF (Pro Football Focus) has a mock draft simulator that is frankly addictive. They use real data and "big boards" that update based on how players perform at the Combine.
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Then there’s Pro Network’s simulator or the one over at Mock Draft Database. What’s cool about these is the "user consensus" feature. It shows you what everyone else is doing. But here's a tip: ignore the consensus. If you want to make my own mock draft actually stand out, you have to be a little bit of a contrarian. If everyone thinks the Bears are taking a quarterback, maybe look at what happens if they trade down. That’s where the fun is.
Understanding Team Needs vs. Best Player Available
This is the eternal struggle. Do you draft for what you need today, or what will be great in three years?
Take the 2023 draft as a case study. The Houston Texans didn't just pick one star; they traded up to get Will Anderson Jr. right after taking C.J. Stroud. Nobody saw that coming. If you were sitting at home trying to make my own mock draft for the Texans, you probably would have played it safe. But real NFL GMs are aggressive. They’re caffeinated, they’re under pressure, and they’re often drafting for their jobs.
When you sit down to build your board, look at the "dead cap" hits for teams. If a veteran is making $20 million but his performance is dipping, that team is almost certainly drafting his replacement this year. It’s simple math, really.
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The Scouting Combine Trap
We all love the 40-yard dash. It’s electric. Seeing a 300-pound man run like a gazelle is objectively impressive. But don't let the "underwear Olympics" cloud your judgment.
- Game Tape is King: If a guy was slow on film but fast in Indy, trust the film.
- Medical Checks: This is the one thing we, as fans, never see. A player might drop three rounds because of a "concerning" knee scan that isn't public knowledge.
- The Interview: Teams care if a player is a leader. You can't measure heart with a stopwatch.
I remember when John Ross broke the 40-yard dash record. Everyone scrambled to make my own mock draft with him in the top ten. How’d that work out for the Bengals? Exactly. Speed is a tool, not a talent.
How to Handle Trades in Your Mock
If you really want to get sweaty with it, you have to project trades. This is where most mocks fall apart. To do this right, use the "Jimmy Johnson Draft Value Chart." It’s an old-school point system that GMs still use to ensure they aren't getting fleeced.
For example, the number one overall pick is worth 3,000 points. If a team wants to move up from the tenth spot (1,300 points), they have to make up that 1,700-point gap with future picks and second-rounders. It's a game of leverage. When you make my own mock draft, try to find the "desperation teams." The ones with an aging QB and a closing window. They are the ones who will overpay.
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The Post-Draft Hangover
The draft ends, and suddenly your beautiful mock is 80% wrong. That’s normal. Even the best in the business usually only get about 5 or 6 direct "player-to-team" hits in the first round. The goal isn't perfect accuracy. The goal is understanding the logic.
If you predicted the Eagles would take a defensive lineman and they took a different defensive lineman than the one you picked, you still won. You identified the "need" and the "philosophy." That’s what being an expert is about. It’s about the process, not just the result.
Practical Steps for Your First Mock
Don't overcomplicate it. Start with just the first round. Thirty-two picks.
- Step 1: Download a current Big Board from a reputable source like The Athletic or ESPN. This gives you a baseline of who the "best" players are.
- Step 2: List the top three needs for every team in the first round. If you don't know, look at their free agency losses.
- Step 3: Match them up. But—and this is important—throw in at least two "shocker" picks. A team taking a punter in the second round? Maybe not. A team taking a QB when they already have a decent starter? Happens every single year.
Actually sitting down to make my own mock draft changes the way you watch the games. You start noticing the left tackle's footwork because you spent three hours wondering if he’s a first-round talent. You notice the nickel corner because your favorite team desperately needs one.
Moving Forward with Your Scouting
Now that you've got the bug, start keeping a notebook. Every time you see a college highlight that makes you jump off the couch, write the name down. By the time next April rolls around, you won't be relying on Mel Kiper's hair to tell you who's good. You'll already know.
The next step is to head over to a simulator like Mock Draftable and look at the athletic percentiles. Compare your favorite prospects to current NFL stars. See if the "measurables" actually match the production. Once you start layering data on top of your gut feeling, your mocks will go from "guesses" to "projections." And that is where the real fun begins.