Luck is a weird thing. We usually talk about it like it’s a lightning bolt—something that either hits you or it doesn’t while you’re standing in an open field. But if you look at how people actually build careers, wealth, or even just a happy life, you start to realize that "luck" isn't a single, monolithic event. It’s actually layered.
James Austin, a neurologist back in the 70s, wrote a book called Chase, Chance, and Creativity. He was one of the first to really break down the idea that there are actually three kinds of lucky (and eventually a fourth) that dictate how our lives turn out. It’s not just about winning the lottery. Honestly, the lottery is the least interesting version of luck there is. It’s passive. It’s boring.
If you’re sitting there wondering why some people seem to have the Midas touch while you’re grinding away with nothing to show for it, it’s probably because you’re only looking for one specific type of fortune. You're waiting for the bolt. You're ignoring the fact that luck can be hunted, built, and even customized to your specific personality.
The Blind Luck of the Draw
The first type of luck is what most people mean when they use the word. Blind luck. It’s completely accidental. You’re walking down the street and find a hundred-dollar bill. You’re born into a wealthy family in a zip code with great schools. You happen to be born with a genetic predisposition for high intelligence or athletic prowess.
This is what Austin calls "Chance I." It requires absolutely zero effort on your part. You didn't do anything to deserve it, and you couldn't have prevented it if you tried. It just... happened.
Think about the "Warren Buffett Ovarian Lottery." Buffett talks about this all the time. He says if he’d been born in the same year but in a different country, his talent for capital allocation would have been worthless. If he were a hunter-gatherer, he’d be someone’s dinner. He got lucky because he was born in the United States at a time when the stock market was the primary engine of wealth. That’s blind luck. It’s powerful, but because you can’t control it, it’s not particularly useful to focus on.
Motion and the Luck of Stirring the Pot
Then things get interesting. The second of the three kinds of lucky is what happens when you simply refuse to sit still. This is "Chance II."
Imagine a room full of people. Most of them are standing in the corners. One person, however, is constantly walking around, shaking hands, trying the door handles, and peering into the kitchen. That person is going to "get lucky" more often than the people in the corners. Not because they’re smarter or more talented, but because they are increasing their surface area for accidents to happen.
Basically, this is luck derived from motion.
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When you’re active—when you’re writing blog posts, going to meetups, or just tinkering with side projects—you are generating energy. You’re stirring the pot. You might stumble onto a life-changing business partner because you went to a boring networking event on a Tuesday night when you really wanted to stay home and watch Netflix.
Was it "luck" that you met them? Sure. But it wouldn't have happened if you hadn't put yourself in motion.
Dr. Austin noted that this type of luck favors the persistent. It’s a numbers game. If you throw enough darts at a board, even with your eyes closed, you’re eventually going to hit something. The problem is that most people throw three darts, miss, and then complain that they aren't lucky. You have to be willing to throw a thousand darts. You have to be okay with looking a bit frantic.
The Prepared Mind and Specialization
The third type of luck is where things get sophisticated. This is "Chance III," or what Louis Pasteur famously alluded to when he said, "Fortune favors the prepared mind."
This isn't about moving around a lot. It’s about being so deeply steeped in a specific field that you can see a lucky break where everyone else just sees noise. You develop a "sixth sense" for opportunity.
Take Alexander Fleming and the discovery of penicillin.
Fleming wasn't looking for a miracle drug. He was a messy bacteriologist who left a petri dish out while he went on vacation. When he came back, he saw some mold had killed the bacteria. A lot of people would have just washed the dish and moved on. But Fleming had the background, the expertise, and the specific mental framework to realize that the "accident" was actually a breakthrough.
He was uniquely positioned to be lucky.
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This type of luck is actually a skill. It’s the result of years of deep work. When you become an expert in a niche—whether it’s SEO, vintage watch restoration, or municipal bond trading—you start noticing "glitches in the matrix" that other people miss. You see value where others see junk.
You’ve probably seen this in your own life. You’re talking to a friend about a problem they have, and suddenly a solution pops into your head that seems obvious. They think you’re a genius. You think you just got lucky with a good idea. In reality, your brain connected three different pieces of information you’ve been gathering for years.
Why We Get Luck Wrong
Most people treat luck as a binary: you have it or you don't. That’s a trap. It’s a very comfortable trap because if luck is just a random lightning bolt, then you don't have to feel bad about your lack of success. "Oh, I'm just not lucky," is a great excuse for not doing the work.
But when you understand the three kinds of lucky, the excuse falls apart.
- You can't control Blind Luck.
- You can control your level of Motion (Chance II).
- You can control your level of Preparation (Chance III).
If you aren't lucky yet, it's usually because you aren't moving enough or you haven't learned enough to recognize the opportunities passing you by. It sounds harsh, but it's actually incredibly empowering. It means luck is a variable you can optimize.
The Secret Fourth Luck: Unique Character
There is actually a fourth type of luck that Austin mentions, which is the most powerful and the hardest to achieve. This is "Chance IV." It’s luck that finds you because of who you are.
Think of a world-renowned deep-sea diver. If someone finds a sunken treasure chest at the bottom of the ocean, who are they going to call? They’re going to call that diver. The diver didn't have to be "in motion" that day. They didn't have to find the treasure themselves. The luck literally sought them out because they had built a unique reputation and a hyper-specific set of skills.
This is the ultimate goal. You want to become the only person who can do what you do. When you reach that level, "luck" becomes a recurring event. People bring you deals. People give you information. People offer you roles that aren't even advertised.
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It looks like magic to an outsider. To you, it’s just the result of becoming a "brand of one."
How to Build Your Luck Surface Area
If you want to stop waiting for luck and start creating it, you need to change how you spend your time. It’s not about working harder in a straight line; it’s about expanding your horizons.
Stop being a hermit. If you spend all day in your room, you are relying 100% on Blind Luck. The odds of a life-changing opportunity breaking down your front door are slim to none. You need to get out. Write online. Join a community. Start a conversation with a stranger. Generate some friction.
Develop a "Luck Filter." Pick a topic and go deep. Read the boring books. Learn the history. Understand the mechanics. The more you know about how a specific system works, the more likely you are to notice when that system produces a "lucky" anomaly.
Build a reputation for something specific. Don't just be a "marketing guy." Be the "guy who knows how to scale SaaS companies using localized SEO in the German market." When someone has a problem in that specific niche, they won't look for a generalist. They will look for you.
Be easy to help. People love sharing "lucky" opportunities with people they actually like. If you're a jerk, people will actively hide opportunities from you. Being a decent, reliable human being is perhaps the most underrated way to increase your luck.
Actionable Steps to Improve Your Luck
- Publish something once a week. Whether it's a tweet thread, a LinkedIn post, or a newsletter. This is pure Chance II. It puts you in the path of people you would never meet otherwise.
- Say "yes" to weird invitations. If someone asks you to go to a talk about a subject you know nothing about, go. New environments trigger new ways of thinking.
- Track your "near misses." When something almost goes right, figure out why it didn't. Did you lack the knowledge to seize it? Were you too slow to move? This is how you calibrate your "prepared mind."
- Connect two people every month. Become a hub for other people's luck. When you introduce two people who go on to do great things, you become part of their "luck story," and they will eventually return the favor.
Luck isn't something that happens to you. It's something you navigate. Once you stop waiting for the lightning bolt and start building the lightning rod, the world starts looking a whole lot different. You realize that the "lucky" people aren't just blessed—they're just better at playing the game.