You’re standing on 5th Avenue. It’s pouring. You’re soaked, your umbrella is doing that annoying thing where it flips inside out, and every single yellow taxi that rolls by has its light off. It feels like a conspiracy. Honestly, it’s one of those universal urban frustrations that makes you want to scream into the wind. People have been complaining about how they’re hard to hail in the rain since the first motorized hackney carriages hit the pavement, but why does it actually happen?
Is it just that everyone else had the same idea as you? Sorta. But there’s a lot more going on under the hood of urban economics and human psychology than just "more people want rides."
From shifting labor patterns to the literal physics of a wet windshield, the reason you’re stuck on the curb is a cocktail of bad timing and old-school industry quirks.
The Shift in Supply and Demand
The most obvious reason they’re hard to hail in the rain is the massive surge in demand. It’s not rocket science. People who would normally walk five blocks to the subway or bike to their office suddenly decide that staying dry is worth the $15 fare. According to various transit studies, including data analyzed by organizations like the Schaller Consulting group, taxi demand can spike by over 50% the moment the first droplets hit the ground.
But demand is only half the story.
If demand goes up, you’d think drivers would be rushing out to make a killing, right? Wrong. In many cities, the number of available drivers actually drops when the weather gets nasty.
Why Drivers Call It Quits
Driving a cab in a downpour sucks. It’s stressful. Visibility drops to near zero, pedestrians behave unpredictably—darting into traffic under hoods and umbrellas—and the risk of a fender bender skyrockets. For a lot of veteran drivers, the math just doesn't add up. If a driver gets into a minor accident because of slick roads, they lose their vehicle for days, face insurance hikes, and might lose their medallion or permit status.
Basically, many drivers decide the increased "hassle factor" isn't worth the extra tips. They go home. They grab a coffee. They wait for the sun.
Then there's the traffic. Rain slows everything down. A trip that takes ten minutes in the sun takes twenty-five in a storm. Since taxis often operate on a combination of distance and time (with the meter ticking slower when the car isn't moving), drivers actually make less money per hour when they’re stuck in gridlock. They’d rather be off the clock than staring at a sea of red brake lights for pennies.
The Economics of the "Target Earner"
There is a fascinating psychological phenomenon at play here called "income targeting." It was famously studied by economists like Colin Camerer and his colleagues, who looked at New York City cab drivers specifically to see how they decided when to stop working.
Most people assume that if you're a freelancer or a driver, you work more when business is booming to maximize your take-home pay. That’s the rational "Econ 101" way to think.
📖 Related: Kiko Japanese Restaurant Plantation: Why This Local Spot Still Wins the Sushi Game
But humans aren't always rational.
Many drivers have a daily "target" amount—say, $200. On a rainy day, because demand is through the roof, they hit that $200 goal much faster than they would on a slow, sunny Tuesday. Once they hit their number, they stop. They go home early to be with their families or just to get out of the rain. The result? At the exact moment the city needs the most cabs, the drivers are finishing their shifts and heading to the garage. It’s a complete misalignment of needs.
The Uber and Lyft Complication
We can't talk about why they’re hard to hail in the rain without mentioning rideshare apps. Before Uber, you were at the mercy of the street hail. Now, you have a "hail" in your pocket.
You might think apps solved the problem. They didn't. They just changed the shape of it.
Surge Pricing vs. The Flat Meter
Yellow cabs and traditional taxis usually have regulated fares. The price of a cab at 2:00 PM on a sunny day is the same as it is during a thunderstorm. There is no "surge" for a street hail taxi.
Uber and Lyft, however, use dynamic pricing. When it starts raining, those prices triple. This creates a weird two-tier system:
- People who can afford the $60 "priority" ride jump into a private hire vehicle.
- Everyone else—hundreds of people—all start frantically whistling and waving at the few remaining yellow cabs because they’re "only" $15.
This concentrates the entire "budget" population of a city onto a dwindling supply of street-hail vehicles. It makes the competition for that one cab with the light on feel like a scene out of a dystopian movie.
The Ghost Cab Phenomenon
Sometimes you see a cab, you wave, and they just drive right past you. It’s infuriating.
Usually, they aren't being mean. In the modern era, many traditional taxis are also hooked up to e-hail apps (like Curb or Arro). Even if they look empty, they might already be "booked" by someone three blocks away who used an app to snag them while they were still out of your sight. You're competing with people you can't even see.
Visibility and the "Hidden" Cab
Sometimes the cab is there, but you just can't see it. Or they can't see you.
👉 See also: Green Emerald Day Massage: Why Your Body Actually Needs This Specific Therapy
When it’s pouring, the glare from streetlights and shop signs bounces off the wet pavement and the rain-streaked windows. Drivers are hyper-focused on the car in front of them so they don't hydroplane. They aren't scanning the sidewalk for a person in a dark coat standing in a dim doorway.
The Physics of the Hail
- Spray: Large buses and trucks kick up "road spray," creating a mist that obscures pedestrians.
- Umbrella Obstruction: People holding umbrellas often hold them low to protect against wind, inadvertently blocking their own view of oncoming traffic and blocking the driver's view of their waving arm.
- The "Huddle" Effect: During rain, people congregate under awnings or subway entrances. This makes it impossible for a driver to distinguish a "potential passenger" from a "person just waiting for the rain to stop."
If you want to be seen, you have to be at the very edge of the curb, clearly separated from the crowd, and ideally wearing something that catches the light. But who wants to stand in a puddle just to be noticed?
Why "Shift Change" Always Seems to Happen During Storms
There is a legendary bit of New York City lore that it always starts raining right at 4:00 PM, which is when the taxis change shifts.
It’s not just a myth. Most fleet-operated taxis work on a two-shift system: 4:00 AM to 4:00 PM, and 4:00 PM to 4:00 AM. Around mid-afternoon, drivers have to return the car to the garage in Long Island City or the outer boroughs so the night driver can take over.
If a storm rolls in around 3:30 PM, those drivers aren't looking for one last fare. They are stressed about getting the car back on time to avoid late fees. They will flip their "Off Duty" sign on and ignore every soaking-wet person on the sidewalk. It’s a structural flaw in how the industry is timed.
The Global Perspective: It’s Not Just You
This isn't just a New York or London thing.
In Tokyo, the "rainy day taxi" is a known struggle, though the discipline of the drivers there often keeps more cars on the road. In Mumbai, the "black and yellow" cabs face the same issues with monsoon rains, where flooding actually makes it physically impossible for the small engines to navigate certain streets.
In London, Black Cabs are famously more reliable in the rain because of the rigorous "Knowledge" training drivers undergo. They know the side streets to avoid the gridlock. But even then, the sheer volume of people abandoning the bus for a cab makes the "hail" nearly impossible.
Real-World Hacks to Beating the Rain
Since we know why they’re hard to hail in the rain, we can actually use that info to our advantage. You have to think like a driver, not a passenger.
Don't Stand on a Main Avenue
Everyone stands on the big avenues. Drivers, however, hate main avenues in the rain because that’s where the gridlock is worst. Try walking half a block onto a side street that feeds into a major hotel or transit hub. Drivers dropping people off at hotels are "hot" leads—they just emptied their car and are looking for a quick turnaround.
✨ Don't miss: The Recipe Marble Pound Cake Secrets Professional Bakers Don't Usually Share
The "Inbound" Strategy
Look at the direction of traffic. If you are trying to get a cab in Midtown Manhattan heading uptown, but all the traffic is clogged going north, walk a few blocks south. Find where the cabs are coming into the busy area. Catch them before they get stuck in the mess.
The Hotel Doorman Trick
If you’re truly desperate, find the nearest high-end hotel. You don't have to be a guest. Stand near the entrance (but out of the way). Cabs are constantly cycling through hotel bays to drop off travelers. While doormen usually prioritize guests, a well-timed "Is there a line for a cab?" and a respectful nod (or a small tip) can get you into a car much faster than standing on a random corner.
Use the "Hybrid" Approach
Open your e-hail app (Curb/Uber/Lyft) to see where the cars are clustered on the map, then walk toward the cluster. Don't just wait for the app to "find" you. Sometimes moving one block over puts you in the path of a driver who just finished a drop-off.
Navigating the Future of the Hail
Will it ever get better? Probably not through human drivers alone. Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are being touted as the solution to the "income targeting" problem. A robot doesn't care if it's wet. A robot doesn't have a family to get home to or a "daily target" that makes it quit early.
However, AVs currently have a massive weakness: rain.
LiDAR and camera systems, which most self-driving cars rely on, struggle with heavy precipitation. The water droplets refract the lasers and blur the camera lenses. So, for the foreseeable future, we are stuck with the human element.
The reality of urban life is that some things are just inefficient. The "hail" is a romantic, analog gesture in a digital world. It relies on two humans seeing each other through a sheet of grey water and agreeing on a destination.
Actionable Next Steps for the Next Downpour
Next time the clouds break, don't just stand there waving. Take these specific steps:
- Check the "Shift Change" Clock: If it's between 3:30 PM and 5:00 PM, give up on a street hail. The logistics are against you. Head for the nearest subway or settle into a coffee shop for an hour.
- Positioning is Everything: Stand on the "passenger side" of the street (usually the right side of a one-way) just past an intersection. This gives the driver a safe place to pull over without blocking a whole line of honking cars.
- Make Yourself Visible: Use your phone's flashlight. Wave it toward oncoming traffic. It cuts through the rain glare much better than a pale hand.
- Try the "Secondary" Apps: Everyone jumps on Uber. Try the "Curb" app, which connects directly to yellow taxis. Often, there's a cab right around the corner that isn't on the Uber grid.
- Go Against the Flow: If everyone is trying to go from the office to the train station, try walking toward the office buildings. You’re looking for the "empty" cars returning from the station.
The frustration of the rain-soaked commute is a rite of passage in the city. Understanding the "why" doesn't keep you dry, but it does help you strategize. Stop fighting the crowd and start playing the odds.