The ghost of Max Scherzer’s grunt and Stephen Strasburg’s high-spin heater still haunts the mound at Nationals Park. For a few years there, honestly, it felt like the lights had just gone out on the mound in D.C. After the 2019 World Series high, the Washington Nationals pitching rotation became a revolving door of "who's that?" arms and veteran reclamation projects that didn't really reclaim much of anything. It was rough. You’d look at the box score and see five innings of three-run ball and think, "Hey, that’s actually progress."
But things are changing. Finally.
We aren't talking about a staff of established Cy Young winners anymore. This isn't the 2014 "Four Aces" era. Instead, Mike Rizzo has pivoted toward a high-variance, high-ceiling group of young arms that are starting to miss bats at an elite clip. If you've been paying attention to the underlying metrics—stuff like Pitching+ or even just the eye test on a Tuesday night in June—you can see the vision. It’s about velocity, vertical break, and a massive bet on scouting.
The Macke-Kenzie Gore Factor
When the Juan Soto trade went down, everyone talked about James Wood and CJ Abrams. Understandably so. But MacKenzie Gore was the sneaky-important centerpiece for the pitching staff. He’s the guy who has to prove that the Washington Nationals pitching rotation can develop a frontline starter without just buying one in free agency.
Gore is a fascinating watch. He’s got that high-effort, leg-kick-heavy delivery that looks like it belongs in a 1990s instructional video, yet the data is purely modern. His four-seam fastball has that "rising" life that hitters just cannot catch up to when it’s located at the letters. But here’s the thing: he struggles with efficiency. He’ll strike out the side on 15 pitches in the first and then labor through a 30-pitch third inning. It’s maddening.
If he finds a way to trust his secondary stuff—that sweeping slider and the occasional curveball—he’s an All-Star. Without that consistency? He’s a very talented number three starter who leaves the bullpen gassed by the sixth inning. The Nats are betting on the former.
Jake Irvin and the Art of the Leap
Nobody expected Jake Irvin to be this good. Let’s just be real about it. He wasn't a top-100 prospect. He didn't have the pedigree of a top-five pick. Yet, he’s basically become the rock of this group.
👉 See also: LeBron James Without Beard: Why the King Rarely Goes Clean Shaven Anymore
Irvin’s success comes down to a fundamental shift in how he uses his curveball. In 2024, he started throwing it with more conviction, using it as a primary weapon rather than just a "show-me" pitch to keep hitters honest. It works because it tunnels so well off his sinker. Hitters think they’re getting something heavy at the knees, and then the bottom falls out of the curve.
It’s proof that the Nats’ pitching lab is actually working. For years, the knock on Washington was that they couldn't develop anyone who wasn't a "can't-miss" prospect. Irvin breaks that mold. He’s a developmental win. He’s the kind of guy who eats 180 innings and keeps your team in the game every single time he touches the rubber.
The High-Ceiling Kids: Parker and Herz
Then you’ve got Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz.
Parker is sort of a throwback. He’s not blowing 100 mph past people, but he has this weird, deceptive delivery that makes 93 mph look like 98. Lefties hate him. He’s shown a poise that you rarely see from rookies, especially when pitching in high-leverage situations against the Braves or the Phillies.
DJ Herz is the wild card. He’s got some of the nastiest stuff in the entire organization, but his command is... well, it’s a work in progress. When Herz is "on," he looks like a left-handed version of Blake Snell. The changeup is a disappearing act. When he’s "off," he’s walking the leadoff guy and falling behind 2-0 to everyone.
The Washington Nationals pitching rotation depends on one of these two becoming a permanent fixture. You can't have a rotation full of projects, but having two young lefties with that kind of strikeout upside is a luxury most rebuilding teams would kill for.
✨ Don't miss: When is Georgia's next game: The 2026 Bulldog schedule and what to expect
Why the "Old Way" Had to Die
For a long time, the Nats relied on a very specific type of pitcher. Big, durable, power-righties. Think Jordan Zimmermann or John Lannan. But the game changed. Spin rates became the currency of the realm.
The current staff is much more varied. You have Gore’s verticality, Irvin’s North-South approach, and the funkiness of the younger lefties. This diversity is intentional. By throwing different looks at a lineup over a three-game series, the Nats are making it harder for divisional rivals like the Mets to get comfortable.
- Velocity is up: The average fastball in the rotation has climbed nearly 2 mph since 2021.
- Breaking ball usage: There’s a clear mandate to throw more sliders and sweepers early in counts.
- Aggression: The "nibbling" that defined the 2022-2023 era is mostly gone. They’re attacking the zone now.
The Problem with the Bullpen Bridge
You can have the best starters in the world, but if your bridge to the closer is out of commission, it doesn't matter. This is where the Washington Nationals pitching rotation often gets let down.
Because the starters are mostly young, they are on tight pitch counts. The "third time through the order" penalty is real, and the Nats’ coaching staff is very conservative with it. This puts an immense burden on the middle relief. We’ve seen too many games where a starter leaves with a 3-2 lead in the sixth, only for the game to be 7-3 by the seventh.
Addressing the rotation isn't just about the five guys starting; it's about the organizational depth that prevents them from being overtaxed.
The Role of Cade Cavalli
We have to talk about Cade Cavalli. He’s the "missing man." After undergoing Tommy John surgery, his return has been a slow burn. He has the highest ceiling of anyone mentioned so far. We're talking about a guy with a triple-digit heater and a power curve that looks like it was generated in a lab.
🔗 Read more: Vince Carter Meme I Got One More: The Story Behind the Internet's Favorite Comeback
If Cavalli comes back and is even 80% of what he was projected to be, the entire math of the rotation changes. Suddenly, you aren't asking Mitchell Parker to be a number three; he becomes a very overqualified number five. That’s how you build a contender. You push talent down the depth chart.
What Most Fans Get Wrong About Pitching Stats
People love looking at ERA. It's fine, I guess. But if you want to know if the Washington Nationals pitching rotation is actually getting better, you have to look at FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and K-BB%.
Last year, the Nats' rotation ERA was often inflated because of some subpar defensive positioning and a few blow-up innings. But their FIP suggested they were pitching much better than the scoreboard indicated. They were striking people out and limiting home balls. That’s usually a harbinger of a breakout.
Also, don’t ignore the "Quality Start" metric here. In the modern game, it’s trendy to say the Quality Start is dead. It’s not. For a team like the Nats, getting 6 innings and 3 runs or less is the difference between a functional season and a disaster.
Actionable Steps for the Next Phase
If you’re following this team, don’t just look at the wins and losses. That’s a trap. To see if this rotation is truly evolving into a playoff-caliber unit, watch these specific markers:
- First-Pitch Strike Percentage: If Gore and Herz can get ahead 0-1 consistently, their "put-away" pitches are elite enough to end at-bats quickly.
- Health Management: Watch how the team handles the innings limits for the younger arms in August and September. A drop in velocity usually signals fatigue, which led to some of the late-season collapses we've seen recently.
- The Third Offering: Specifically for Jake Irvin—keep an eye on his changeup usage. If he develops a reliable third pitch, he moves from "solid starter" to "frontline anchor."
- Draft Strategy: Look for the Nats to continue targeting collegiate arms with high spin rates. The "pitching lab" in West Palm Beach is finally producing results, and they need more raw material to work with.
The days of the "Big Three" in D.C. might be over, but the era of the "Deep Five" is just beginning. It won't be as flashy as the 2019 run, at least not yet. But the foundation is finally made of concrete instead of sand. Watch the development of the secondary pitches. That's where the real story is.