It is January 2026, and the honeymoon—if you can even call it that—is officially buried. Usually, a president gets at least a few months of "let’s see what they can do" before the public turns sour. But for Donald Trump’s second act, the numbers are telling a much grimmer story.
Honestly, the latest data is kinda shocking. According to recent Gallup and AP-NORC figures from the last few weeks, the trump approval rating low second term has bottomed out at around 36% to 42% depending on which poll you trust more. By comparison, he walked back into the Oval Office in January 2025 with a 47% approval rating. That’s a massive slide in just twelve months.
People are unhappy. You can feel it in the grocery store aisles and see it in the polling data. While his base remains fiercely loyal—roughly 84% of Republicans still have his back—the middle has completely fallen out. Independents, who basically decide elections in this country, have seen their support for Trump crater to 25%. That is the lowest it’s been in either of his terms.
What’s Driving the Trump Approval Rating Low Second Term?
Why is this happening now? Well, it’s mostly the economy, but not in the way he hoped.
Trump promised a "boom" that would make the 2010s look like a warm-up. Instead, we’ve hit a wall of high prices and trade friction. His signature move—massive tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China—has turned out to be a double-edged sword. While it was supposed to bring jobs back, 75% of Americans now say those tariffs are just making their daily lives more expensive.
It’s hard to sell a "boom" when bread and milk costs keep climbing.
- The Economy: Only 31% of people approve of his economic handling right now.
- Health Care: Costs have skyrocketed since federal subsidies for about 20 million people expired on New Year’s Day.
- Priorities: Roughly 60% of voters think he’s focused on the wrong things.
The Venezuelan Distraction and Foreign Policy
Then there’s the foreign stuff. You might have seen the headlines about the U.S. military moving into Venezuela or the weird talk about annexing parts of Greenland (again). While Trump’s team sees this as "America First" strength, the average voter seems exhausted. An AP-NORC poll found that 56% of people think he’s "gone too far" with military interventions.
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Basically, when you’re worried about paying your rent, hearing about a military capture of Nicolás Maduro feels like a distraction from the real problems at home.
The Republican Base is Starting to Flinch
This is the part that should really worry the White House.
Historically, Trump has been bulletproof with his own party. But even that armor is showing some cracks. Back in 2024, nearly 80% of Republicans thought he helped lower the cost of living. Fast forward to today, and only about 4 in 10 Republicans say he’s actually helping with their bills.
That is a huge shift in perception.
It’s not just the money, either. There’s a certain "chaos fatigue" setting in. Between the longest government shutdown in history last year—which ended with a thud in October—and the constant reshuffling of the Cabinet, even some of his supporters are starting to ask if this is the "winning" they were promised.
Polarization is the New Normal
We have to acknowledge that some of this is just the reality of 2026. We are a deeply divided country. The gap between how a Republican sees Trump and how a Democrat sees him is almost 86 percentage points.
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Comparing the Two Terms: A Stark Difference
If you look back at 2017, Trump actually had higher approval on the economy for most of his first term. Back then, he inherited a growing economy and didn't have the baggage of a post-pandemic inflation spike to deal with. This time, he’s the one in the hot seat when the bill comes due.
He’s also dealing with a much more skeptical Congress. Even with a Republican majority, the infighting over the federal budget and those expired health care subsidies has made it nearly impossible for him to pass "clean" legislation. The public sees the gridlock, and they blame the guy at the top.
Why History Matters Here
Second terms are notoriously hard. Think back to George W. Bush and the 2006 midterms, or even Reagan’s mid-80s slump. But Trump is unique because he never really had a "honeymoon" to lose. He started at a ceiling and has only moved toward the floor.
What This Means for the 2026 Midterms
We are staring down the barrel of the 2026 midterm elections, and the trump approval rating low second term is acting like a lead weight for the GOP. Democrats are currently leading on the generic congressional ballot by about 2 to 5 points.
If Trump can’t turn the economic narrative around by the summer, we could be looking at a total flip of the House and Senate. That would effectively turn him into a "lame duck" for the final two years of his presidency.
Here is what to watch for in the coming months:
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- Inflation Data: If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) starts to drop, Trump might be able to claw back some of those disgruntled Independents.
- The Tariff War: Watch if the administration backs off the Mexico/Canada tariffs to ease the cost of living.
- The "America First" Pivot: Does he stop talking about Greenland and start talking about grocery prices?
The reality is that 40% of the electorate says they are willing to change their mind if the economy improves. He isn't out of the game yet, but the clock is ticking.
Actionable Insights for Following the Polls
If you’re trying to make sense of the noise, don’t just look at one headline. Look at the "Approval Poll of Polls."
- Check the Aggregators: Sites like RealClearPolitics or 538 average out the "outlier" polls to give you a more accurate 41% or 42% average.
- Watch the "Strongly Disapprove" Number: This is currently sitting at 40% according to Pew. That’s a solid block of voters who are unlikely to ever come back to his side.
- Focus on Independents: If that 25% number moves up to 30%, it’s a sign the "Trump boom" might finally be arriving in the eyes of the public.
To get the full picture, you really need to look at local data in swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, where these economic frustrations are hitting the hardest. The national number tells a story, but the state numbers tell the future.
For now, the White House is in a defensive crouch. They’re calling the polls "rigged"—a familiar refrain—but the reality of a 36% approval rating is hard to ignore when you’re trying to run a country.
Next Steps for Staying Informed
Keep a close eye on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' upcoming reports. Those will likely dictate whether these approval numbers continue to slide or if the administration can find a foothold before the campaign season kicks into high gear. Check the monthly Gallup updates to see if the "wrong track" sentiment continues to hover near 70%, as that is often the most reliable predictor of midterm results.