The vibe around the marble pillars of the Supreme Court has shifted. If you’ve been watching the docket lately, it’s hard to ignore the feeling that the Supreme Court appears poised to weaken Voting Rights Act provisions that have stood for decades. It isn't just one case. It is a slow, methodical chipping away at the foundation of how Americans access the ballot box.
Justice Roberts famously wrote years ago that "the way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race." That sounds great on a bumper sticker. In practice? It has led to the gutting of Section 5 in Shelby County v. Holder and the narrowing of Section 2 in Brnovich. Now, we are looking at a court that seems ready to finish the job.
The Ghost of Section 5 and the New Targets
Remember the preclearance requirement? Probably not, unless you're a legal nerd. Before 2013, states with a history of racial discrimination had to get a "hall pass" from the federal government before changing their voting laws. Shelby County killed that. Since then, it’s been a free-for-all.
Now, the crosshairs are on Section 2. This is the part of the law that bans any practice that "results in a denial or abridgement of the right of any citizen of the United States to vote on account of race." It’s the last real tooth in the mouth of the VRA.
When the Supreme Court appears poised to weaken Voting Rights Act standards, they usually focus on "intent" versus "effect." Conservative justices are increasingly skeptical of "disparate impact" claims. They want to see a "smoking gun" of intentional racism. But let’s be real: modern politicians aren’t usually dumb enough to put "let's stop people of color from voting" in a memo. They use "election integrity" as a shield.
Why the "Totality of Circumstances" is Dying
Under the old rules, courts looked at the "totality of circumstances." They'd look at local history, socio-economics, and whether a law actually made it harder for a specific group to vote.
But the current majority—led by Alito and Gorsuch—seems to think that if a law is "neutral" on its face, it’s fine. Even if that "neutral" law happens to disproportionately kick 50,000 Black voters off the rolls because they use a specific type of identification or vote during a specific window. It’s a literalist interpretation that ignores how reality actually works on the ground in places like Georgia, Alabama, or Arizona.
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The Alabama Map Fight and Beyond
You might remember the Milligan case. For a second, it looked like the Court might actually protect the VRA. They told Alabama they had to draw a second Black-majority congressional district. Everyone breathed a sigh of relief.
Don't get too comfortable.
That ruling was a 5-4 squeaker. Roberts and Kavanaugh joined the liberals, but their opinions were incredibly narrow. They didn't say "we love the VRA." They basically said "Alabama, you went a little too far even for us."
The long-term trend remains hostile. The Court is moving toward a "colorblind" Constitution. In their view, considering race to protect voting rights is almost as bad as considering race to hurt them. It’s a paradoxical loop that leaves minority voters in a lurch.
The Independent State Legislature Theory Hangover
Even though the Court rejected the wildest version of the Independent State Legislature theory in Moore v. Harper, the door is still ajar.
There is this persistent idea among the conservative wing that state legislatures should have nearly unchecked power over elections. If the Supreme Court appears poised to weaken Voting Rights Act protections further, they will likely do it by giving more deference to these state bodies.
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They argue that federal courts shouldn't "micromanage" state elections.
Honestly, it’s a states' rights argument dressed up in 21st-century legalese. If you remove federal oversight, you’re basically trusting the people who benefit from gerrymandering to regulate themselves. Good luck with that.
What Happens if Section 2 Fails?
If Section 2 is neutralized, the VRA becomes a ceremonial document. It would still exist on paper, but it would be impossible to win a lawsuit under it.
You’d have to prove that a legislator was a literal white supremacist in a court of law to get a map overturned.
We’ve already seen the fallout from previous "weakening" events:
- Polling place closures: Thousands of locations shut down in minority neighborhoods.
- Voter purges: Mass removals of "inactive" voters that often hit marginalized communities hardest.
- Stricter ID laws: Requiring documents that cost money or time that low-income workers don't have.
The Court sees these as "standard' inconveniences of life." Justice Alito once suggested that if a law just makes voting slightly harder, it’s not a VRA violation. But for someone working three jobs without a car, "slightly harder" is the same as "impossible."
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The Logic of "Common Sense" vs. Legal Reality
There's a lot of talk about "common sense" in these opinions. The argument goes like this: "Most states have these rules, so they can't be discriminatory."
But that ignores the "why."
If a state passes a law specifically after a massive turnout of minority voters—like what happened after the 2020 election—is that a coincidence? The Court seems to think it is, or at least, they think it’s not their job to stop it.
They are shifting the burden of proof. It used to be on the state to prove their laws weren't discriminatory. Now, it’s on the voter to prove they are—and the bar is being set higher than a pole vaulter can reach.
Actionable Steps for the Current Landscape
The legal route is getting harder. That is a fact. But it’s not the only way to protect the right to vote. If the Supreme Court appears poised to weaken Voting Rights Act mechanisms, the strategy has to shift from the courtroom to the community.
- Focus on State Constitutions: Many state constitutions have stronger voting protections than the U.S. Constitution. Groups like the ACLU and the Brennan Center are increasingly suing in state courts rather than federal ones. This is the new "firewall."
- Support Legislative Reform: The John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act is sitting in Congress. It would basically fix what the Supreme Court broke. It’s a long shot in a divided government, but it’s the only permanent fix.
- Local Election Board Participation: A lot of the damage happens at the county level. Who decides where the polling places are? Who decides how many drop boxes there are? Local boards. Getting involved there is more effective than shouting at a Supreme Court justice who has a lifetime appointment.
- Voter Education: Since the rules are changing constantly, the best defense is an informed voter. Knowing exactly what ID is needed and where to go prevents "administrative disenfranchisement."
The Supreme Court isn't going to change its mind overnight. The current 6-3 split is a generational reality. Understanding that the Supreme Court appears poised to weaken Voting Rights Act protections is the first step in building a workaround that doesn't rely on a conservative judiciary to protect civil rights.
The strategy is now about resilience and local action. If the federal hammer is gone, we have to build our own shields at the state and local levels. That’s where the fight is now.