The Oscars are kinda broken. Let’s be real. Every year, people complain that the Academy is out of touch, the ceremonies are too long, and the "Best Picture" usually isn't even the best movie of the year. But for a specific corner of the internet, this is the Super Bowl. If you've spent any time scrolling through Film Twitter, you’ve definitely seen The Oscar Expert Twitter account popping up in your feed, likely arguing about whether a random supporting actress from an indie film has a "narrative" or if a blockbuster is getting "snubbed."
It’s chaotic. It’s loud. Honestly, it's the only way to survive the six-month-long slog that is awards season.
Most people see the Oscars as a single night in March. The reality? It’s a multi-million dollar political campaign that starts in August at the Venice Film Festival. Cole and Justin, the brothers behind The Oscar Expert, have basically built a mini-empire by treating the Academy Awards like a high-stakes sport. They aren't just guessing who will win; they're tracking precursors, analyzing guild votes, and navigating the weird, ego-driven waters of Hollywood PR.
What Most People Get Wrong About Oscar Tracking
A lot of folks think predicting the Oscars is about quality. It isn't. Not really. If it were just about the "best" movie, Aftersun would have cleaned up and The Zone of Interest would’ve been a frontrunner for every single category it touched. Predicting is actually about momentum.
On The Oscar Expert Twitter, the conversation usually revolves around "The Big Four" precursors: the Golden Globes, the CCAs (Critics Choice), the SAG Awards, and the BAFTAs. If a movie misses a SAG ensemble nomination, the "Expert" community goes into a total meltdown. Why? Because since the SAG Awards started, only a handful of movies have ever won Best Picture without that specific nomination.
It’s statistics disguised as cinema appreciation.
You’ll see Cole and Justin posting screenshots of their GoldDerby rankings. GoldDerby is basically the betting floor for this stuff. One day, a movie like Everything Everywhere All At Once is a "weird indie flick that won't get past the Academy's old guard," and three months later, it’s the inevitable juggernaut. Watching that shift happen in real-time on Twitter is fascinating because you see the exact moment the industry's "groupthink" sets in.
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The Power of the "Narrative"
What makes The Oscar Expert's coverage different from a traditional trade publication like Variety or The Hollywood Reporter is the focus on the narrative. In Hollywood, you don't just win because you acted well. You win because it's "your time."
- The Comeback: Think Brendan Fraser or Ke Huy Quan.
- The Overdue Veteran: Think Jamie Lee Curtis or Christopher Nolan.
- The Ingenue: The sudden rise of a newcomer like Ariana DeBose.
The Oscar Expert Twitter tracks these storylines like a soap opera. They know that a well-timed interview on a podcast or a tearful speech at an untelevised critics' dinner can do more for an Oscar campaign than the actual performance. It's cynical, sure, but it's how the gears turn.
Why Everyone Obsesses Over Their "Blind Spots"
If you follow the account, you know the brothers have very specific tastes. This is where the drama happens. Twitter thrives on disagreement. When the Oscar Expert guys rank a movie low—or worse, call a fan favorite "mid"—the mentions become a war zone.
Honestly, that’s the draw.
Most "professional" pundits are too scared to burn bridges with studios. They want to keep their access. Cole and Justin? They’ll tell you if a "prestige" movie is a boring disaster. That honesty is rare in a space that is usually just a giant marketing funnel. They’ve faced backlash for their takes on everything from The Whale to Maestro, but that friction is exactly what keeps their engagement numbers through the roof.
They also deep-dive into the "technical" categories that most people ignore. Best Sound? Best Film Editing? On The Oscar Expert Twitter, these aren't bathroom break categories. They are the keys to the kingdom. If a movie is winning Editing and Sound, it’s almost certainly winning Best Picture. They’ve turned a generation of film fans into amateur statisticians who know the difference between sound mixing and sound editing (well, before the Academy merged them, anyway).
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The "Brother" Dynamic and the YouTube Crossover
While the Twitter account is the hub for breaking news and instant reactions, it’s tethered to their YouTube channel. This is where the nuance happens. It’s one thing to see a tweet saying "Lily Gladstone is locked," but it’s another to hear a 20-minute breakdown of why the SAG vote shifted the entire race.
The sibling dynamic matters here. They disagree. Often. One might be a "stats" guy while the other is a "vibes" guy. This mirrors the internal conflict of the Academy itself—half of them are voting based on the data and what they think "should" win, and the other half are voting for their friends.
Real Talk: The Accuracy Factor
Are they always right? No. Nobody is.
The 2021 Oscars (the "Coda" year) and the 2017 "Moonlight/La La Land" debacle proved that the Academy can still surprise us. But the Oscar Expert Twitter usually sits in the top tier of accuracy on GoldDerby. They aren't just fans; they are analysts. They look at the "weighted" value of different awards. A BAFTA win is worth more than a Golden Globe because the BAFTA voters actually overlap with the Academy voters.
If you're looking for someone to tell you what movie is "the best," go to Letterboxd. If you want to know who is going to be holding a gold statue at 11:00 PM on a Sunday in March, you go to the experts.
How to Actually Use This Info for Your Oscar Pool
If you’re trying to win your office Oscar pool, following The Oscar Expert Twitter is basically cheating. Most people in your pool will vote for the movie they liked or the one they’ve heard of. That’s a losing strategy.
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To win, you need to understand "preferential balloting."
Best Picture is the only category that uses a preferential ballot. This means it’s not the movie with the most #1 votes that wins; it’s the movie that is the most "liked" across the board. It’s the "least hated" movie. This is why divisive masterpieces often lose to "nice" movies. The Oscar Expert guys spend weeks explaining this concept every February. They look for the "consensus" pick.
- Ignore the September hype. Movies that look like winners in the fall usually burn out by Christmas.
- Follow the Guilds. The actors (SAG), directors (DGA), and producers (PGA) are the people who actually vote for the Oscars. If the PGA picks a winner, it wins Best Picture about 80% of the time.
- Watch the "below the line" nominations. A movie that isn't nominated for its screenplay or its editing almost never wins the top prize.
The Future of Awards Season Discourse
Social media has changed how movies are campaigned. We now have "Twitter campaigns" where fans try to meme a performance into a nomination (remember Andrea Riseborough?). The Oscar Expert Twitter is at the center of that storm. They act as a filter. They can tell when a campaign is organic and when it’s a desperate last-minute push by a PR firm.
The landscape is shifting. With streaming services like Netflix and Apple spending tens of millions on "For Your Consideration" ads, the game is getting more expensive and more confusing. The Academy is also becoming more international. We’re seeing more wins for non-English language films, which is great for cinema but makes predicting way harder.
You can't just rely on the old "old white men in Los Angeles" logic anymore. You have to account for the French voters, the British voters, and the younger, more diverse class of members. Cole and Justin have been pretty vocal about adapting their "models" to account for this new Academy.
Honestly, the Oscars might be losing their TV ratings, but the "sport" of it has never been more popular. People love to rank things. They love to see their favorites win. And they love to complain when they lose. As long as Hollywood keeps handing out trophies, there’s going to be a need for people to translate the madness.
Actionable Steps for the Next Awards Season
Stop treating the Oscars like a surprise and start treating it like a race. If you want to get serious about following the circuit, start by diversifying where you get your info.
- Follow the precursors religiously. Bookmark the schedule for the SAG and DGA nominations. These are your primary data points.
- Watch the "smaller" films early. By the time January hits, you'll be overwhelmed. Use the "Expert" recommendations to catch the indies in November so you aren't playing catch-up.
- Track the "Longlists." The BAFTAs release longlists before their final nominations. This is the best way to see which movies have "hidden" support that isn't showing up in the headlines yet.
- Check the GoldDerby odds weekly. See who is rising and who is falling. If a frontrunner starts dropping in the odds after a major festival, find out why.
The Oscars are a game of endurance. It's about who can stay in the conversation the longest without annoying the voters. Whether you love the "Expert" takes or find them totally infuriating, they are the most consistent heartbeat of the awards season conversation. Dive into the threads, check the precursors, and maybe this year you'll finally beat your coworkers in the pool.