Education is weirdly stuck. We’ve changed how we buy groceries, how we communicate, and how we navigate the world, but if you walked into a high school today, it probably looks exactly like it did in 1954. Rowed desks. A ringing bell. A teacher at the front of the room. This is exactly what the most likely to succeed documentary tackles, and honestly, it’s a bit of a gut punch for anyone who thinks a high GPA is a golden ticket to a good life.
The film isn't new, but it's more relevant now than when it premiered at Sundance in 2015. Directed by Greg Whiteley and inspired by the work of Tony Wagner and Ted Dintersmith, it basically argues that our current school system is a relic of the industrial age. We are training kids to be compliant workers in factories that don't exist anymore.
What is Most Likely to Succeed Actually About?
It centers on High Tech High in San Diego. Forget everything you know about standard curriculum. There are no textbooks here. No bells. No lecture-based classes where you frantically scribble notes about the War of 1812 just to forget them twenty minutes after the final exam. Instead, the kids engage in project-based learning.
The stakes are high. One of the main threads follows a group of students trying to build a massive, complex mechanical art piece that demonstrates the rise and fall of civilizations. If they fail, they don't just get a bad grade; they fail in front of their entire community during an exhibition night. It's high-pressure. It's messy. Kids cry. They argue. They stay late because they actually care about the outcome, not because they’re chasing a "4.0" to put on a college application.
But here is the kicker: parents in the film are terrified. Even when they see their kids becoming more articulate, more creative, and more resilient, they worry. They ask the question every parent asks: "But will they get into Harvard?"
The documentary forces us to look at the "Pre-K to 20" pipeline and ask if we're just manufacturing stressed-out kids who are great at following instructions but terrible at thinking for themselves. Most of what we teach in schools can be looked up on a smartphone in three seconds. So, why are we still grading kids on their ability to memorize it?
The Problem with the "Cellophane" Curriculum
Tony Wagner, one of the experts featured heavily in the film, talks about the "Global Achievement Gap." He argues that there’s a massive chasm between what even our best schools are teaching and the skills young people actually need to thrive in the modern economy.
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Think about it.
The world doesn't care what you know anymore. Google knows everything. The world cares what you can do with what you know.
The most likely to succeed documentary highlights that the traditional "coverage" model of education—where you "cover" a huge amount of material superficially—is like wrapping knowledge in cellophane. It looks shiny, but it’s thin, and it doesn't stick. At High Tech High, they do the opposite. They go deep on a few things.
Why Standardized Testing is the Villain
The film doesn't hold back on its critique of the SAT and other standardized metrics. These tests were designed for sorting people, like grading eggs by size. They aren't designed to measure grit, empathy, or the ability to lead a team. Yet, we’ve built the entire American meritocracy around them.
Ted Dintersmith, the venture capitalist who executive produced the film, spent a year visiting schools in all 50 states. His takeaway was pretty grim: we are essentially "teaching to the middle" and crushing the outliers—both the kids who struggle and the ones who are exceptionally gifted in ways that don't involve fill-in-the-bubble sheets.
The Reality of the "New" Economy
We used to tell kids that if they worked hard, went to a good school, and got a degree, they’d be set. That's a lie now. Or at least, it’s a partial truth that's becoming more dangerous by the year.
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Automation and AI are eating middle-management jobs for breakfast. The jobs that are safe—for now—are the ones that require high-level "soft skills." We’re talking about:
- Critical thinking.
- Complex communication.
- Creative problem-solving.
- Collaboration across diverse teams.
If a kid spends 12 years being told exactly what to do, what to read, and how to answer, they are being trained to be replaced by an algorithm. The most likely to succeed documentary shows that when you give students agency, they don't just slack off. They step up. They find passions. They learn how to fail and, more importantly, how to pivot after failing.
Is High Tech High a Fluke?
Critics of the film often point out that High Tech High is a charter school with specific freedoms. Can this work in a massive, bureaucratic public school district in rural Ohio or inner-city Chicago?
It’s a valid question.
The film isn't saying every school should be exactly like High Tech High. It's saying every school should stop pretending it’s 1920.
There are "pockets of innovation" everywhere. You'll find teachers in traditional schools who are secretly running project-based units, trying to shield their students from the soul-crushing pressure of state testing. But the system itself is the "boss monster" they’re fighting. The documentary acts as a manifesto for these educators, giving them the language to explain to parents why "doing school" differently isn't just an experiment—it's a necessity.
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What Most People Get Wrong About the Film
Some people watch this and think it’s an attack on teachers. It’s actually the opposite. It’s an attack on the constraints placed on teachers.
Most teachers hate the "teach to the test" grind as much as the kids do. They want to be mentors, not proctors. The film argues that if we trust teachers more and give them the autonomy to design meaningful experiences, the "results" (even the traditional ones) often take care of themselves. Interestingly, High Tech High’s college acceptance rates and persistence rates are actually quite high, proving that you don't have to sacrifice the future to have a meaningful present.
Actionable Steps for Parents and Educators
If you’ve watched the most likely to succeed documentary or are just realizing the system is broken, you don't have to wait for a federal mandate to change things. You can start small.
For Parents:
Stop asking "What did you get on the test?" and start asking "What hard problem did you work on today?" or "How did you help someone else learn?" Shift the value away from the grade and toward the process. Look into alternative schooling options if your local district is a "test factory," but if that's not an option, advocate for "Exhibition Nights" in your current school where kids show off work rather than just report cards.
For Educators:
Start with "One Small Project." You don't have to throw out your entire syllabus. Take one unit and turn it over to the students. Give them a "driving question" and let them figure out the path to the answer. Use the film as a conversation starter in a PTA meeting or a professional development session to build a coalition of people who want change.
For Students:
Realize that your GPA is a measure of your ability to play a specific game, but it is not a measure of your worth or your potential. Build something. Start a business, code an app, write a book, or organize a community event. These "artifacts" of your learning will matter far more in the real world than a transcript ever will.
The documentary doesn't offer a perfect, one-size-fits-all solution because that’s the very thing it’s fighting against. It offers a direction. It suggests that if we want our kids to be "most likely to succeed," we have to stop treating them like widgets and start treating them like the innovators they naturally are. Success in 2026 and beyond isn't about having all the answers; it's about having the right questions and the guts to pursue them.