It is getting harder.
If you've been scrolling through Reddit or TLS lately, you’ve probably seen the panic. People with 170 LSAT scores are getting waitlisted at schools that used to be "safeties." It’s not just your imagination or a string of bad luck. We are currently navigating a massive law school applications surge that has completely upended the traditional math of getting into a T14—or even a T50—program.
The numbers are pretty wild. According to the Law School Admission Council (LSAC), we’ve seen cycles where applicant volumes didn't just tick up; they exploded by double digits. Why? Well, it’s a mix of a shaky economy, a hyper-politicized social climate that makes everyone want to "be the change," and a weirdly resilient job market for Big Law. Basically, when the world feels like it’s falling apart, people run toward the stability of a JD.
The Reality of the Law School Applications Surge
The data doesn't lie. During the most recent peaks, the LSAC reported that total applicants jumped significantly, sometimes as much as 13% or more in a single cycle. But here is the thing: it wasn't just more people applying. It was more high-scoring people applying.
When you have a surge, the "LSAT creep" becomes a nightmare. Schools that used to have a median score of 162 suddenly find themselves looking at a pool where the median is a 165. They aren't going to turn down those higher scores just to be nice. They want to protect their U.S. News & World Report rankings. This creates a trickle-down effect. The student who would have been a lock for Harvard is now fighting for a spot at UVA. The student who was a shoe-in for a full ride at a regional school is now paying sticker price or getting waitlisted.
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It's a domino effect. Honestly, it sucks for the applicant.
What is actually driving this?
It’s not just one thing. It's a "perfect storm" situation.
- The "Prestige" Safety Net: When the tech sector starts doing layoffs and AI starts making entry-level marketing jobs look shaky, law looks like a fortress. You get a license. You have a professional guild. It’s a hedge against the future.
- The "Great Resignation" Legacy: A lot of people in their mid-20s realize their current career path is a dead end. They look at the law school applications surge and think, "If I don't go now, I never will."
- Political Volatility: From Supreme Court rulings to election cycles, law is at the center of the conversation. It draws in people who are fired up.
Jeff Thomas from Kaplan once noted that during times of social and political upheaval, interest in legal careers tends to spike. We saw it after 2016, and we saw it again during the pandemic. People want tools to fight back, or at least tools to understand the rules of the game.
Admissions Officers are Drowning
Think about the person on the other side of the desk. An admissions officer at a school like Michigan or Vanderbilt used to have a predictable rhythm. Now, they are staring at thousands of extra files.
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What does this mean for you? It means "yield protection" is very real. If a school thinks you are using them as a backup because your scores are way above their median, they might waitlist you. They don't want to offer you a spot just for you to decline it and ruin their yield stats. It’s a cynical game, but it’s the one being played right now.
The law school applications surge has also made the personal statement more important than it’s been in decades. When everyone has a 170+ and a 3.8 GPA, the numbers stop being the tie-breaker. The tie-breaker is: Are you a weirdly interesting human?
Myths About the Current Market
People think a surge in applications means there will be a surge in lawyers three years from now, leading to a job market crash. That’s a bit simplistic.
The ABA (American Bar Association) keeps a pretty tight leash on how many students schools can actually take. Most schools aren't building new buildings or hiring dozens of new professors just because more people applied. They are just becoming more selective. The "class size" stays relatively stable, but the "barrier to entry" goes through the roof.
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So, while the law school applications surge makes getting in harder, it doesn't necessarily mean there will be an oversupply of lawyers in 2028. In fact, if you manage to get through the gauntlet now, you might find a less crowded job market on the other side because the "gate" was kept so strictly.
The LSAT vs. GRE Debate
A few years ago, everyone thought the GRE would be the great equalizer. With the surge, that’s less true. In a hyper-competitive cycle, most schools still prefer the LSAT because it’s a proven metric for their rankings. If you’re applying during a surge and you don't have an LSAT score, you are basically fighting with one hand tied behind your back unless your GPA is a 4.0 from a prestigious undergrad.
How to Pivot Your Strategy
If you are applying right now, you cannot use the "standard" advice from five years ago.
- Apply Early. No, Earlier: If applications open in September, your file should be in by October. During a surge, rolling admissions are brutal. By January, schools have already filled half their seats with "safe" bets.
- The "Why X" Essay is Mandatory: Even if it’s optional, write it. You have to prove to the school that you actually want to go there and aren't just spamming the Top 20.
- Lower Your Expectations (Slightly): If your numbers match a school's 25th percentile, you are likely looking at a rejection in a surge year. Aim for schools where you are at or above the 50th percentile for at least one metric.
Honestly, the stress is real. I’ve seen brilliant candidates get shut out because they only applied to "reach" schools during a peak year. Don't let your ego dictate your school list.
The Long-Term Outlook
Is this surge a permanent "new normal"? Probably not. Law school interest is cyclical. Eventually, the economy will stabilize, or the cost of tuition—which is getting out of hand—will scare enough people off to cool the market. But for the next few cycles, expect the "law school applications surge" to be the defining factor of the admissions landscape.
The legal profession is changing. With the rise of legal tech and shifting billing models, the JD is becoming a different kind of asset. But as long as it remains the "gold standard" for professional flexibility, the lines at the admissions office are going to stay long.
Actionable Steps for Applicants
- Check the Raw Data: Go to the LSAC "Current Volume Summaries" page. It updates weekly. If you see that applicants are up 20%, you need to broaden your school list immediately.
- Audit Your Resume: Look for "redundancy." If your resume looks exactly like every other political science major, you need to highlight a unique hobby or a weird job you had in college. Diversity of experience is a huge factor when scores are tied.
- Secure Your Recommendations Now: Don't wait until the surge is in full swing. Professors get burnt out too. Get your letters of recommendation locked in during the summer before you apply.
- Practice the "Addendum": If your GPA was dragged down by one bad semester, write a concise, no-excuses addendum. In a competitive year, admissions officers don't have time to guess why you got a C in Calculus. Tell them.
- Focus on the LSAT Writing: It used to be a joke. Now, because of concerns about AI-generated personal statements, schools are looking closer at the proctored LSAT writing sample to see if you can actually write under pressure. Focus on it.