Politics in Warsaw isn't just about policy; it's a full-contact sport. If you’ve been watching Central Europe lately, you know that the Law and Justice party Poland (Prawo i Sprawiedliwość, or PiS) is the sun around which the entire Polish political solar system rotates. Even now, after the seismic shift of the 2023 elections that saw Donald Tusk’s coalition take the reins of government, PiS remains the largest single party in the Sejm. They aren't going anywhere.
Honestly, most outsiders get Poland wrong. They see a simple "pro-EU vs. anti-EU" binary. It's way more complicated than that. PiS didn't just win power in 2015 because of some random fluke. They tapped into a deep-seated feeling among rural and small-town Poles that the post-1989 economic "miracle" had basically left them behind.
Founded by the twins Lech and Jarosław Kaczyński in 2001, the party started with a simple pitch: law, order, and a clean-up of the "post-communist" mess. It worked.
The Social Welfare Revolution of the Law and Justice Party Poland
Before PiS took over in 2015, Poland was the poster child for neoliberal success. GDP was up. Skyscrapers were rising in Warsaw. But if you lived in a village in Podkarpackie, you weren't seeing that cash. PiS changed the game with the "500 Plus" program.
It was simple: 500 PLN per child, every month. No strings attached.
Economists screamed. They said it would wreck the budget. But for families who had never felt the "wealth" of the EU transition, it was life-changing. This wasn't just a handout; it was dignity. Jarosław Kaczyński, the party's strategist, understood something the urban elites didn't: people care about their pockets and their pride. By combining conservative Catholic values with aggressive state spending, the Law and Justice party Poland built a voter base that is incredibly loyal.
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You’ve got to realize that PiS isn't just a political party; it’s a cultural movement. They lean heavily into the idea of "Polonia Restituta"—a restored Poland that doesn't have to apologize to Berlin or Brussels for its traditions. This "sovereigntism" is why they clashed so hard with the European Commission over the rule of law.
The Judicial War and the Brussels Standoff
The biggest headline-grabber for years was the overhaul of the Polish court system. PiS argued the courts were full of "old guard" judges who were out of touch and inefficient. Their solution? Change how judges are appointed.
The EU saw this as a direct attack on judicial independence. It led to years of legal battles, withheld COVID-19 recovery funds, and daily fines from the European Court of Justice. Whether you think PiS was "democratizing" a stagnant system or "dismantling" democracy depends entirely on which news channel you watch in Poland—TVN or the (formerly PiS-controlled) TVP.
Beata Szydło and later Mateusz Morawiecki, the two PiS prime ministers during their eight-year streak, often framed this as Poland standing up for its rights. They’d argue that France or Germany has similar influence over their judges, so why shouldn't Poland? It’s a compelling argument if you’re already skeptical of EU overreach.
Why 2023 Changed Everything (And Why It Didn't)
In October 2023, Poland saw record-breaking turnout. People stood in line until 3:00 AM to vote. While the Law and Justice party Poland actually came in first with over 35% of the vote, they lost their majority. They couldn't find a coalition partner. Nobody wanted to play with them.
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So, why did they lose ground?
- The Abortion Ban: The 2020 Constitutional Tribunal ruling that virtually banned abortion in Poland was a massive turning point. It galvanized young voters and women who felt the party had gone too far into theocratic territory.
- Inflation: Even the 500 Plus (later 800 Plus) couldn't keep up with the soaring cost of pierogi and petrol.
- Fatigue: Eight years is a long time in politics. People just wanted something new.
But here is the kicker: PiS still has millions of voters. They still control the presidency through Andrzej Duda (until mid-2025). They still have massive influence in the courts and the central bank. If you think the "Tusk era" means PiS is dead, you're dreaming. They are currently rebranding, focusing on "sovereignty" and attacking the new government's handling of migration and green energy policies.
The Security Card
One thing PiS did undeniably well was read the room on national security. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Poland became the "frontline state." The Law and Justice party Poland went on a shopping spree, buying Abrams tanks from the US and K2 tanks from South Korea. They pushed military spending toward 4% of GDP—the highest in NATO.
Even their harshest critics usually admit that the PiS government's response to the refugee crisis—welcoming millions of Ukrainians—and their rapid rearmament program was effective. It’s hard to argue with tanks when your neighbor is an aggressor. This "Security First" approach remains a core part of their identity.
Common Misconceptions About PiS
People often call them "Far Right." That’s a bit of a lazy label. On social issues? Sure, they are very conservative. They are tight with the Church. They aren't fans of LGBTQ+ rights. But on economics? They are further to the left than many "liberal" parties in Europe. They love state intervention, high social spending, and taxing big corporations.
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It’s "National-Social" in a literal sense (not the 1930s German sense, let’s be very clear). They want a strong state that takes care of its "own."
Another myth is that they want to leave the EU. They don't. "Polexit" is a political ghost story. Poles are among the most pro-EU populations in Europe because they like the open borders and the development funds. PiS just wants an "EU of Nations" rather than a "Federal Europe." They want to stay in the club but keep their own house rules.
The Future: What Happens Next?
The road ahead for the Law and Justice party Poland is bumpy but far from blocked. The 2025 presidential election is the big one. If a PiS-aligned candidate wins, they can veto almost everything the current government tries to do. If they lose the presidency, the party might face a real identity crisis or even a split.
Jarosław Kaczyński is in his 70s. The big question in Warsaw is: who comes after him? Is it the former PM Mateusz Morawiecki? Or someone more hardline like Zbigniew Ziobro? The internal power struggle is real.
Navigating the Polish Political Landscape
If you're trying to understand how this affects you—whether you're an investor, a traveler, or just a news junkie—here are the moves to make:
- Watch the Presidential Election: This is the only date that matters for the next 18 months. Until then, Poland will have "two governments"—the Prime Minister's office and the President's palace, often at war with each other.
- Don't ignore the "B-Side": To understand Poland, you have to look beyond Warsaw and Kraków. Look at the "Poland B" (the eastern and southern regions). That is the PiS heartland, and their grievances are real.
- Follow local independent media: Sources like Notes from Poland or Onet (with translation) give a much more nuanced view than the broad strokes you get in the BBC or CNN.
- Monitor the "Rule of Law" fixes: The new government is trying to undo the PiS judicial reforms to get EU cash flowing again. How they do this without breaking the law themselves is a massive legal tightrope walk.
The Law and Justice party Poland changed the country forever. They moved the "center" of Polish politics to the right and made social transfers a permanent fixture of the economy. Whether they are in government or in opposition, the "PiS way" of viewing the world—nationalist, protective, and traditional—is now a permanent part of the European landscape.