It was a Tuesday in August when the world watched a C-17 cargo plane taxi down a runway in Kabul while people clung to its sides. Honestly, that image redefined how we think about American foreign policy. When the U.S. began to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, it wasn't just ending a war. It was ending an era. People talk about it like it was a single event, but the reality is way messier than a calendar date.
The exit wasn't some sudden whim. It had been cooking for years. Presidents Trump and Biden both wanted out, though they went about it differently. By the time the final hardware was loaded and the last soldier, Major General Chris Donahue, stepped onto that plane, twenty years of blood and trillions of dollars were left in the rearview mirror.
The Doha Agreement: Where the End Really Started
You can't talk about the decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan without looking at February 2020. That’s when the Trump administration signed the Doha Agreement with the Taliban. It was a weird deal. The Afghan government wasn't even in the room. Basically, the U.S. promised to leave if the Taliban stopped attacking international forces and cut ties with Al-Qaeda.
Critics say this was the moment the Afghan government's fate was sealed. It signaled to everyone—the soldiers, the police, the local governors—that the Americans were done. If you're an Afghan soldier and you know your biggest supporter is packing their bags, your motivation to hold the line drops to zero. Fast.
The timeline was tight. It put the incoming Biden administration in a massive bind. Joe Biden had a choice: stay and restart a war with a Taliban that was now emboldened, or follow through with the exit. He chose the latter. He argued that the U.S. mission to "prevent Afghanistan from being a base for terrorist attacks" had been met years ago when Bin Laden was killed.
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Logistics, Chaos, and the Fall of Kabul
The actual execution of the plan to withdraw troops from Afghanistan in 2021 was, frankly, a disaster in terms of optics and humanitarian safety. Bagram Airfield, the crown jewel of U.S. power in the region, was vacated in the middle of the night in July. The Afghan commanders found out after the power was cut.
Then came the "Great Collapse."
The intelligence community expected the Afghan government to hold out for maybe six months. Some said 90 days. It took eleven. On August 15, 2021, Taliban fighters entered the presidential palace while Ashraf Ghani fled the country with suitcases of cash (though he denies it).
What followed was the HKIA (Hamid Karzai International Airport) evacuation. It was the largest non-combatant evacuation operation in history. Over 120,000 people were flown out in a few weeks. But the cost was staggering. A suicide bombing at Abbey Gate, carried out by ISIS-K, killed 13 U.S. service members and roughly 170 Afghan civilians. It was a brutal reminder that even as you leave a war, the war isn't finished with you.
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Why the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) Folded
People often ask why 300,000 Afghan troops disappeared against a Taliban force of maybe 75,000. It wasn't about bravery. It was about logistics.
- Contractor Support: The U.S. built the Afghan Air Force to rely on American contractors for maintenance. When we pulled the contractors, the planes stopped flying. No air support meant the outposts were sitting ducks.
- The "Ghost Soldier" Problem: Corruption was rampant. Commanders would list names of soldiers who didn't exist to pocket their salaries. On paper, the army was huge. In reality, it was a skeleton crew.
- Paychecks: Many soldiers hadn't been paid in months. If you can't feed your family, you aren't going to die for a government that’s already fleeing to the UAE.
The Humanitarian Ripple Effect
Since the U.S. chose to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, the human rights situation has cratered. This is the part that hurts to write about. Girls can't go to school past sixth grade. Women are banned from parks, gyms, and working for NGOs. The economy basically fell off a cliff because the U.S. froze billions in Afghan central bank assets to keep the money out of Taliban hands.
It’s a catch-22. If we help the people, we might be funding a regime we don't recognize. If we don't help, millions starve. Currently, the UN reports that over half the population faces acute hunger. It's a grim reality that lingers long after the last boots left the ground.
Geopolitical Shifts: Who Filled the Vacuum?
Nature hates a vacuum, and so does geopolitics. With the U.S. gone, China and Russia have been sniffing around. China wants those mineral rights—lithium, copper, rare earths. They haven't officially recognized the Taliban, but they’re talking. They want stability on their border and a piece of the Belt and Road Initiative.
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Russia is more concerned about security in Central Asia. They don't want extremism leaking into Tajikistan or Uzbekistan. Then there's Pakistan, who supported the Taliban for years as a way to have "strategic depth" against India, only to find that an empowered Taliban creates its own set of headaches on their border.
Lessons Learned (or Not)
The decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan highlighted the failure of "nation-building." We tried to export a Western-style democracy to a place with a deeply tribal, decentralized history. We spent over $2 trillion. For what?
Some military experts, like retired General David Petraeus, argued for a "small, persistent presence"—maybe 2,500 troops—just to keep the lights on and provide air support. They think that could have kept the status quo for years. Others, like Special Representative Zalmay Khalilzad, pointed out that the Taliban would have just kept fighting until we left anyway. There was no "win" left on the table.
Practical Steps for Policy Observers and Students of History
If you're trying to make sense of this for a paper, a debate, or just your own sanity, focus on these areas for deeper research:
- Study the SIGAR Reports: The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has the most brutal, honest data on why the money was wasted. Their "Lessons Learned" series is essential reading.
- Track the Afghan Adjustment Act: Thousands of Afghan allies are in the U.S. on temporary status. Following the legislative progress of this act tells you a lot about the domestic political fallout of the withdrawal.
- Watch the NRF: The National Resistance Front, led by Ahmad Massoud, still operates in the Panjshir Valley. While they aren't a massive threat to the Taliban yet, they represent the lingering internal opposition.
- Evaluate "Over-the-Horizon" Capabilities: The U.S. claims it can strike terrorists in Afghanistan from ships or bases in other countries. The 2022 strike on Ayman al-Zawahiri proved they can, but it's a lot harder without boots on the ground.
The withdrawal wasn't just a military maneuver; it was a psychological shift for America. It marked the end of the "Global War on Terror" mindset and a pivot toward "Great Power Competition" with China and Russia. Whether that pivot was worth the chaos in Kabul is a question historians will be arguing about for the next fifty years.